Page 1 of 2 1 2 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 29

Thread: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

  1. #1
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Hey all,

    I know a lot of people play in cap leagues, but it seems like there are never any rankings specifically tailored to cap leagues where a player's contract is taken into account for their value. We know guys like MacKinnon or Konecny are bargains on their contracts from last season, but numerically the best thing we come up with to show that is just a straight division of points/cap. Konecny isn't four times more valuable than MacKinnon though, even with the numbers from a simple calculation pointing that way. So, I have a few questions for you:

    1) Would you have interest in me trying to put together a rough formula rankings list for this like what Dobber does for skaters/goalies on a monthly basis?
    1) a. If so, give me some details on settings that may work best: One-year vs Keeper, Points only, etc.

    2) Has anyone ever tried this, and/or seen someone who did and found a decent framework?

    Looking forward to a few responses. Cheers!
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  2. #2
    Rep Power
    15

    Dobber Sports Initiate

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    I think this would be amazing! I would imagine most leagues that use a salary cap are keeper leagues and that's what I would like to see personally. My main and usually only league (unless I hop in some one-year leagues) is a 24-team cap dynasty league so I think a ranking like this would be extremely helpful. Points-only rankings would probably be easiest for you as there is likely a wide array of league formats for multi-cat.
    24 Team H2H Pts Cap Dyn
    4C 4LW 4RW 6D 1G 4B 27M

    G (1) A (1) +/- (.25) PIM (.05) SOG (.05) PPP (.5) HIT (.05) BLK (.05) FOW (.01)
    W (1.75) GA (-1) SV (.1) SO (3)

    C: Seguin, Kuznetsov, Trocheck, Johansen
    LW: Benn, Marchessault, Lindblom, Dickinson, Kubalik
    RW: Fiala, Fabbri, Bjorkstrand, Tolvanen, Volkov
    D: Klingberg, Jones, Chabot, Spurgeon, C Miller, Theodore, Pilut
    G: Hellebuyck, Ullmark

    C: Elvenes, Kostin, Vorobyev, Spacek, Jones, Eyssimont, Daviddson, Harper, Shvyrev, Farinacci
    LW: Dorofyev, Koivula, Shalagin, Dugan, Cates, Ranta
    RW: Fortier, Blichfeld, Legare, Tieksola
    D: Laaksonen, Gilbert, Galvas
    G: Sorokin, Samsonov, Knight, Daccord


  3. #3
    Big Baby's Avatar
    Big Baby is online now
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    1,318
    Location
    Beeton, ON
    Rep Power
    26

    Dobber Sports Ace

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Best thing I’ve heard in a while. Definitely filling a need for many people
    6 Team no limit Keeper. Cap league $100m
    Points only G/A=1, Hattrick = +3, Wins = 2, SO = +3, OTL/SOL = +1
    12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies, 6 Reserve (any position)

    Forwards
    Crosby $8.7m, Marchand $6.1m, Eichel $10m, Pastrnak $6.6m,
    Kessel $6.8m, Atkinson $5.8m, Nylander $6.9m, Boeser rfa
    Svechnikov $3.5m, Keller $1.6m, Laine rfa, Kase $2.6m, Larkin $6m, Mantha $3.3m

    Defense
    Carlson $8m, Klingberg $4.2m, Dahlin $3.7m, Heiskenen$3.3m,
    Chabot $1.2m

    Goalies
    Holtby $6.1m, Gibson $6.4m, Talbot $4.1m





  4. #4
    Location
    Dryden, Ontario.
    Rep Power
    40

    Administrator

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Fantasy Hockey Geek has a tool similar to this using their formula, applying the various potential stats and either projected or current stats that give each player a Value/$ ranking. I think about a 3rd of the UHL uses this, perhaps more but unsure on the new owners from the past year or two.
    Follow me on Twitter@SteveLaidlaw

    https://image.ibb.co/k3o8Sa/dobber_banner_sig.jpg

  5. #5
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Thanks for the feedback guys. My initial thinking is assuming a fairly standard league setup in terms of F and D having relatively equal scarcity value, a cap equal to that of the NHL, assume it's a keeper league to account for youth value, and points only (trying to get into other stats would overcomplicate it and make it a lot less applicable for most).

    Steve, honestly I don't really use FHG (not even sure I have a login), as I generally just follow my own knowledge/rankings. Do you find the FHG formula is far and away more useful than points/dollar?
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  6. #6
    Location
    Dryden, Ontario.
    Rep Power
    40

    Administrator

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    Thanks for the feedback guys. My initial thinking is assuming a fairly standard league setup in terms of F and D having relatively equal scarcity value, a cap equal to that of the NHL, assume it's a keeper league to account for youth value, and points only (trying to get into other stats would overcomplicate it and make it a lot less applicable for most).

    Steve, honestly I don't really use FHG (not even sure I have a login), as I generally just follow my own knowledge/rankings. Do you find the FHG formula is far and away more useful than points/dollar?
    Yes, the FHG formula is a lot better than pure P/$. Once you've been in this sort of league for a while you can figure out where people would rank on your own without consulting FHG. FHG also has it's own bugs where certain players get outsized credit for smaller contributions due to weirdness, but those can be easily written off.
    Follow me on Twitter@SteveLaidlaw

    https://image.ibb.co/k3o8Sa/dobber_banner_sig.jpg

  7. #7
    stevegamer's Avatar
    stevegamer is online now
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Posts
    3,996
    Location
    Philadelphia area
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Star

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    I think you will find that there will be some useful work done in this area in fantasy baseball already. Rotisserie baseball started with auction leagues, assigning dollar values, and planning budgets. Admittedly it rarely uses actual contracts, but there are probably some thoughts there that you can apply to your work in this area.

    I'd also recommend trying to figure out a simple league setup to play around with - I'd guess that points only makes sense. You will also need to set some sort of "standard" league cap, and I'm not sure what that would be, but maybe there's some kind of data in Fantrax or the like. If not, you could put up polls asking for users to give you data on their leagues, but you'll need more than a simple poll to weight for people in multiple leagues with similar cap numbers.

    Good luck.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: F Andersen
    Backup G: Holtby
    D: Hainsey, M Reilly, Carlson, Gustafsson, Klingberg, Letang,
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, MacKinnon
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, Guentzel
    F3: Benn, Seguin, Pavelski,
    F4: Point, Stamkos, Tavares

    Bench:
    G: Bobrovsky
    D: Gardiner, Gostisbehere, Schultz, Werenski
    F: Bailey, Johnsson, Killorn, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas, Tuch, Voracek

    Reserve: Datsyuk

  8. #8
    Rep Power
    4

    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    This is a great idea.
    31 Teams
    Dynasty
    Cap
    Rest TBD

  9. #9
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Update: Project is a go.

    Dobber has agreed that this is something that would add value to the site, and we would run it out through DobberHockey on a semi-monthly basis (every two months).

    I'm starting to put together my data, and organizing what kind of variables and concepts I'll be using. The basis of it will likely be a points-only keeper league, while further assumptions are in the works.

    Sample opinion question: Who has more value in your leagues
    Player A - Age 24, 76GP, 54 points, $3,000,000 cap hit
    Player B - Age 28, 82GP, 77 points, $7,500,000
    Player C - Age 25, 81GP, 39 points, $925,000

    *All are forwards, which I likely won't be distinguishing between for the rankings.

    This is the kind of thing that I'm going to sort out, and the list should be able to help you with.

    Ideally I am hoping to have the first list out at some point close to the beginning of the season. At the latest, I'll have some in season data in there, and pump the list out for the early season trade flurry in mid-November.

    Answers: Player A) Andreas Athanasiou, B) Ryan O'Reilly, C) Frank Vatrano

    Still open to thoughts, suggestions, etc.
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  10. #10
    Location
    Prairies
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Titan

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    My main advice is to start theoretically.
    If you get into power-churning stats... you'll miss the absolutely key item - which is the "algorithm".
    Cap league value is about as complex as it gets.

    So, don't start with looking at current NHL players.
    Benchmark a few theoretical players, that you see from looking around the NHL.


    JohnnySuperstar. 90pts, $10m. (he scores 9pts per $1m of contract)
    TimmyTwoliner. 65pts, $6.5m. (he scores 10pts per $1m of contract)
    ToddTweener. 50pts, $4.5m. (he scores 11pts per $1m of contract)
    KidEntry. 30pts, $1m. (he scores 30pts per $1m of contract)

    The straight-metric that most agree is paramount in cap leagues is, obviously, best production per dollar: bang for your buck.
    And one find this at the ELC-level players that can get 30-40pts and have that small contract.

    But, if you have a roster of 20players and $80m cap, it obviously doesn't make sense to roster 20-30pt players for $20m... and leave $60m in unused cap.

    So the thinking changes... because the amount of "CAP" is league dependent... and one needs to use every $ to really compete.
    So how does one fill their entire CAP expenditure MOST wisely?

    The theory I use is to split my cap allocation into portion and consider a bundled-group of players.
    For the example above, say you have $11m for TWO players... which PAIR gives you best performance.

    The HIGH-LOW of JohnnySuperstar ($10m) and KidEntry ($1m) nets you 120pts.
    The MIDDLE group of TimmyTwoliner ($6.5m) and ToddTweener ($4.5m) nets you 115pts.
    That's one way to see it.

    Of course, the guy that is going to get the most significant raise is KidEntry... once that ELC expires *poof*, up to $3m or $4m.
    And then things change.

    So there's not only Prod/$, and how to use a full cap, but also seeing into the future with how many years are left on a contract.

    For this case, I still advocate HIGH-LOW... because the easiest thing in CAP is to roster a bunch of superstars in combo with ELC players.
    Once those ELC players perform and get paid, you can move them out and replace them for incoming ELC players, who are always available at that ELC $925k (or whatever).
    That's easy cap replacement ($1m player out... go find a $1m player to replace/flex-in)... and the "HIGH" players usually have nice, long 7/8 year contracts.

    But cap-eval, even for "straight-points" has (I think) more variables than non-cap multi-cat league eval.
    So it's massive challenge to try to ballpark a generic value that is somewhat relevant to leagues with different league sizes (12-24-30 teams), league rosters (12-18-25 players), and different caps ($80m-$100m-$120m).

    Kudos to you, but you should feel insanely overwhelmed once you get into it.
    All I have to say is... Good Luck, friend!!!

  11. #11
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Appreciate that input! You hit the nail on the head with some of the issues of the project, as well as where I'm going to go with it.
    To sum it up, the biggest points are:
    1) How best to assign a dollar value to production, while fitting the dollars under a limit
    2) How to take into account the fluctuations of new contracts
    3) How to make a list that covers all types of league formats.

    Here's a short version of my thoughts on each:
    1/3) Simply I can't cover every league size. Generally I will end up selecting one league size, maybe 14 teams, something like 12F and 6D, and assigning $72M in cap per team (sticking with NHL cap minus $8.5M for goalies).
    18 skaters x 14 teams = 252 players
    72M x 14 teams = 1008M
    Ideally I manage to find a ranking system that has the top 250 players earning about $1B (and maybe even the top 125 players are about $500M). That's my grouping to show that I'm not just taking superstars and killing my cap, but nor am I only taking only the ELCs, which would happen with a linear formula.

    2) This is probably the toughest part, and it will require inputting every player's contract (years and $$s), and then finding a way to account for percentage cap increase at the end of a contract, versus the change in production a player exhibits while coming up to, or leaving their prime years. Easier said than done, but I have the means and motivation to sort it out!
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  12. #12
    Location
    Sudbury, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Administrator

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Once upon a time I had a (somewhat) working formula that required too much human thought to be considered a formula. It was the first step in a multi-step process.


    Contact me for Frozen Tools bug reports and inquiries
    Follow me on Twitter @DH_EricDaoust

  13. #13
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by ericdaoust View Post
    Once upon a time I had a (somewhat) working formula that required too much human thought to be considered a formula. It was the first step in a multi-step process.
    If you're open to sharing (either the formula or the ideas/variables behind it) I would be interested to compare some notes
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  14. #14
    Big Baby's Avatar
    Big Baby is online now
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    1,318
    Location
    Beeton, ON
    Rep Power
    26

    Dobber Sports Ace

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    How about simplifying it a bit.

    Player age
    Length of contract
    Player p/g last 2 years
    Player p/g divided by AAV

    Essentially points per $$ (thousand, million... )

    Defenders weighted heavier than forwards and forwards weighted heavier than goalies.

    Stats can simply be

    F- g=1 a =1

    D- g= 1.5 a= 1.5

    G- w= 0.5

    Maybe start with that and post it. Then we can give input and you could refine it.

    This is a ranking list that I would happily pay for every year.
    6 Team no limit Keeper. Cap league $100m
    Points only G/A=1, Hattrick = +3, Wins = 2, SO = +3, OTL/SOL = +1
    12 Forwards, 6 Defense, 2 Goalies, 6 Reserve (any position)

    Forwards
    Crosby $8.7m, Marchand $6.1m, Eichel $10m, Pastrnak $6.6m,
    Kessel $6.8m, Atkinson $5.8m, Nylander $6.9m, Boeser rfa
    Svechnikov $3.5m, Keller $1.6m, Laine rfa, Kase $2.6m, Larkin $6m, Mantha $3.3m

    Defense
    Carlson $8m, Klingberg $4.2m, Dahlin $3.7m, Heiskenen$3.3m,
    Chabot $1.2m

    Goalies
    Holtby $6.1m, Gibson $6.4m, Talbot $4.1m





  15. #15
    Location
    Brampton, Ontario
    Rep Power
    40

    Dobber Sports Jedi

    Default Re: Full Ranking of Player Value in a Cap League - Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Baby View Post
    How about simplifying it a bit.

    Player age
    Length of contract
    Player p/g last 2 years
    Player p/g divided by AAV

    Essentially points per $$ (thousand, million... )

    Defenders weighted heavier than forwards and forwards weighted heavier than goalies.

    Stats can simply be

    F- g=1 a =1

    D- g= 1.5 a= 1.5

    G- w= 0.5

    Maybe start with that and post it. Then we can give input and you could refine it.

    This is a ranking list that I would happily pay for every year.
    That could work as a very simplified version, but I'm going to get a little more into it than that

    Also how are you working contract length and age in? Is older a positive or negative? Is a longer contract a negative or positive?
    Capped writer for DobberHockey. Find the latest articles here: http://www.dobberhockey.com/Table/Hockey-home/Capped/
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •