Cap League: E. Karlsson or R. Josi and Pick Upgrades?

[havanablast21]

Just joined a rather huge 31 team cap league (cap and salaries mimic the NHL). This is the inaugural season so were starting from the ground up.
Pretty interesting way to start as we had a random draw to draft Teams (NHL) and can select any 3 players from said team. Then the Player draft follows in reverse order (snake).

I managed to get team 4 and after Colorado, Tampa and Toronto went 1, 2, 3 I figured I had to go for the players and selected Edmonton at 4 and with that McDavid ($12.5) and Draisatl ($8.5).
Instead of trying to justify taking a $6 million RNH or Defenders Nurse/Bouchard (who could clearly be had in the player draft), I managed to Trade my 3rd keeper for that of the Sharks.

Currently the Sharks have selected Burns and Kane.

So, this is essentially the 3rd round of a 31 team league. Immediately I'm thinking Karlsson (or Meier.. but again, I think Karlsson has more value and it's a free pick). The only problem is Karlsson's Impending Cap Hit.
I'm hoping the Cap goes up from $79 Million but still $10, $11, $12 million would rap up 40% of my Entire cap with 20 more players to draft.

Having said that, we don't have to be cap compliant until the start of the season.

So this brings me to an offer made to me yesterday.

For my 3rd Pick from the sharks (and 16th Round Pick in the Inaugural draft), I've been offered R.Josi as well as a 13th Round pick (in the inaugural draft ... so picks 403 - 432) As well as a 2nd junior pick in 2020 OR a 1st junior pick in 2021.

While I'm tempted (Josi and Karlsson have been pretty close in average Fan Pts per game based on this league's cats for the past few years) I also feel Karlsson has been a shadow of himself since the heel and foot injuries and taking a while to find his footing with the Sharks.

Once he lands in his next full time spot, I think he has the ability to be one of the, if not THE best player at his position. And he costs me nothing but Cap hit with this unusual kick off.

What say you?
Start the Player draft with McDavid, Draisatil and Karlsson and a potential cap hit of $31 - $32 Million (then figure out the rest of my team)
or
Start the player draft with MDavid, Draisatl and Josi plus a 3 round (near 93 player boost) in the middle of the inaugural draft and a future 2nd or 1st (who knows what those two picks could yield) but a $25 Million Cap Hit for atleast next year and fingers crossed Josi doesn't sign a rediculous extension negating the savings?

Thanks all.

[Eskimo Brother]

Personally I'm taking Josi at 40% of the price for a year, and then 80% of the price moving forward for the healthier defenceman that is probably at worst 80% of the production when they're both healthy.
I really would be wary of tying my hands too early in this draft, as McDavid and Drai are not on the cheap side.

Also of note is that I would take the 2021 first rounder instead of the 2020 second. That first rounder is just going to keep growing in value the longer you hold it.

[havanablast21]

Personally I'm taking Josi at 40% of the price for a year, and then 80% of the price moving forward for the healthier defenceman that is probably at worst 80% of the production when they're both healthy.
I really would be wary of tying my hands too early in this draft, as McDavid and Drai are not on the cheap side.

Also of note is that I would take the 2021 first rounder instead of the 2020 second. That first rounder is just going to keep growing in value the longer you hold it.

Thanks as always EB

[Eskimo Brother]

Thanks as always EB

Take into account I'm a little more biased than the average poster towards Josi.

Instead I'll look at it this way, if you had the same circumstance but instead of Josi it's John Carlson coming off his $4M cap hit like he was last summer, I think I still give you the same answer.

[ericdaoust]

Yeah that's solid advice, I agree with that approach.

[havanablast21]

Thanks Eric! Two big guns quickly sounding in. Much appreciated.

[havanablast21]

the words of wisdom make sense above.
Made the deal and in doing so, locked up Josi as well as a 3 round boost from 16.4 to 13.7 (essentially a 90 spot boost) and a 2021 1st round pick.

Makes a whole lot more sense to me now that I pulled the trigger. And that the guy getting the 3rd San Jose pick actually took Meier and not Karlsson who will be available in the draft).

Thanks again EB and ED

[stevegamer]

Late to the party, but I agree with everyone else.

[ericdaoust]

Late to the party, but I agree with everyone else.

The cool kids are always late to the party.

[Doug Glatt]

Poile will use the same Jedi mind shit on Josi and his agent that he does on everyone else and a deal with a team-friendly cap hit will be signed. You will save $4-5M in cap space by owning Josi. Plus PK sounds like he might be on the way out, so Josi could finally be eating the big dog's lunch and his stats could be very similar to EK. I think its a very shrewd move for you.

[havanablast21]

Thanks again guys! Appreciate the push in the right direction.

[PittsburghHustlers]

Nice draft setup, sounds like a lot of fun! As to your question, I agree with the rest. Good luck!