[Rumor] Marner is gone from TO

[Axeman33]

ok, to answer my own question from above, I just looked closely (but quickly) at the numbers on capfriendly...someone correct me if I am wrong with any of the following...

- if Toronto trades Marleau, Kadri, and Zaitsev, and does not re-sign Gardiner, they will have $21 million in cap space
- at that point, they'd need to sign 12 more players (Marner, Kapanen, and Johnsson included).

Assuming Marner gets $10 million AAV, then they'd have around 12 million to sign 11 players (9 F and 2 D).

I guess that is possible, but seems very difficult and hard to imagine they can get that done.

Where's Loophole Lou when ya need him

[fungchen3]

ok, to answer my own question from above, I just looked closely (but quickly) at the numbers on capfriendly...someone correct me if I am wrong with any of the following...

- if Toronto trades Marleau, Kadri, and Zaitsev, and does not re-sign Gardiner, they will have $21 million in cap space
- at that point, they'd need to sign 12 more players (Marner, Kapanen, and Johnsson included).

Assuming Marner gets $10 million AAV, then they'd have around 12 million to sign 11 players (9 F and 2 D).

I guess that is possible, but seems very difficult and hard to imagine they can get that done.

There is no chance Marner signs for 10mil. He will get Matthews type money IMO. 11mil at minimum, probably 11.5.

[2014olympicgold]

Personally I'd move Johnsson and Kapanen in some way to get the cap space to keep Marner. AKA if you need to attach them to Marleau and Zaits I'd do it. However, I understand how the Leafs would explore the whole market of Marner to see if it's worth moving him.

As of today, 3 teams don't have their 2020-2024 picks. Dallas, SJS and CBJ (conditional, Ottawa receives it if Duchene re-signs). So Those 3 can't offer sheet any of the larger names. Even though we weren't expecting them too.

[SeaDawg]

There is no chance Marner signs for 10mil. He will get Matthews type money IMO. 11mil at minimum, probably 11.5.

I agree...and that just makes the situation worse for Toronto.

NOTE: in my above post, I had the incorrect roster spots to fill.

- If they trade Marleau, Kadri, Zaitsev
- sign Marner for $11 million

They have 11 million to sign 8 or 9 players, depending on bench spots/healthy scratches, etc. (5/6 F and 2/3 D).

The roster would look like this:

Kapanen (unsigned) - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson (unsigned) - Tavares - Marner
XXX - Gauthier - Moore
XXX - Petan - XXX
XXX (extra)

Rielly - Muzzin
Dermott - Holl
XXX - XXX
XXX (extra)

Andersen
Sparks

[fungchen3]

I agree...and that just makes the situation worse for Toronto.

NOTE: in my above post, I had the incorrect roster spots to fill.

- If they trade Marleau, Kadri, Zaitsev
- sign Marner for $11 million

They have 11 million to sign 8 or 9 players, depending on bench spots/healthy scratches, etc. (5/6 F and 2/3 D).

The roster would look like this:

Kapanen (unsigned) - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson (unsigned) - Tavares - Marner
XXX - Gauthier - Moore
XXX - Petan - XXX
XXX (extra)

Rielly - Muzzin
Dermott - Holl
XXX - XXX
XXX (extra)

Andersen
Sparks

If the Leafs bend on Marner and sign him for 11 or 11.5 a pop, Kapanen is ripe for an offer sheet. A team can sheet him for 4.1 mil a year and only surrender a 2nd round pick if the Leafs can't match. It's almost impossible to sign Marner for 11-11+ and Kapanen for 4-4+.

Kapenen could end up being the kid who gets plucked, unless he and his agent are insanely loyal.

Either way, the Leafs are in a tough spot. Their D is going to be flimsy yet again.

[rataylor22]

I dunno how you can look at both the Matthews and Nylander contracts and not come to the conclusion that he easily lost both, bot ok lol.

[rataylor22]

I mean. Just about every analyst and non-Leafs fan said Dubas lost both when they were signed, but

[lucafen4]

I dunno how you can look at both the Matthews and Nylander contracts and not come to the conclusion that he easily lost both, bot ok lol.

the most obvious answer. Neither have played a day on either contract to create any valuation of whether they'll earn them or not yet. I think we need A sample size before jumping to a foregone conclusion

[Kofax]

I'm getting the impression this comes down to an offer sheet. You match anything at $10.5 and below, and if it's above, you take the 4 1st round picks and use them and the extra cap space to improve the team as best you can.

[2014olympicgold]

Borgman, Rosen, Lili, and Sandin are going to be fighting for 3 spots.

Also...
Leafs are at a 74.2mill cap, Cap will be 83mill (rumours are it's not even technically set yet, may be 82. In fact capfriendly is now showing 82) leaving them with 7.8mill going off 82mill.

Kadri+Marleau+Zaits = 15.25mill

Trade those 3, cap space is 23.05mill\

Sign Marner to 11. Cap space is 12.05mill to fill 4-5F and 4-5D. (9 total spots)

Assuming 3 D that are in next yr are Borgman (0.7), Rosen (0.750), and Sandin (0.894) you fill 2.344mill of your space for a total now of 9.706mill in space

6 spots to fill with 9.7mill. Your 4F are 3rd/4th line guys. Lets say avg of 2mill/player (8mill), you have 1.7mill to fill 2 spots.

But wait, 5.3mill is allocated to IR on Horton. LTIR him, now you have 7mill for 2spots.

Leafs have space. But they are HEAVILY banking on 3 rookie contracts on their defensive group. Or is my math off? Serious question though, maybe I'm understanding the Horton 5.3mill wrong.

[SeaDawg]

I mean. Just about every analyst and non-Leafs fan said Dubas lost both when they were signed, but

I'm not a Leafs fan, but I think the Matthews and Nylander contracts are horrible.

I'm sure an argument can be made that the contracts were "market value", but as I have said in numerous posts lately, the market is broken. I also think the Tavares contract is bad, and if Marner signs for $10+ million, that contract will be bad also. What is "bad" is a sliding scale...Marner at $10 million isn't as bad as Hayes at $7+, but it's still bad.

The NHL is in big trouble right now...Hayes, Skinner, Karlsson...all those contracts will handcuff their respective teams, eventually. If Laine gets anything close to $8 million (as rumored), that will be very horrible contract. The list just goes on and on right now.

Teams seem to be going the route of loading up with 5 or 6 high-end contracts and then plugging the holes with a bunch of minimum value contracts. That works only up to a certain point. As the roster turns over and your next big player comes off of his ELC, you simply won't be able to fit in another high-end contract without buying someone out, or trying to find a way to unload bad contracts, like Toronto is doing now with Marleau, Kadri, and Zaitsev. And if a player regresses (Perry, Benn) or doesn't progress as hoped (possibly Laine, Nylander), then you are doubly-screwed.

[SeaDawg]

...

Your math/calculations seem similar to mine...seems they will be in trouble and will certainly be relying heavily on a lot of rookie/depth players earning minimum value contracts to play some important roles for them.

[lucafen4]

I'm not a Leafs fan, but I think the Matthews and Nylander contracts are horrible.

I'm sure an argument can be made that the contracts were "market value", but as I have said in numerous posts lately, the market is broken. I also think the Tavares contract is bad, and if Marner signs for $10+ million, that contract will be bad also. What is "bad" is a sliding scale...Marner at $10 million isn't as bad as Hayes at $7+, but it's still bad.

The NHL is in big trouble right now...Hayes, Skinner, Karlsson...all those contracts will handcuff their respective teams, eventually. If Laine gets anything close to $8 million (as rumored), that will be very horrible contract. The list just goes on and on right now.

Teams seem to be going the route of loading up with 5 or 6 high-end contracts and then plugging the holes with a bunch of minimum value contracts. That works only up to a certain point. As the roster turns over and your next big player comes off of his ELC, you simply won't be able to fit in another high-end contract without buying someone out, or trying to find a way to unload bad contracts, like Toronto is doing now with Marleau, Kadri, and Zaitsev. And if a player regresses (Perry, Benn) or doesn't progress as hoped (possibly Laine, Nylander), then you are doubly-screwed.

you look at Boston and St. Louis.. one thing they have in common.... value contracts top to bottom. No massive outliers. Pitts didn't win again until Sid & Malkin contracts were no longer outliers.

[2014olympicgold]

Your math/calculations seem similar to mine...seems they will be in trouble and will certainly be relying heavily on a lot of rookie/depth players earning minimum value contracts to play some important roles for them.

Your math doesn't include the 5.3mill from Horton though.

[SeaDawg]

Your math doesn't include the 5.3mill from Horton though.

I don't know how long-term injured contracts work...I seem to recall that the cap hit counts in the off-season, but is removed after the season starts...so they have to sign all their players taking Horton's contract into consideration this off-season.

Maybe I'm wrong though...