I would be grabbing Meier.
Hey all,
Points only league, dress 6-3-1. My squad is just coming out of a 2-yr rebuild. Leftovers in this year's draft, alongside the new crop, are headlined by Timo Meier and Erik Gustaffson. My lottery pick is the third best - so, assuming I stick at 3rd overall and Hughes/Kakko go 1 & 2, how do you rank what's left plus these two? BPA all the way - if it takes a couple of years, that's ok, but the way I'm seeing it, it's hard not to go with one of these two. Thoughts? Is there someone in the draft you'd take over one of these? And, which of the two do you prefer?
Thanks!
20-Team Keeper League
PTS: G=1, A=1, W=2, SO=3
Starting roster: 6F, 3D, 1G, *Keep 12 + 2 on farm
F: Kucherov, Scheifele, Eichel, Tarasenko, Rakell, Schwartz, Dadonov
D: Doughty, Josi, Ekman-Larsson, Keith
G: Hellebuyck
Farm: Tolvanen, Kaprizov
16-Team Keeper League
PTS: G=1, A=1, W=2, SO=3
Starting roster: 6F, 4D, 1G, *Keep 12 + 4 on farm
F: P Kane, Kessel, Pastrnak, Keller, Marchessault, B Schenn, Fiala, Kase,
D: Weber, Karlsson, Pietrangelo, Parayko
G: Rask
Farm: Kravtsov, A Boqvist, Necas, I Samsonov
I would be grabbing Meier.
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20 teams 6F, 3D =
120F & 60D off the boards
120th forward this year was Perron/Zajac with 46pts.
60th defenceman this year was Pesce/Orlov with 29pts
If we give Meier 75
and Gus 55
for next year - I'm not comfortable predicting 0 or a repeat 60. (I'm hoping!)
Then replacement for Meier 75-46 = 29
Replacement for Gus 55 - 29 = 26
Which is really close. Add in a reasonable error rate of +/- 5pts and you really need to be filling the biggest hole, whether that's D or F
Meier would slot in as your 4th best forward behind Scheifele, Eichel & Kucherov
Gus would arguably be your best Dman with Josi.
Seeing as replacement values are relatively even I'd go with the Dman.
One could also argue I was too kind in giving Meier 75 for next season, as he could easily fight to reach 70.
not to mention, Gus was on a 75pt pace since Dec 1.
I have a love affair with both. But here, I think I lean Gus.
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Points only... I go Gustaffson here. I'm a huge Meier fan, but Gustaffson has the potential to be an elite scoring D. For the record, I take either of these guys over this years entry class if I've got a remotely competitive team.
Without me, it's only "aweso".
I see Gustafsson as a bigger upgrade for you, as Keith isn't really worth much anymore, and I am fairly certain he's your #2 or #3 D.
Meier I see in the mix as your #4-7 forward, so while he is younger, I think he helps you less.
Really no wrong decision here. I might lean towards trying to wrangle another first rounder off someone if one of them slides down a bit, and you can move a future first.
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