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Thread: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by butch View Post
    pump the brakes on some of your predictions

    lee's probably 7 m x 6 , no idea if lehners even going to resign but if he does its probably in the bishop range of 5x5
    I did say "if they re-sign Lehner".

    As for Lee, he is the captain and top goal scorer on this team the last two seasons. If they give Nelson $6 million a year, Lee will be insulted at anything less than $7 or $8 million a year. He is a far superior player than Nelson.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by SeaDawg View Post
    I did say "if they re-sign Lehner".

    As for Lee, he is the captain and top goal scorer on this team the last two seasons. If they give Nelson $6 million a year, Lee will be insulted at anything less than $7 or $8 million a year. He is a far superior player than Nelson.
    you cant even really compare the two players so to state that one is far superior to the other is a stretch . Lee does his thing along the wall / net front / leadership while Nelson has pretty good wheels for a 6'4 guy , has a heavy wrist shot , makes several subtle defensive plays and can probably be the best defensive forward on the team if Trotz wanted him to focus solely on that . I'd actually say that Nelson is the better overall player who will still be affective as a 34 year old in the 6th year of this deal .

    Lee / Isles have been hung up on term according to friedman . Lou got burned with his Ryan Clowe(wheels fell off fast) ufa signing years ago so he's probably worried that Lee might become too big of an albatross on that back 9 of a long term deal , yet still very affective for the first half of it ........

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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Lee is a tough one.
    He's about to turn 29 years old (July 3rd) - and the tools he brings aren't all that dissimilar from Wayne Simmonds.
    He's certainly a grittier version of James Neal... but, yes, I went there.

    If I'm a GM, I'm offering Lee about $7.5m x 4yr... but I don't know about beyond that.
    (my way of saying: I agree about NYI's hesitancy about long-terming Lee)
    Or if Lee wants more total, perhaps $6.5m x 6yr.

    Come July 1st...
    There's always GMs under the gun to look like they are doing something... or be fired.
    One of those guys is going to give Lee $7.5m x 7yr: my prediction for what Lee gets.

    I don't think Poile is under fire in Nashville... by any means... but I think he'll let Simmonds (who didn't fit) go to UFA and make a big offer to Lee.
    Nashville was an NHL worst on the PP at 12.9%. It could be reasoned that Lee (10ppg, 14ppg, 9ppg, last three years) would be expected to help fix that.
    Montreal was 2nd last, FWIW... at 13.2%.

    http://www.espn.com/nhl/statistics/t...t/seasontype/2

    ps. Yes, 3rd last was NYI...

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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Those are my thoughts re: Lee. Big body, leadership, goal scorer...reminds me of JvR, Simmonds, etc. I think someone pays him $7-$8 million a year. He might not get the term, though it wouldn't shock me if he does. Teams will regret signing him to a 6+ year contract.

    I could see the Islanders do it, though. They will reward Lee for the veteran he is, and pay for it down the road, like a lot of teams do (Marleau in Toronto, for example). I think teams know the player won't be worth the contract in the final years, but it is sort of like a reward for what they bring in the younger years. It is kind of a way to circumvent the cap. If not for cap issues, teams would pay someone like Lee more money and less term. However, instead of giving up a monster contract with big money and short years, they spread it over term.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by SeaDawg View Post
    $6 million a year for a 25 goal, 25 assist 2nd line center. I guess that's the going rate, but players like Point and Aho are loving this.
    Well yrs ago it was established that a veteran in a Union environment with 2nd line production as a UFA would be in the $5mil range. Think Gionta in Montreal.

    This deal has absolutely zero effect for a guy like Aho or Point. They're elite talents coming off their ELC deals, and @ 20-21yrs old they're entering their prime. Nelson is 27 with 480 games with moderate production.

    Aho & Point's comparables will be Drasaitl/Matthews.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by crazedcanuck View Post
    Well yrs ago it was established that a veteran in a Union environment with 2nd line production as a UFA would be in the $5mil range. Think Gionta in Montreal.

    This deal has absolutely zero effect for a guy like Aho or Point. They're elite talents coming off their ELC deals, and @ 20-21yrs old they're entering their prime. Nelson is 27 with 480 games with moderate production.

    Aho & Point's comparables will be Drasaitl/Matthews.
    Obviously I'm not saying that Nelson is a comparable for Aho/Point. What I was suggesting is if a 50 pt center can earn $6 million a year, Aho and Point will want $10 million a year!
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by SeaDawg View Post
    Obviously I'm not saying that Nelson is a comparable for Aho/Point. What I was suggesting is if a 50 pt center can earn $6 million a year, Aho and Point will want $10 million a year!
    They were probably already asking for eight figures long before Nelson signed.

    I can't see Point getting that much just due to Tampa's tight cap situation, he might settle for around what Kuch is making. Aho though can probably get that number from Carolina since they've got the cap space and he's the face of their future at the moment. At least until Svech explodes and comes looking for $10M himself in a couple years.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Lee is a tough one.
    Come July 1st...
    There's always GMs under the gun to look like they are doing something... or be fired.
    One of those guys is going to give Lee $7.5m x 7yr: my prediction for what Lee gets.
    sounds about right , 7.5 x 7 on the open market .

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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Who knew one season over 50 points was worth 36 million... at 28 is this his peak? Can’t imagine lightning striking twice same as Filpulla and Cizikas combining for 37 goals - have to think it’s money better spent elsewhere

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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    One thing to remember... Nelson is 6'4" - he just crested 400 career games... So if Striker's 'big man' theory is correct.
    Nelson should be primed for his break out season next year 60+ being a real possibility.
    if so, then Nelson becomes a solid sleeper in 1yr leagues and a hold in cap leagues, earning his salary.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    One thing to remember... Nelson is 6'4" - he just crested 400 career games... So if Striker's 'big man' theory is correct.
    Nelson should be primed for his break out season next year 60+ being a real possibility.
    if so, then Nelson becomes a solid sleeper in 1yr leagues and a hold in cap leagues, earning his salary.
    I actually like this point of view on it. Especially if he can get a few more offensive minutes if Eberle and/or Lee leave and free up the top PP time.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Nelson already exceeded 50% of pp time this season so unless they go with a real top unit of around 65% then I’m not sure the additional pp points will be there
    Experience is the teacher of all things.


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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by FrozenInferno View Post
    They were probably already asking for eight figures long before Nelson signed.
    Possibly (probably?) they were...this is just more evidence against them earning less that they deserve (comparatively speaking). For those of us in cap leagues, we are all on pins and needles waiting to see what these high-end RFAs sign for (notably Connor, Boeser, Aho, Tkachuk, Marner, Point, Laine) and any of us hoping against the odds for a lower AAV have fewer and fewer reasons to be optimistic when players like Nelson sign for more than expected.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    One thing to remember... Nelson is 6'4" - he just crested 400 career games... So if Striker's 'big man' theory is correct.
    Nelson should be primed for his break out season next year 60+ being a real possibility.
    if so, then Nelson becomes a solid sleeper in 1yr leagues and a hold in cap leagues, earning his salary.
    stranger things have happened, but according to Striker's own formula, Nelson needs to improve by 25% to qualify...after a 53 pt season, he'd have to score 66+ pts next year. I don't see that happening, considering Barzal only scored 62 under Trotz.
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    Default Re: [RE-SIGNED] NYI Brock Nelson - 6 years, 36 Million

    Quote Originally Posted by SeaDawg View Post
    stranger things have happened, but according to Striker's own formula, Nelson needs to improve by 25% to qualify...after a 53 pt season, he'd have to score 66+ pts next year. I don't see that happening, considering Barzal only scored 62 under Trotz.
    how much was Trotz vs. how much was sophomore slump? If Nelson only improves to 62pts... maybe he doesn't reach that 25% threshold. but he still becomes valuable in keeper leagues.
    he was much more consistent last year... there's lots to build upon for next season.

    He also only had 35 under Weight last year - that was when Barzal went over 80. Not sure the coach makes much difference when comparing two seasons b2b.
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