RFA Signing Predictions

[SeaDawg]

What do you think these RFAs will sign for in terms of length and AAV?

Marner
Point
Connor
Meier
Boeser
Rantanen
Aho
Tkachuk
Laine
Werenski

[Eskimo Brother]

All except for Rantanen/Aho/Point/Marner will be between 5-8M. Aho I say 8.5, and the rest between 9-10.5.

As I said in the UFA thread, I'll hopefully have my predictions out soon in a big google doc.

[SeaDawg]

Here are my predictions:

Marner - 8 yr, 10.5 AAV
Point - 2 yr, 5 AAV
Connor - 2 yr, 4 AAV
Meier - 6 yr, 7 AAV
Boeser - 8 yr, 8 AAV
Rantanen - 8 yr, 9 AAV
Aho - 8 yr, 9 AAV
Tkachuk - 2 yr, 5 AAV
Laine - 2 yr, 4 AAV
Werenski - 8 yr, 7 AAV

[Auston'sWilly]

Marner's a really tough call. I can understand his agent wanting Matthews money, but Matthews plays in the middle and he's a sniper.

Marner - 8 yr, 9.75 AAV
Point - 5 yr, 7.75 AAV
Connor - 2 yr, 4 AAV
Meier - 7 yr, 7 AAV
Boeser - 8 yr, 8 AAV
Rantanen - 8 yr, 9.5AAV
Aho - 8 yr, 8 AAV
Tkachuk - 8 yr, 7.5 AAV
Laine - 2 yr, 5.75 AAV
Werenski - 8 yr, 7 AAV

[2014olympicgold]

$1 dollar bob

[SeaDawg]

I'm going to bump this thread to see if we can get some more discussion. As Clifford pointed out in today's Ramblings, the people over at Evolving Wild (never heard of them before today) released their predictions (listed below). What are your thoughts?

Marner - 8 yr, 9.7 AAV
Point - 5 yr, 8.2 AAV
Connor - 6 yr, 6.9 AAV
Meier - 6 yr, 5.8 AAV
Boeser - 7 yr, 7 AAV
Rantanen - 8 yr, 10.1 AAV
Aho - 8 yr, 10 AAV
Tkachuk - 6 yr, 7.9 AAV
Laine - 7 yr, 7.2 AAV
Werenski - 7 yr, 6.9 AAV


My thoughts about their predictions...

- I think some of these players will sign bridge deals, most notably Point, Connor, and Laine. Especially Laine, I feel. He had a down season and it would be in the best interest of the individual and the team to see how he rebounds next year.
- I don't think Point will sign a 5 year deal. I think it is a 2 or 3 year bridge, or an 8 year contract.
- Meier's contract seems a little low in terms of AAV.

[lucafen4]

I'm going to bump this thread to see if we can get some more discussion. As Clifford pointed out in today's Ramblings, the people over at Evolving Wild (never heard of them before today) released their predictions (listed below). What are your thoughts?

Marner - 8 yr, 9.7 AAV
Point - 5 yr, 8.2 AAV
Connor - 6 yr, 6.9 AAV
Meier - 6 yr, 5.8 AAV
Boeser - 7 yr, 7 AAV
Rantanen - 8 yr, 10.1 AAV
Aho - 8 yr, 10 AAV
Tkachuk - 6 yr, 7.9 AAV
Laine - 7 yr, 7.2 AAV
Werenski - 7 yr, 6.9 AAV


My thoughts about their predictions...

- I think some of these players will sign bridge deals, most notably Point, Connor, and Laine. Especially Laine, I feel. He had a down season and it would be in the best interest of the individual and the team to see how he rebounds next year.
- I don't think Point will sign a 5 year deal. I think it is a 2 or 3 year bridge, or an 8 year contract.
- Meier's contract seems a little low in terms of AAV.

Leafs fans jump for joy!!

[newfcollins]

I'm going to bump this thread to see if we can get some more discussion. As Clifford pointed out in today's Ramblings, the people over at Evolving Wild (never heard of them before today) released their predictions (listed below). What are your thoughts?

Something to keep in mind is that the projections were based on a model instead of guessing at each individual player. That's why Panarin is at eight years. Odds are he goes somewhere else, where we can sign seven years max. But based on past history, guys in his spot have stayed put, and that's where the eight-year number comes from.

It's also why you see Tyler Myers north of $6 million a season for seven years. Or Jake Gardiner at $7 million for 7 years. Or Eberle at $6 million for 7 years. These guys won't get these long-term deals for that much, but based on previous years, that's what the projections come out to.

[SeaDawg]

Something to keep in mind is that the projections were based on a model instead of guessing at each individual player. That's why Panarin is at eight years. Odds are he goes somewhere else, where we can sign seven years max. But based on past history, guys in his spot have stayed put, and that's where the eight-year number comes from.

It's also why you see Tyler Myers north of $6 million a season for seven years. Or Jake Gardiner at $7 million for 7 years. Or Eberle at $6 million for 7 years. These guys won't get these long-term deals for that much, but based on previous years, that's what the projections come out to.

Interesting, but doesn't really factor into the RFA projections I'm specifically interested in. I think for the most part the projections for the RFAs I listed are fairly accurate.

Also, FWIW, I think Panarin will sign an 8 year deal because he will be dealt to Florida before becoming a UFA (just a hunch).

Thanks for the clarification on the model they are using, though.

[Mr. Guru]

Interesting, but doesn't really factor into the RFA projections I'm specifically interested in. I think for the most part the projections for the RFAs I listed are fairly accurate.

Also, FWIW, I think Panarin will sign an 8 year deal because he will be dealt to Florida before becoming a UFA (just a hunch).

Thanks for the clarification on the model they are using, though.

Isn't there a rule that the player can only sign a 8 year deal if he was on that teams roster at the trade deadline?

[SeaDawg]

Isn't there a rule that the player can only sign a 8 year deal if he was on that teams roster at the trade deadline?

I don't know. That might very well be true. I read somewhere that is why Bobrovsky and Panarin would possibly agree to be dealt prior to becoming Free Agents. They could sign for the extra year. Otherwise they'd just wait until Free Agency to explore all their options. If what you are saying is true (and that makes perfect sense to me), then I'm not sure the rumors of Bob and Panarin signing prior to Free Agency are true. There'd be no benefit to them.

[lucafen4]

I don't know. That might very well be true. I read somewhere that is why Bobrovsky and Panarin would possibly agree to be dealt prior to becoming Free Agents. They could sign for the extra year. Otherwise they'd just wait until Free Agency to explore all their options. If what you are saying is true (and that makes perfect sense to me), then I'm not sure the rumors of Bob and Panarin signing prior to Free Agency are true. There'd be no benefit to them.

only way 8yrs would work would be a sign and trade from Columbus. Otherwise, it's 7 years. No one should be giving a 30yr old goalie 8yrs anyway

[SeaDawg]

only way 8yrs would work would be a sign and trade from Columbus. Otherwise, it's 7 years. No one should be giving a 30yr old goalie 8yrs anyway

I was going by memory, so the article I read may have been referring to Panarin and Bobrovsky agreeing to be dealt prior to the trade deadline, in order to sign 8 year deals. My bad.

[StuntMan12]

These are just guesses. I'm not saying I'm an expert on predicting salary or AAV (IN BEFORE I GET CRITIQUED ON TERM/MONEY) lol

Marner - 8 years x $13,000,000 per
Point - 8 years x $9,000,000 per
Connor - 7 years x $7,000,000 per
Meier - 5 years x $5,500,000 per
Boeser - 7 years x $6,000,000 per
Rantanen - 8 years x $9,500,000 per
Aho - 8 years x $9,000,000 per
Tkachuk - 5 years x $7,000,000 per
Laine - 8 years x $8,500,000 per
Werenski - 5 years x $6,500,000 per