2019 Draft Class, 4th pick

[Doug Glatt]

I thought this would be an interesting topic since the draft has solidified with 3 guys at the top and then a group in the next tier.

Particularly interesting to me since I just acquired the 4th pick in our prospect draft for rookies.

In a multicat setup, which player, regardless of position, do you take after Hughes, Kakko and Podkolzin are off the board?

[Eskimo Brother]

I'm not even convinced Pod is the third one off the board. Cozens is making a case, and other guys like Byram and Turcotte can't be counted out. Some are also very high on Dach and Krebs, and the conversation doesn't end there. It's a lot of personal preference at this point.

Do you draft before or after the NHL draft?

[Doug Glatt]

After.
Hughes, Kakko will go 1-2 in 99% of drafts, or close to it.. The guy who owns the 3rd pick told me he is taking Podkolzin. So I have certainty in regards to the order above me.

[Eskimo Brother]

Things can change for your friend at #3, but I'm getting off topic.

If it's me at number four, I'm probably taking Cozens. He seems to have the upside, size, and name value that works excellently as a trade chip in fantasy leagues. Either he pans out, or you sell him on those attributes and recoup the same value anyways. Or just wait and see who goes 3rd overall in the NHL draft and take him. I have a feeling it won't be Pod.

[lucafen4]

I can see Byram going 3 or 4 in the NHL draft...

In fantasy drafts Podkolzin will slip in some due to the 2yr wait. But I expect him to be the averaged 3rd off the board.
Byram should slip to the 5-8 range in fantasy drafts.
I don't hear people talking about him in the same breathe as Hughes or Boqvist for offensive Dman.

Depending on league, GM's preference to go homer, or just belief one is better than the next... I think we'll see a complete smorgasbord of selection #4-8.

Cozens & Dach I can see going 4/5 frequently, but if that's the case, whoever's drafting 6,7,8 would have Turcotte, bolby Zegras, Krebs sitting in their lap.

In one pool, I have #1, #5, #9 & #10 picks. I might use the later 3 picks in some combination to move up to #2.
If that doesn't work. I might take whoever the Canucks draft at #5 just due to my pool being filled with Canucks fans and being able to get an over payment in a deal. Unless whoever that is goes at #3 or #4

If I had #4 and I'm not pissing off 1/2 my pool.. I'd probably lean towards one of the US kids.

I really like Zegras & Turcotte and perhaps would snipe one of them over Cozens & company

[Doug Glatt]

Things can change for your friend at #3, but I'm getting off topic.

If it's me at number four, I'm probably taking Cozens. He seems to have the upside, size, and name value that works excellently as a trade chip in fantasy leagues. Either he pans out, or you sell him on those attributes and recoup the same value anyways. Or just wait and see who goes 3rd overall in the NHL draft and take him. I have a feeling it won't be Pod.

He refused to trade me the 3rd pick on the grounds that Podkolzin is a great player just like the guys at the top of draft. I didnt get the pick but he gave me plenty of useful information during the talks (which is always a nice ancillary benefit of sending lots of offers). So I feel very certain that regardless of what happens in the NHL draft he is going Podkolzin.

[Dennis]

I have Cozens tenatively behind Highes/Kakko/Pods but Turcotte impresses me the more I take a look. Looks like a great all-around player and coach's dream, I'd guess he's a one-and-done at the NCAA level assuming he continues to progress. I'll put more research into it when I know if I draft 1st, 2nd, or 4th.

[Pengwin7]

For multi-cat... (and from what I've read this year)... I'm taking Cozens over Dach.
I believe Cozens is a better skater and more likely to shoot more. (SOG being part of pretty much every multi-cat league)
Dach, from what I read, is more cerebral - possibly like Joe Thornton - who, as we know - puts up points, but doesn't do much else in fantasy multi-cat.

All D-men coming out of juniors are huge wildcards in how they'll play in multi-cat.
Take a guy like Darnell Nurse.
He was drafted in 2013 (7th overall) and many are just seeing the stats they expected out of him in his +6 season.
(FWIW, Nurse may break-out big-time next year... but it's reason as to "How long do you want to wait?" on a multi-cat D).

If the league counts FOW - I'm probably considering Cozens at #3, and definitely taking him at #4. (safer pick, but limited upside)
Cozens at about 49% FOW this year in WHL... Dach is at about 41%.
From clicking links, one can also see that Cozens has 17ppg in his WHL career... Dach only 7ppg.... though Dach does rake a TON of PPA - so value is based on whether leagues count PPP, PPG, and/or PPA.
FOW% does translate a bit to the NHL... and I've rarely seen somebody poor at junior faceoffs just miracurously turn it around at NHL level.
We can overlook shitty FOW% if you are... well, Connor McDavid... but for other Cs... you want the FOW to be there - if league counts it. [*btw, props to Connor - up to 47% this year on the draw!!!]

If the league doesn't count FOW - I'm probably going Podkolzin at #3. (great upside, with some small risk)
Cozens does come in at #4, for me, in most multi-cat formats. That's where I have my list pegged in my keeper league WITH FOW, where I own 4 out of top 6 picks this year.
If the owner is doing a LONG rebuild... then Byram is in the mix... but I still feel like its too much risk for FANTASY leagues.

As for D, I also give one more example.
In one of my keepers, we had a fantasy prospect draft in 2014.
Aaron Ekblad was slated to be the #1 pick in the NHL draft.
But in this league, he fell all the way to the #8 pick... where I gladly took him on my turn.

For FANTASY hockey, Ekblad has been incredibly underwhelming - especially in multi-cat.
It's just very hard to get expected value out of D prospects... which makes Byram... to risky at #3 or #4 or #5... IMO.

Looking back... I sort of wish I hadn't drafted Ekblad. Sooooo disappointing. (especially in salary leagues)

[Doug Glatt]

Great input guys. Really appreciate the well thought-out responses.

I really never take D with my first round pick. They generally take too long to simmer, so I usually swoop down and snag the guys I like in trades before they blow up.
Last year was the exception, I identified Dahlin as without a doubt a stud who would be producing off the first puck drop. I was also smart in that I had traded for a guy's first rounder the year before, knowing his team was going to stink. It turned up No. 1. I got Heiskanen somehow in the 3rd round the year before which was highwayman-style draft robbery. Otherwise I am not going D with a Round 1 pick that is early.

P7, I think a lot of people were burned by Ekblad. He looked like he was going to be an offensive stallion his rookie year but has gone to sleep since. Yandle's arrival put the kibosh on Ekblad. And now Matheson is producing a little here too.

[Doug Glatt]

We need to see the NHL Entry Draft to know more, but which players aside from Hughes and Kakko are likely to make the jump and play in the NHL right away?

[lucafen4]

We need to see the NHL Entry Draft to know more, but which players aside from Hughes and Kakko are likely to make the jump and play in the NHL right away?

it's true... because where players land will really dictate this. I think Bowen Byram is a good example. If he lands in Detroit or Chicago it's unlikely he plays at all 1st year. If he went to NJ, Van I think his chances of playing immediately rise exponentially.

I would scratch any US player not named Hughes from likely playing as they'll most likely all spend at least one year in the NCAA.

[Shift Disturber]

I'd probably go with Cozens as well, as I can't at this point rank the Americans. I'm likely to end up with #3 and #5, so my logic goes like this: I see Podkolzin as a slight cut above the next six or so forwards who are so close that it doesn't matter if you pick #4 or #9. So, I'd go for Podkolzin at #3 then take whomever I'm in love with at #5. I'm pretty sure that if I take someone else at #3 that Podkolzin will not be there at #5. I assume that Byram will not go until at least #10 or so in our league as there is such a logjam of forwards in the top 10. of course, I could completely change my mind come draft day...

[Doug Glatt]

Thought I would revisit this now that the draft lottery is over and there has been some movement on some of the scouting lists.

Turcotte seems to be making a big move here the past month. I am taking a much closer look at him now. I keep reading he is the best 2-way player in the class from scouts but I dont see a great faceoff guy in him. I dont want a winger at this spot, and at his size that looks very possible. Anyone have a strong and well-researched opinion on him?

[Lindros88]

So I have the 3rd pick in my draft and have been doing a bunch of early research trying to figure out who has the most fantasy upside as opposed to just best player/where they'll be picked.

My thoughts for the actual draft would go something like this (for the 3-6 range)

3rd ov Chicago - Bowen Byram (D)
Chicago should be looking to shore up the next 2 big dmen to replace Keith and Seabrook and Byram/Boqvist would be that solid future pairing

4th ov Colorado - Kirby Dach (C)
Perfect 2C behind MacKinnon in the future. Seems like he'd fit the team well

5th ov Los Angeles - Dylan Cozens (C)
Just like Colorado, they can use high offensive talent and Cozens would fit nicely behind Kopitar.

6th ov Detroit - Vasili Podkolzin (RW)
Highly talented, Yzerman hasn't shied away from picking Russians during his time in Tampa. With a long history of Russians working in Detroit, I can see Detroit and Yzerman making Podkolzin their pick.

These could easily change and Turcotte could end up in the 3-6 range. I also like Zegras a ton in that area (but I may be higher on him than most).

Fantasy wise, if that happens, after Hughes/Kakko and Podkolzin who you said was going 3rd (and who I would take 3rd as of now more than likely) I'd probably go Cozens. As a King, his trajectory should be much quicker as he is much needed sooner.

As for my personal rankings this far fantasy wise, I'd go:

1.Hughes
2.Kakko
3.Podkolzin
4.Zegras
5.Cozens
6.Dach
7 Turcotte
8.Caufield
9.Kaliev
10.Krebs
11.Boldy
12.Lavoie

[Doug Glatt]

I like your list. Would have a different 4-7 but otherwise I am right there.
4. Turcotte
5. Cozens
6. Zegras
7. Dach

4-6 are interchangeable in my book, cant go wrong with any of them. Byram could go anywhere from 3 to 7, IMO. He and Podkolzin are the wildcards of the top 5. Caufield and Kaliev are the wildcards of the top 12. Turcotte is going NCAA which might lead me to draft Cozens. If CHI takes Turcotte 3rd that is a very nice spot to land. I think the C the Avs pick at 4 will walk right into the 2C job and should be a great producer as a rookie. The Kings' pick at 5 is also likely to be good.