Page 5 of 7 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 LastLast
Results 61 to 75 of 95

Thread: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

  1. #61
    Location
    Toronto
    Rep Power
    8

    Dobber Sports Prodigy

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    I feel so validated. Haha. I have three of the top four in EP, Goose, and Debrincat.
    10 TEAM FANTRAX LEAGUE (Salary Cap)
    23 Man Roster (Keep 16) + 12 Minors

    G, A, PIM, SOG, STP, HIT, BLK, TK, FOW
    W, SV%, GAA, SO

    C: Tavares, Pettersson, Bergeron, Dubois, Trocheck, Gaudette
    RW: J. Anderson, Coleman, Garland, Puljujarvi, Hoglander
    LW: Tkachuck, Miller, Goodrow, Mangiapane
    D: McAvoy, DeAngelo, Krug, Borowiecki, Gustafsson, Lindgren
    G: Shesterkin, Samsonov

    Minors: Kahkonen, Sandin, Jarvis, Rasmussen, Elvenes, Abramov, Morin, Brisson, Clague, Gilbert, Hoglander, Timmins
    IR: Kucherov


  2. #62
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by deanyoungblood79 View Post
    I feel so validated. Haha. I have three of the top four in EP, Goose, and Debrincat.
    Yours is a multicat league, but you're in a good spot for next year!
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  3. #63
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Hey guys, checking in here. I've made some progress I'm very happy with for the rankings and salary projection on the skater side. I do have a bad habit though of not wanting to finish the last 5% of projects, so I will keep tweaking with it while I move onto another one. I'm looking at putting together a similar setup for goaltenders.

    Would love to hear what stats people want focused on, and any other comments/suggestions that there may be. I'll be looking to complete a rankings and salary projection set, hopefully done before free-agency opens.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  4. #64
    Rep Power
    11

    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    Hey guys, checking in here. I've made some progress I'm very happy with for the rankings and salary projection on the skater side. I do have a bad habit though of not wanting to finish the last 5% of projects, so I will keep tweaking with it while I move onto another one. I'm looking at putting together a similar setup for goaltenders.

    Would love to hear what stats people want focused on, and any other comments/suggestions that there may be. I'll be looking to complete a rankings and salary projection set, hopefully done before free-agency opens.
    This sounds great! I would suggest Wins/GAA/SV% as the bare minimum. Maybe throw Saves in there.

    In my opinion those are the most used categories.
    20tm multicat salary keeper
    19 Active/6 Reserve/ 33 Minors
    3C/3LW/3RW/3SKT/6D/1G
    Skaters: G/A/PlusMinus/PIM/SOG/PPP/SHP/Hit/Blk/FOW/FO%
    Goalies: W/GAA/SV/SV%/SHO

  5. #65
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackhawksFan View Post
    This sounds great! I would suggest Wins/GAA/SV% as the bare minimum. Maybe throw Saves in there.

    In my opinion those are the most used categories.
    I generally agree. I'm trying to sort out what the best way forward would be, as the skater list is points only, and for goalies that would mean just wins (I'm not going to include shutouts) with maybe a little extra lean towards the guys with higher GP numbers.
    However, unlike skaters going from points only to multicat, the goalie list would change to a much greater degree by including the ratio stats.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  6. #66
    Rep Power
    11

    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I generally agree. I'm trying to sort out what the best way forward would be, as the skater list is points only, and for goalies that would mean just wins (I'm not going to include shutouts) with maybe a little extra lean towards the guys with higher GP numbers.
    However, unlike skaters going from points only to multicat, the goalie list would change to a much greater degree by including the ratio stats.
    I'm assuming the less categories the easier the algorithm as well?

    This being said, maybe GP and Wins?
    20tm multicat salary keeper
    19 Active/6 Reserve/ 33 Minors
    3C/3LW/3RW/3SKT/6D/1G
    Skaters: G/A/PlusMinus/PIM/SOG/PPP/SHP/Hit/Blk/FOW/FO%
    Goalies: W/GAA/SV/SV%/SHO

  7. #67
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BlackhawksFan View Post
    I'm assuming the less categories the easier the algorithm as well?

    This being said, maybe GP and Wins?
    Generally, haha.
    But if you just go on GP and wins then guys like Dubnyk probably end up a lot higher than they should be.

    That's the balance.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  8. #68
    Location
    Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Administrator

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    Hey guys, checking in here. I've made some progress I'm very happy with for the rankings and salary projection on the skater side. I do have a bad habit though of not wanting to finish the last 5% of projects, so I will keep tweaking with it while I move onto another one. I'm looking at putting together a similar setup for goaltenders.

    Would love to hear what stats people want focused on, and any other comments/suggestions that there may be. I'll be looking to complete a rankings and salary projection set, hopefully done before free-agency opens.
    The projection models sound like a fun coding project.


    Contact me for Frozen Tools bug reports and inquiries
    Follow Frozen Tools on Twitter @FrozenTools
    Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust

  9. #69
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    The projection models sound like a fun coding project.
    A lot of trial and error
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  10. #70
    Location
    Beaumont, AB
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Icon

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    This is the first I have saw of this thread, no idea what happened there. It was an interesting and informative read. I play in a couple salary leagues so this should be helpful information.

    A few questions for you:

    How often do you tweak your formulas?

    Should the rankings tell you which player to draft first/next in a league with the listed settings?

    Does Connor McDavid being ranked 24th tell you your formulas are flawed? He should be the first pick in any fantasy hockey league with non-garbage league settings.

    I think your formulas are over-valuing salary and under-valuing points especially expected future points. Connor McDavid has been top 2 in the NHL in points in each of the past 4 seasons. It is pretty safe to say that barring injury, that is likely to continue for the next 10 years. That is worth every penny of his contract. Cap leagues are not won by teams who spend the least amount of money, they are won by teams that earn the most points.

    The other stat that would have me thinking of changing the formula is that 7 of the top 13 players are dmen. That is too high of a number. I understand position scarcity but in a 14 team league with these settings the best waiver wire forward will be about a 35-40 point guy while the best waiver wire dman will be about a 25 point guy. The best dman is about a 70-75 point guy while the best forwards are 100+ points. This should make forwards more valuable than dmen.

    I actually think doing goalie rankings will be easier than skaters. The reasons are that there are way less of them and there are also very few useful goalies on entry level contracts so the salary ranges among useful goalies should be much tighter.

    I do appreciate these rankings and will start looking at them more often but I just thought I would share my thoughts.

  11. #71
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Some fair points Chuck. I don't think this is a list that can be used without context though, and that shows from the things you pointed out like McDavid being ranked in the 20s and the Dman skew at the top. However, both of those points are why I think it is imperative to use the list, because it shows that there is a lot more value to be found in the rookie contracts, especially on defence, than what we are currently giving them credit for. Starting a new dynasty league, McDavid makes a great #1 pick, because of course you're not taking Adam Fox or Nick Suzuki ahead of him. I would be targeting them earlier than others would though, as having them will give the rest of my team more adaptability and value than McDavid on his own - but, I can get then later in a draft than McDavid, and that's what the list can't take into account.

    I don't have a set time(s) when I make updates. I'm still constantly tweaking things, but it is generally about where the final product will be. No more massive overhauls planned after the next ranking list comes out because I finally fixed the salary prediction model flaws I had been dealing with. `

    If you look at how the rest of the list plays out, for 10, 12, and 14 team league sizes, the number of defencemen and the total salary used are very close to where they should be capped to optimize for those league sizes. I already created a bit of an extra formula to bring up the middle-of-the-pack Dmen and drop the value of the top Dmen a little, so this is already the stunted version of their relative value. I tried my best to take out my biases when creating it, and just let the math talk, and I think that's what the initial versions had. However I agree with you to some extent that a little extra micro-managing is necessary to fit reality.

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    This should make forwards more valuable than dmen.
    I will just point out this one thought that I disagree with. The difference between the top F and a FA F may be bigger than on D, however the decline in D talent is much faster than on forward, so getting at least one of the top guys is imperative.

    Would be curious to hear your thoughts on all that.

    And yes, creating the initial goalie list will probably be easier because the amount of time to input the player pool and create all of the settings will take less time!
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  12. #72
    Location
    Nova Scotia
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Deity

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    How often will this be updated?
    10 Team, Points Only, Cash League

    25 Man Roster (no position), top 20 point getters count at end of month
    Keep 20/25 at seasons end, Cut 5 to FA for redrafting
    Goalie points W=2pt L=-1pt SHO=2pt

    Stamkos, Tavares, Eichel, Mercer, JRobertson, RThomas, Kucherov, Nugent-Hopkins, Tuch, KConnor, Necas, Point, Konecny, SJarvis, Cozenz, Morrissey, Bouchard, Josi, Novak, Tolvanen, Peterka, Brink

    G- Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger


    "Cleavage is like the sun. You can look, but dont stare.. Unless you're wearing sunglasses."

  13. #73
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Axeman33 View Post
    How often will this be updated?
    The goalie version? Haven't actually gone to Dobber to see if he is interested, but I can either just merge the goalies in with the skaters and then publish it as one complete list or do it as a separate one maybe every second month offset from the skater update.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  14. #74
    Location
    Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Administrator

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    A lot of trial and error
    How much of your formula is judgment and how much is pure numbers? I might be able to help once we get our historical stats in order. Still some work to do on that front...


    Contact me for Frozen Tools bug reports and inquiries
    Follow Frozen Tools on Twitter @FrozenTools
    Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust

  15. #75
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    How much of your formula is judgment and how much is pure numbers? I might be able to help once we get our historical stats in order. Still some work to do on that front...
    50/50?
    Basically I put in a lot of prior seasons, and thetthe contracts theytthey signed and try to mould an algorithm around that. So it's judgement to fit the numbers haha. And then from there it's another dash of judgement based on how things are changing and looking moving forward.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •