13 Keepers - Help Required

[First Round Pick]

Hey everyone,

So in my daily H2H league (not my WHL team), with stats G, A, PIM, SOG, STP, H+B, GWG, W, SV, SV%, SHO, I need to keep a total of 13 players. My team has struggled and finished 12 of 16 last year, and while I have some top-end prospects they are either D or G. Goaltending is ridiculously difficult to come by, prices are well above any other league I'm involved in.

Roster format is 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 5 Reserve

Keepers are based any player who has played 120GP or less, goalies 80GP or less, with a supplemental draft to fill in the remaining roster. Once a minor leaguer plays that number, they must automatically be brought up to the playing roster or be dropped.

My current roster of keeper-eligible players is below (16, need to be cut to 13), no-brainer keepers in bold.

C - Eichel, Aho, Duchene, Getzlaf, Karlsson
LW - Vrana
RW - Palmieri, Nyquist, Fiala
D - Girard, Montour, Nurse, Provorov, Dunn, Sanheim
G - Rask

As you can see, I can go many different ways with this. Unfortunately the quick minors cut-off after 1.5 seasons really hinders my building of this team as I cannot keep all of my young D. I have attempted to move one of them with very little engagment at this moment, ie: Provorov for a 3rd round entry pick.

The strength of my minors are in D (Makar, Hronek, Fox, Mahura, Addison) and G (Georgiev, Oettinger, Dell), my only winger of note is Tolvanen. Guys like Kyrou, Kunin and JAD could be moved to W if I ask for a position change.

I'm looking for advice on who would you keep out of this group. Right now I'm looking at keeping guys with the best situation or upside, which leads me to keep Getzlaf, Karlsson (big fan), Vrana (need a LW), Sanheim (I'd argue he became PHI best D by end-of-season) along with two of the remaining D, then drafting for immediate LW/RW help in the 9-round supplemental draft.

Any suggestions on how to deal with my keeper selections? Thanks in advance, rep to be posted as soon as I can.

First Round Pick

[Skippy]

Fiala, Girard and Montour.

[Eskimo Brother]

Fiala, Girard and Montour.

I agree with those. Though ideally you find a way to upgrade LW over Vrana.

[stevegamer]

Fiala & Montour are the easy cuts.

I'd really like to move one of your depth centers for a better wing player, and be willing to take a slightly lesser caliber player back. If you have to give up Girard or Vrana in addition to get that done, I'd figure that essentially handles your last cut.

[lucafen4]

Cutting Fiala is going to be a mistake. I cut the ever disappointing Nyquist and keep Fiala.

Girard & Montour I agree with.

[4T2]

Nyqvist, Montour, Girard would be my cuts as well.

[First Round Pick]

Ok just so we are clear, I need to know who you guys would keep with the last three players. If I read above, it’s keeping Dunn and Provorov, then likely Fiala over Nyquist.

[4T2]

Ok just so we are clear, I need to know who you guys would keep with the last three players. If I read above, it’s keeping Dunn and Provorov, then likely Fiala over Nyquist.

That would be my advice

[RizzeeDizzee]

Don't keep Nyqvist - his 2018-19 was a mirage. Here's what I had to say about him back in March:

Just when poolies were about to erase the last shred of hope of new San Jose Shark Nyquist ever coming close to living up to the potential we witnessed in his breakout 48 points in 57 games 2013-14 campaign, lo and behold at age 29 he’s on track for 63 points, igniting hopes among many that he’s a late bloomer who could produce into his 30s. Still, others are skeptical, wondering if they should use this as a chance to sell high on Nyquist, and I’m here to tell you, that’s the group you want to be in.

At the outset, we can’t ignore that Nyquist is playing his best hockey in five years during what just so happens to be the last year of his contract. Or to put it another way, when a player’s collective full season scoring rate over the previous three seasons was a mere 45 points and then he suddenly shows up – at age 29 – and sees that increase by nearly 50%, it’s inherently suspect and warning bells should be going off for poolies who’ve been burned by this kind of pre-UFA turnaround in the past.

Beyond that, his data/metrics either aren’t consistent with his track record or just plain unsustainable on their face. Take IPP for example. After it was 73.4% in his breakout 2013-14 campaign, it went down with each successive season – yes, it dropped in each of the next four seasons! Yet this season it’s shot back up to 71.0%, just when he happens to be on the verge of a UFA payday?

Hmmm……

It’s a similar story with SOG, which, after being collectively at 2.25 over the previous four seasons, is suddenly up to 2.65. And although the 11 PPPts he amassed while still on Detroit doesn’t exactly jump off the page, consider that there were only 12 PPPts scored while he was on the ice, meaning not only was their PP not too successful with him on the ice, but he somehow found a way to factor into more than 90% of the possible PPPts he could’ve amassed!

Nyquist’s IPP hasn’t been the only thing dropping with each passing campaign, as so too did his offensive zone starting percentage. Yet unlike his IPP, his OZ% managed to fall even further this season while with Detroit, making his jump in points even more inherently suspect than it already was. There’s also his secondary to primary assists ratio, which, prior to this season, was weighted heavily in favour of primary assists, with 82 of them compared to only 47 secondaries. With Detroit before being traded this season, however, he tallied 15 secondary assists to only 18 primaries, for far more secondary assists than he’s normally used to receiving, further signifying his scoring rate would be unsustainable even if it wasn’t coinciding with a contract year.

Hopefully even the most fervent Nyquist believer can see he’s TOO HOT, which is why he receives a rating of 9.25. The expectation should be once he’s paid this summer he’ll immediately revert to, at best, his usual 45 point ways, disappointing the poolies who were too optimistically stubborn to seize upon this moment to unload him in trade for a value he’ll never again come close to commanding.

[stevegamer]

Ok just so we are clear, I need to know who you guys would keep with the last three players. If I read above, it’s keeping Dunn and Provorov, then likely Fiala over Nyquist.

Of your listed 6, I'd keep Dunn, Provorov, and Girard, and cut Fiala, Montour, and Nyquist.

[cheese_cake]

I would cut Nyquist without remorse, he only performs when he needs a new contract.
Montour is next, and my last cut would be Girard because Fiala will have all the opportunity in the world to perform.

[First Round Pick]

Thanks everyone, I’m trying to get someone to take Nyquist but it doesn’t appear to be working, same with my coupling with Vrana. Thanks for all the help, will send some rep your way!