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Thread: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

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    everfeb's Avatar
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    Default IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    Hey Guys. Looking for some help, again.

    This is the 1st PlayOff Pool I've been in that allows "SWAPS", has goalies, is NON draft...so I'm not sure what my STRATEGY should be.
    Would love hearing your thoughts and opinions.

    Scoring is: Skaters G-1 A-1. Goalie Win-2 plus 1 for ShutOut.

    Rosters: 14 Forwards and 1 D-man (need to have 1 D-man on Roster throughout the PlayOffs)
    OR
    ..............13 Forwards, 1 D and one Team's Goalies (I like this, at 2 points per win + 1 for S.O the right goalies can be quite high scorers.)

    NOT ALLOWED to put Kucherov, Burns or the Tampa Goalies on our teams.

    CAN HAVE ONE of these guys...Ovy, Marchand, Syd, Tavares, Barzal, Wheeler, Stone, Gaudreau, O'Reilly, Forsberg.
    We can "SWAP" out our pick for another from this list if need be.

    What I'm thinking is...the West is a real cr*p shoot. So go with players from 4 teams in the East. Bolts, Bruins, Caps, Pens.
    I think these have to be the favourites.
    With this strategy...
    ..I think the ABSOLUTE ULTIMATE scenario is..1st round all 4 of these teams advance and don't have to use any "SWAPS". 2nd round 2 teams eliminated and have to use 6-8 "SWAPS" depending on where I sit in standings. 3rd round another 3-4 players eliminated leaving me with 1-5 “SWAPS” to add good players from the Western Finalists. IS THIS A GOOD STRATEGY???
    CAN YOU THINK OF A BETTER ONE? Open to all suggestions.
    Maybe don’t SWAP out all eliminated players early (depending on where in the standings I am) saving some SWAPS for later. Sheesh, I don’t know.

    Get 14 "SWAPS" for the PlayOffs....at anytime we can drop skaters or the goalies and add another positionally appropriate.

    Have an injury Replacement Rule...after he misses one game an injured player can be dropped and replaced with another positionally appropriate player from HIS team. Except the 1 forward picked from the above list of 10 can be subbed with another from
    that list. And Goalies will automatically be subbed in so goalies won't miss any games.

    TENTATIVE ROSTER...BOLTS: Point, Stamkos, 2 of Miller .63ppg, Gourde .60, TJ .59, Palat .52. Hedman didn't play today- concussion I think. BrUINS: Bergy, Pasta Kreci PENS: JakeG Malkinn Kessel CAPS: Kuz Backstrom Ovy Carlson Goalies

    Will REP everyone I can. If you actually read through all this and have a suggestion, really appreciate you taking the time for putting some thought into it. Thanks guys.
    Hope you all won your Regular Seasons and good luck with any PlayOff stuff you are doing.

    POOL RULES if showing in signature DO NOT apply to the above SC Pool.

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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    I actually really like that strategy based on your settings.

    One thought though, is that if someone like CLB or CAR gets an upset in round one, do you swap your 3-4 players from the upset team onto that team to continue the 100% portion of having guaranteed teams make it through the second round? I think you would have to. That means you're down 3 swaps, use up 7 at the end of the second round when two more teams get eliminated, and have four left for the end of the third to have a good majority of your players in the finals.

    I definitely like having the goalie. Seems like a good risk to take there based on the upside. Getting to the finals means a minimum of 24 points, probably more.

    As for the goalies, I think I would go PIT as I see that being the least likely upset in the first round in the East, and if a goalie gets upset them may only get you 2-4 points.
    TJ and Palat are my picks from the Lightning. Miller was hurt recently (he'll play through it but it knocks him down a peg).
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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    Hey EB
    Looks like you actually understood my post and strategy! THANK YOU very much for taking the time to make that thoughtful, insightful reply. Really appreciate it.
    Glad to see you like my strategy. Wasn't sure if it made sense.

    It is a PlayOff Pool though and disaster lurks for any strategy one might come up with. My hope is to get several players into the Finals.

    I'm definitely going with a goalie. On my TENTATIVE ROSTER...BOLTS: Point, Stamkos, 2 of Miller .63ppg, Gourde .60, TJ .59, Palat .52. Hedman didn't play today- concussion I think. BRUINS: Bergy, Pasta Kreci PENS: JakeG Malkin Kessel CAPS: Kuz Backstrom Ovy Carlson Goalies I've got 5 Caps and 3 Pens. So switching to Pens goalies from Caps makes sense in that I'd then have 4 of each somewhat reducing risk if Caps go out in 1st round. How about dropping Ovy, adding Crosby and keeping the Caps goalies? Still 4 each of Caps and Pens.

    You said "One thought though, is that if someone like CLB or CAR gets an upset in round one, do you swap your 3-4 players from the upset team onto that team to continue the 100% portion of having guaranteed teams make it through the second round? I think you would have to. That means you're down 3 swaps, use up 7 at the end of the second round when two more teams get eliminated, and have four left for the end of the third to have a good majority of your players in the finals."
    Yes, that would be the hope not to lose more than 3-4 players in the 1st round. If I lose 3 or 4 I think it will depend on where I am in the standings before deciding whether I have to replace all lost players or maybe none. If I'm in good shape I might be able to save a few SWAPS for later? I suspect though that I'll likely have to SWAP out all my 1st round eliminated players just to keep pace.

    It's going to be interesting, can't wait to see the Rosters of the 11 other teams and see if I can figure out what, if any, their strategy might be. At the start of the PlayOffs I suspect many of our pool teams will be quite similar, as it's a NON-Draft pool, but through elimination of PlayOff teams the Rosters of our Pool Teams should really start to vary.

    Thanks again for taking the time you did. Hope you see this one and get back to me again. Really like hearing your thoughts.
    And sorry again, I still can't rep you.
    SOME POOL RULES. Points only (G-1, A-1) NON-draft pool so many teams will have A LOT of the same players. 19F 4 D 2 Rook. 1/2 entry fee $ to year long pool..1/2 to H2H. H2H matches go for a week and are simple...my 25 man team vs his, most points for the week gets the $.
    Each year the Commish selects 25F and 12D high scorers and all teams are restricted from putting these players on roster.
    Each franchise gets 6 SWAPS/year Any player on roster can be swapped for any non-restricted F/D/R from ANY NHL team. INJURY RULE A hurt player can be replaced by another F/D from HIS NHL team and this is NOT considered a SWAP.

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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    I think balancing Pens/Caps makes a lot of sense. Up to you if you feel like the goalies or Crosby/Ovie makes more sense.

    I think you have to swap in new players for anyone eliminated early. You need the points, and the faster you swap them in, the more points you can get. My main musing is whether it makes more sense to go swap straight to the East team that beat them, or it it should be to start doubling down on the teams you already have, or a west team. To have your strategy work though, at most one team can get eliminated of your four in the first round, and then I think you have to swap to the team that beat them (so you still have players from every team) then continue as planned.
    If more than one team get eliminated, you may have to double down early, going to some of the other teams you already have players on. Because, if they don't get through the next couple of rounds, you have lost anyways because you need to use more swaps than you have to keep in it.

    If three of your team's are eliminated, I think your only chance is to immediately pick the team in the West that will meet your last team in the finals, and then load up your two, leaving you with about two extra swaps left. Only chance there.

    Hope that all makes sense.

    I disagree with one comment though. I think the rosters will look the most different at the start and only get more similar as things go on. Hazard of having teams eliminated and seeing who is streaking. So it will be very important to come out of the first round or two with a lead. Keep in mind, if you can take that lead, then make some tactical swaps to land guys on the teams chasing you, they will have a much tougher time catching you.
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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    Thanks again EB Wow, you now know this pool better than I do and I came up with most of the Rules for it LOL. Going to bookmark this page so I can easily refer to it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    I think balancing Pens/Caps makes a lot of sense. Up to you if you feel like the goalies or Crosby/Ovie makes more sense.
    I looked at both Ovy and Syd's Regular Season and PlayOff scoring records for the last 2 years PPG wise and SYD is the clear winner. So going to go with him and the Cap Goalies. Balances things out too.

    I think you have to swap in new players for anyone eliminated early. You need the points, and the faster you swap them in, the more points you can get. My main musing is whether it makes more sense to go swap straight to the East team that beat them, or it it should be to start doubling down on the teams you already have, or a west team. To have your strategy work though, at most one team can get eliminated of your four in the first round, and then I think you have to swap to the team that beat them (so you still have players from every team) then continue as planned.
    Well thought out. I agree I'll likely have SWAP new players in early to replace dead ones. Ya, SWAP from the team that beat them, doubling down on teams I have or go west. The team I didn't have that advances will still have their top scorers available. If I add players to teams I already have I'll be getting lower levels of scorers I think. And I don't want to do anything to do with the west until the Finals when I know for sure who is playing. So if the Leafs knock off the Bruins I will in all probability put some Leafs on my roster. Yes, the Strategy will be in tatters if 2 or more of my teams go out 1st round. On the other hand, many of the pool teams will likely also have the same players as me going out too.

    If more than one team get eliminated, you may have to double down early, going to some of the other teams you already have players on. Because, if they don't get through the next couple of rounds, you have lost anyways because you need to use more swaps than you have to keep in it.
    Excellent point.

    If three of your team's are eliminated, I think your only chance is to immediately pick the team in the West that will meet your last team in the finals, and then load up your two, leaving you with about two extra swaps left. Only chance there.
    Yes, hoping to have players from the East and West for the Finals if I I don't have to use all my SWAPS in the 1st 3 rounds just to stay alive.

    Hope that all makes sense.
    It does and you've given me a few ideas which I hadn't thought about.

    I disagree with one comment though. I think the rosters will look the most different at the start and only get more similar as things go on. Hazard of having teams eliminated and seeing who is streaking. So it will be very important to come out of the first round or two with a lead. Keep in mind, if you can take that lead, then make some tactical swaps to land guys on the teams chasing you, they will have a much tougher time catching you.
    You are probably right about the rosters looking most different at the start. HaHa, I'll be thrilled to get out of the 1st round losing only 3-4 players. I hear you on the tactical swaps taking players that other teams have. I call it neutering. You don't lose any ground by taking a good player that another team or 6 has.

    THANK YOU EB I'll update how things are going every now and then
    SOME POOL RULES. Points only (G-1, A-1) NON-draft pool so many teams will have A LOT of the same players. 19F 4 D 2 Rook. 1/2 entry fee $ to year long pool..1/2 to H2H. H2H matches go for a week and are simple...my 25 man team vs his, most points for the week gets the $.
    Each year the Commish selects 25F and 12D high scorers and all teams are restricted from putting these players on roster.
    Each franchise gets 6 SWAPS/year Any player on roster can be swapped for any non-restricted F/D/R from ANY NHL team. INJURY RULE A hurt player can be replaced by another F/D from HIS NHL team and this is NOT considered a SWAP.

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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    My Roster.
    Based on the "Experts" opinions posted today (Lightning to the Finals) and Caps as the team from the East most likely to be upset...
    (9 picked Caps, 7 picked Canes) I've adjusted my roster: to 5 from 4 Bolts-Stamkos, Point, Johnson, Gourde and Hedman as my D; 3 Bruins-Bergy,
    Pasta and Krejci; to 3 from 4 Caps-Kuzneznov, Backstrom and the Goalies; 4 Pens, Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Jake G.


    Best case Scenario Pens and Bolts make it to 3rd round I'll have to use just 6 "SWAPS" to get up to a full roster again for 3rd round leaving me 8 SWAPS (moves).
    In 3rd round, if Bolts take out Pens I have 5 bolts left plus 8 swaps = 13 in finals. If Pens win I have 4 Pens and 8 SWAPS = 12 in finals. Go Bolts...Go Pens.

    Not a great scenario but. Bolts and Pens eliminated in 2nd round leaving Bruins vs Caps in 3rd round. Have only 6 of them. So need to use 9 SWAPS (moves) to get up to roster limit (15) for 3rd round with 5 SWAPS left.
    Whether B's or Caps win going to have only 3 players left on roster plus 5 SWAPS = 8 players on roster for finals.

    Losing...one of 4 teams in 1st round would probably be manageable...more than 1 it'll be tough. But haven't seen any of the other team's rosters yet so don't know what they are up to.

    Thanks again for your help eb
    SOME POOL RULES. Points only (G-1, A-1) NON-draft pool so many teams will have A LOT of the same players. 19F 4 D 2 Rook. 1/2 entry fee $ to year long pool..1/2 to H2H. H2H matches go for a week and are simple...my 25 man team vs his, most points for the week gets the $.
    Each year the Commish selects 25F and 12D high scorers and all teams are restricted from putting these players on roster.
    Each franchise gets 6 SWAPS/year Any player on roster can be swapped for any non-restricted F/D/R from ANY NHL team. INJURY RULE A hurt player can be replaced by another F/D from HIS NHL team and this is NOT considered a SWAP.

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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    I like your strategy, don't have much to add as you guys have hashed it out, except for 2 things.

    I don't want the Capitals goalies. I'd prefer a team where you have less of a drop off in case of injury and one where they are defensively more stout to try for shutout bonus.

    I also am leery of Hedman being hurt already and having that limit him. So I prefer Carlson there.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: F Andersen
    Backup G: Holtby
    D: Hainsey, M Reilly, Carlson, Gustafsson, Klingberg, Letang,
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, MacKinnon
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, Guentzel
    F3: Benn, Seguin, Pavelski,
    F4: Point, Stamkos, Tavares

    Bench:
    G: Bobrovsky
    D: Gardiner, Gostisbehere, Schultz, Werenski
    F: Bailey, Johnsson, Killorn, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas, Tuch, Voracek

    Reserve: Datsyuk

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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I like your strategy, don't have much to add as you guys have hashed it out, except for 2 things.

    I don't want the Capitals goalies. I'd prefer a team where you have less of a drop off in case of injury and one where they are defensively more stout to try for shutout bonus.

    I also am leery of Hedman being hurt already and having that limit him. So I prefer Carlson there.
    Thanks stevegamer. Good Points. But had to enter my team long before you posted.

    The Goalies....Couldn't take Tampa ones. Just checked out the different pool team rosters, we ended up with 10 teams not 12 as originally posted. Of the 10, 4 of us have Caps so not going to lose any ground to them. 2 have Jets. Then 1 each of Pens, Preds, Vegas and Flames. My strategy was/is to go with players from the the 4 "favourites" in East. The goalie choices would thus be from Caps, Pens or Bruins. Bos vs Leafs then vs TBay...Don't see Boston getting many, any S.O. against them?
    Pens..I wanted their 4 gunners hopefully for at least 2 rounds but didn't want a 5th Pen on my roster. That pretty much left Caps goalies.
    To be honest, I didn't give shutouts much consideration. After your post did check goalie stats from last year's SC and there were only 4 S.O. in the East, 2 each by
    Caps and Pens. 14 S.O. for the entire SC by all teams, 4 by Fleury. In '17 there we 13 S.O. in SC. If repeated this year there really aren't a lot of S.O. points to be had so that makes me feel better. 2 for the win is big though. Here's to a healthy Holtby for 2, maybe 3 rounds.

    D-Man, ya, switched Hedman in for Carlson at the last minute after reading that Hedman took full practices Mon and Tues and is ready to go. Hopefully he stays healthy and plays well.
    Also did some research on them for this regular season and last year's SC. Carlson averaged .85 PPG x let's say 16 games = 14 points. Hedman .71 PPG x 16 = 11 points. If these stats play out I'd lose 3-4 points but as Bolts are overwhelming favourites to make it to the finals and if they do, I won't have to SWAP Hedman out through the PlayOffs and thus getting an extra SWAP for the Finals which could be big. That's the hope anyway.

    Even with 14 SWAPS (moves) and our Injury Replacement Rule it's STILL the PlayOffs, anything can happen...you know, "even the best laid plans of mice and men.." lol

    Thanks for taking the time to post. Good luck with your SC stuff. EDIT: Just tried to REP you. Sorry, couldn't.

    Sorry, Pool Rules in Signature don't apply to the above Pool.
    SOME POOL RULES. Points only (G-1, A-1) NON-draft pool so many teams will have A LOT of the same players. 19F 4 D 2 Rook. 1/2 entry fee $ to year long pool..1/2 to H2H. H2H matches go for a week and are simple...my 25 man team vs his, most points for the week gets the $.
    Each year the Commish selects 25F and 12D high scorers and all teams are restricted from putting these players on roster.
    Each franchise gets 6 SWAPS/year Any player on roster can be swapped for any non-restricted F/D/R from ANY NHL team. INJURY RULE A hurt player can be replaced by another F/D from HIS NHL team and this is NOT considered a SWAP.

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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    The best laid plans of mice and men

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    Default Re: IS this PlayOff Pool STRATEGY...OK, rational, dumb?

    Quote Originally Posted by davidgoodburn View Post
    The best laid plans of mice and men
    Yup lol. Looked like a good strategy on paper. Lost 9 of my 15 players in the 1st round so far, and if Bruins go down that'll be 12 SWAPS of 14 I'll have to use after
    the 1st round. Wasn't supposed to go this way. AND, I'm already in last place to boot!

    Have no idea what to do now. cr*p.

    Sorry, my sig below doesn't apply to this pool.
    SOME POOL RULES. Points only (G-1, A-1) NON-draft pool so many teams will have A LOT of the same players. 19F 4 D 2 Rook. 1/2 entry fee $ to year long pool..1/2 to H2H. H2H matches go for a week and are simple...my 25 man team vs his, most points for the week gets the $.
    Each year the Commish selects 25F and 12D high scorers and all teams are restricted from putting these players on roster.
    Each franchise gets 6 SWAPS/year Any player on roster can be swapped for any non-restricted F/D/R from ANY NHL team. INJURY RULE A hurt player can be replaced by another F/D from HIS NHL team and this is NOT considered a SWAP.

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