Next year keepers

[pumpkinxyz]

Simple. Who do you think are my keepers for next year?

Points only Salary cap league using nhl aav.
Keep 11 : 1 goalie, 3D, 6F and choice of 1D or 1F (next year keep 12 : 7F, 4D, 1G)
I will have one of the first 3 picks next draft
My league seems to avoid very high $$$ contracts

Crosby $8,7 (6 years left)
Pastrnak $6,666,666 (4)
Huberdeau $5,9 (4)
Stone $9,5 (8)
Barzal $1,263,333 (1)
D Strome $3,338,333 (1)
Kuznetsov $7,800,000 (6)
Labanc (RFA)
Hall $6 (1)
Borgstrom $1,491,666 (1)
Mittelstadt $1,491,666 (1)
Kapanen (RFA)
Buchnevich (RFA)
Eichel $10 (7)
Batherson $773,333 (2)

Josi $4 (1)
Morrissey $3,150,000 (1)
Gustafsson $1,200,000 (1)
Letang $7,250,000 (3)
Hedman $7,875,000 (6)
Djoos (RFA)
Q Hughes $1,604,166 (2)
Schmidt $5,950,000 (6)

Holtby $6,1 (1)
Jones $5,75 (5)
Hutton $2,75 (2)

Thanks!

[Eskimo Brother]

Crosby $8,7 (6 years left)
Pastrnak $6,666,666 (4)
Huberdeau $5,9 (4)
Barzal $1,263,333 (1)
D Strome $3,338,333 (1)
Hall $6 (1)

Josi $4 (1)
Gustafsson $1,200,000 (1)
Q Hughes $1,604,166 (2)

Holtby $6,1 (1)

These would be my picks. Doesn't give you a huge amount of surefire keepers for next year since a lot of them are due raises, but gives you an excellent chance to win next year, and if you have the top three picks in the draft, you can re-stock a little that way anyways.

[Eskimo Brother]

Morrissey is tempting as your UTIL pick. If you think you can fit the cap, go Eichel, but with only 7 teams and matching the NHL cap, everyone you own needs to be a bargain.

[pumpkinxyz]

Morrissey is tempting as your UTIL pick. If you think you can fit the cap, go Eichel, but with only 7 teams and matching the NHL cap, everyone you own needs to be a bargain.

Wow you have everyone I was thinking of keeping. Morrissey was in fact who I had penciled in as my 4th D keeper. Eichel I am sure I can redraft even in middle rounds.

Hall is the only forward I'm not 100% sure because of injury history but I guess his upside at $6M is too high to let go.

If I get 1st overall pick would you get J. Hughes as a retool for next few years?

There's also a pooler that has shown interest in Mittlestadt against a draft pick. What would be reasonable? Would you instead try to redraft him? Nothing very convincing this year but if ever Buffalo change coaches his upside might be more interesting and probable!?

[Eskimo Brother]

I would be ecstatic to get a middle round pick for Mittlestadt. He's not going to break out next year, don't worry.

As for Hall, yes, he's too good to pass up on that upside vs cost.

For first overall, unless someone on a beautiful contract is let go (highly unlikely), I'm taking Hughes, Kakko, and another F with your first three picks.

[pumpkinxyz]

I would be ecstatic to get a middle round pick for Mittlestadt. He's not going to break out next year, don't worry.

As for Hall, yes, he's too good to pass up on that upside vs cost.

For first overall, unless someone on a beautiful contract is let go (highly unlikely), I'm taking Hughes, Kakko, and another F with your first three picks.

Thanks.

I think I might be able to get about a 6th rounder for Mittlestadt. Pooler who wants him is last, rebuilding and filled with extra picks.

Our Lottery is next week so I'll know then what position I'll be picking next fall. I'll go for Hughes and/or Kakko.

[Eskimo Brother]

Our Lottery is next week so I'll know then what position I'll be picking next fall. I'll go for Hughes and/or Kakko.

My bad, I misread your post and thought it said you would have all of the first three picks of the draft.

[red36]

I know you want to be wise with salaries here but personally, I’d be trying to stay as competitive as possible and then draft some salary efficient guys in the first few picks

Crosby $8,7 (6 years left)
Pastrnak $6,666,666 (4)
Huberdeau $5,9 (4)
Barzal $1,263,333 (1)
D Strome $3,338,333 (1)
Kuznetsov $7,800,000 (6)
Hall $6 (1)
Eichel $10 (7)

Josi $4 (1)
Letang $7,250,000 (3)
Hedman $7,875,000 (6)

Holtby $6,1 (1)

That is one too many forwards. I would try and trade one and keep the remaining 7. I would not let Eichel go back to the draft. If I couldnt manage to trade anyone, Strome would be my drop. You look primed to compete and if you let too much talent go itll hurt you.

[Eskimo Brother]

I know you want to be wise with salaries here but personally, I’d be trying to stay as competitive as possible and then draft some salary efficient guys in the first few picks

Crosby $8,7 (6 years left)
Pastrnak $6,666,666 (4)
Huberdeau $5,9 (4)
Barzal $1,263,333 (1)
D Strome $3,338,333 (1)
Kuznetsov $7,800,000 (6)
Hall $6 (1)
Eichel $10 (7)

Josi $4 (1)
Letang $7,250,000 (3)
Hedman $7,875,000 (6)

Holtby $6,1 (1)

That is one too many forwards. I would try and trade one and keep the remaining 7. I would not let Eichel go back to the draft. If I couldnt manage to trade anyone, Strome would be my drop. You look primed to compete and if you let too much talent go itll hurt you.

I agree with the sentiment, but in a 7 team league with a cap of 79.5M, the high salaried options in the draft are going to be endless. I would bet there will be guys like Malkin, Karlsson, Burns, Carlson, Price, Bobrovsky, etc. who will all not be kept. In a 7 team league you can't have one guy taking up one-eighth of your salary. The key to this league is having everyone on a bargain contract. That means a whole lot of PPG guys on 6M deals. Crosby I don't mind at his cap, but 40-50 points from Hedman for 8M, that's a negative. 70 points from Kuz for 8M? 80 points in 70 games from Eichel for 10M? None of it ends up adding up to the best team you can field. Guys like Barkov, Hubs, Hall, Panarin, RNH, Forsberg, Kuch, MacKinnon, Scheifele, Wheeler, etc. Those are the core guys that win you these leagues.

The whole league knows it too. That's why in the first post it is mentioned that high salaried guys have a much lower value.

[Eskimo Brother]

Following up on that, if you actually did the math, your recommended keepers have a cap hit of ~71.5M. So assuming the cap goes up to 83M as expected, he has to fill out the remaining 9 roster spots with less that 12M. That is less than 1.5M per player. Going into a draft like that is going to absolutely hamstring him.

[red36]

I agree with the sentiment, but in a 7 team league with a cap of 79.5M, the high salaried options in the draft are going to be endless. I would bet there will be guys like Malkin, Karlsson, Burns, Carlson, Price, Bobrovsky, etc. who will all not be kept. In a 7 team league you can't have one guy taking up one-eighth of your salary. The key to this league is having everyone on a bargain contract. That means a whole lot of PPG guys on 6M deals. Crosby I don't mind at his cap, but 40-50 points from Hedman for 8M, that's a negative. 70 points from Kuz for 8M? 80 points in 70 games from Eichel for 10M? None of it ends up adding up to the best team you can field. Guys like Barkov, Hubs, Hall, Panarin, RNH, Forsberg, Kuch, MacKinnon, Scheifele, Wheeler, etc. Those are the core guys that win you these leagues.

The whole league knows it too. That's why in the first post it is mentioned that high salaried guys have a much lower value.

I definitely missed the 79Mil but your aggressiveness is really not needed. Considering you are suggesting he goes into full out rebuild, it really shouldn't be so surprising to you that someone else suggests he REASONABLY tries to stay competitive.

You're right that it is the $5-8 million dollar guys who win you pools like this. But if you drop all your talent, you can't trade for those guys. You're handicapping him into a five year rebuild when his roster is not that bad. Gustafsson, Hughes, Strome, and Morrissey are physically impossible to move as the cornerstone pieces in deals for those studs you mentioned above like Kuch, MacK, Scheifele, Hall, etc. Eichel and Hedman however can be. If you keep these high salary guys, work hard to move them for players with better contracts, you will do dramatically better than you will by keeping riskier players with dramatically less upside. Even Kuznetsov holds a dramatically better chance at getting you an impact player in trade then the players listed above. If you drop all your talent, you will have a harder road to the top. You just finished working your ass off to get these pieces, don't throw them away for literally nothing.

Hedman - undeniable top 3 D in fantasy. If you drop him, he will go first round. Hedman is not a 50pt Dman. Hedman is a 60-75pt Dman due to his surroundings. Do not sell low on him or you will be forced to pay dramatically more to replace him when your ready to compete.
Eichel - Eichel was the 13th highest scoring C in the NHL. He is widely valued above his current production. He is a cornerstone piece that is required in a trade for a top end talent. Will hands down go in the first round.

It makes no sense to drop a guy like Eichel or Hedman, who will be redrafted in the 1st round, to keep Morrissey, who would be redrafted in the 4-8th round. It is also not good pick management to keep a player you can redraft in the late rounds so you can redraft Eichel with your 1st pick. If you approach the Morrissey owner after the draft, you likely will be able to get Morrissey, Hughes, and a pick for your Hedman (you may require taking cap on to get this done, but in the end you will be further ahead)

You have also predicted that Burns, Karlsson, and Carlson will be dropped. A 70pt D has more value than a 90pt C. These players, at a caphit of 8 million, are some of the most valuable pieces in the league. If they are widely getting dropped to the draft, I would suggest you go trade for some. Josi, Gustafsson, and Hughes will never touch their production. Josi will however come very close to touching their caphits though.

Crosby $8,7 (6 years left)
Pastrnak $6,666,666 (4)
Huberdeau $5,9 (4)
Barzal $1,263,333 (1)
D Strome $3,338,333 (1)
Hall $6 (1)
Eichel $10 (7)

Josi $4 (1)
Gustafsson $1,200,000 (1) or Hughes - whichever you prefer. Matters how strongly you feel about Gustafsson repeating.
Hedman $7,875,000 (6)

Holtby $6,1 (1)

Total of 61Million of roughly 83M. Gives you 22 million for 9 players or 2.4 million per replacement. Look into moving Crosby + Eichel + Hall for players on cheaper cap hits. Hall because he will skyrocket next year in $$$ and this is your last chance to get full value for him. I strongly urge you not to drop Hedman or Eichel into the draft if you think you want to rebuild. Keep them and trade them for players of higher value than who you'd keep over them.

[Eskimo Brother]

I do admit I got a little more worked up than necessary, especially considering you missed the 79.5M cap hit part. Without that, I agree with your answer, but with it, it changes. All good

I could be convinced that Eichel is worth keeping, but I'm still not budging on dropping Hedman. An 8M defenceman is just an impossible guy to keep and win with. If you keep Hughes over Hedman, and Hughes hits 20pts next season (conservative guess in my view), then you only need 40 more points with the 6+M that you save to make the swap worthwhile. Having an extra 6M to upgrade a forward core can definitely make more than a 40 point difference.

We can agree to disagree on Hedman though. So my final recommendation would be:
Crosby
Hubs
Pasta
Barzal
Strome
Hall
Eichel

Josi
Hughes
Gustavsson

Holtby

[pumpkinxyz]

Thanks for the input. The thing is I find that it's all about knowing the poolers in the league you play in. In this case most of these have been good friends of mine for many years and we've been doing pools for at least 10 years. This one, after a few different formats, is the one we are sticking with for the long haul with tweaks when necessary. We are finishing up our 3rd season with me getting a win in year one, competing heavily in year 2 but finishing 3rd and this season I was out of it pretty early. I do appreciate getting people's opinions on these boards cause sometimes someone will bring up a good point I hadn't thought of. Then I analyse how that applies to my pool.

That being said the players Eskimo Brother listed are spot on what I was thinking of keeping. I get what you are saying Red36, but I also disagree that this is a rebuild. On the contrary when you are able to get the production of guys like Barzal and Gustafsson on those low $ contracts that is a big step in the right direction (those are rare). I'm pretty sure I'll have one of the best protection lists for next year. This season someone tried having McDavid at 12,5M in his lineup only to drop him and a low salary to get mid level $ contracts... much easier to deal with injuries that way as well. I grabbed Tavares early on after his hot start and it was probably my worst move of the season. No one even owned Carlson at 8M all season long. I drafted Hedman 2nd round last season and got Letang on the free agent market when Hed got injured.

I have the opportunity to draft in the top 3 this season, so if I can grab Hughes or Kakko it will help me retool a bit with all my expiring contracts. I also have two 3rd and 4th rounders. Guys like Hedman, Carlson, Letang etc. will be available to me after the first round for sure... probably even round 3 or 4. Of course I will adapt my drafting strategy depending on who comes off the board when. So lets say Hedman gets drafted in the 1st round, then I can adapt and get Carlson in the 2nd. Having the D I am protecting at low salaries opens up way more options for the rest of my D.

The Eichel instead of Morrissey as my last keeper is very tempting (I protected him last season) BUT I'm betting (hoping) that I can redraft him as far as the 4th-5th round. I do have lots of time to change my mind on this one.

Again thanks for your 2 cents. Open to hearing other opinions.

[pumpkinxyz]

Hedman - undeniable top 3 D in fantasy. If you drop him, he will go first round. Hedman is not a 50pt Dman. Hedman is a 60-75pt Dman due to his surroundings. Do not sell low on him or you will be forced to pay dramatically more to replace him when your ready to compete.
Eichel - Eichel was the 13th highest scoring C in the NHL. He is widely valued above his current production. He is a cornerstone piece that is required in a trade for a top end talent. Will hands down go in the first round.

It makes no sense to drop a guy like Eichel or Hedman, who will be redrafted in the 1st round, to keep Morrissey, who would be redrafted in the 4-8th round. It is also not good pick management to keep a player you can redraft in the late rounds so you can redraft Eichel with your 1st pick. If you approach the Morrissey owner after the draft, you likely will be able to get Morrissey, Hughes, and a pick for your Hedman (you may require taking cap on to get this done, but in the end you will be further ahead)

You have also predicted that Burns, Karlsson, and Carlson will be dropped. A 70pt D has more value than a 90pt C. These players, at a caphit of 8 million, are some of the most valuable pieces in the league. If they are widely getting dropped to the draft, I would suggest you go trade for some. Josi, Gustafsson, and Hughes will never touch their production. Josi will however come very close to touching their caphits though.

Just as a followup to give you an idea about my league...

I've been approaching poolers for a possible Hedman trade and no one is biting. Don't really want to trade him but trying to see the interest, therefore giving some indication of where he might be drafted. Last season when I protected Eichel people were questioning my decision (because of salary). I might be able to move Kuznetsov for a pick but even that isn't for sure.

This year's winner had Burns $8 and Karlsson $6,5 on D, but his highest F salary was Panarin at 6M. He was able to win because of awesome low salary options like Point, Debrincat, Guentzel and he aquired Kucherov from the last place finisher. Names like McDavid, Ovechkin, Kessel, Malkin, Tavares etc. will all be available at the next draft.

This is where me keeping Morrissey as a 4th D instead of Eichel as a 7th F comes into play. Morrissey I agree is probably the odd man out but I do think he has the potential to put up 50 pts next season... not many Ds at his salary can accomplish that. My logic is that having so little salary used in protecting my 4 Defencemen it gives me a lot of room to add a guy like Hedman or Carlson which I'll be able to get in the 2nd or 3rd round.

As I said alot of it is just knowing my league.

[Pengwin7]

The general rule I live by in a lot of cap leagues is this:

10pts per $1m of salary.
Crosby can do 90pts+... so his $8.7m salary is fine.
Hubs does 70pts+... so his $5.9m is good.

Defensemen usually have real-world salaries for their... wait for it... defense!!!
So that doesn't often translate in fantasy hockey.

For those reasons, Josi, Hughes, and Gustafsson are right picks... just to clear cap space.

It's speculative whether Jack Eichel can do 100pts per season.
If/when he does... it won't be MUCH more than 100pts - so I think you pass on him.

Patrnak, Hall, Barzal, and D.Strome are my forward #3-#6.
The 7th is your call... but I'll take two years of Drake Batherson... as it clears cap space and he could do 35-40pts next year.