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Thread: Tampa Bay looking to break the single-season wins record

  1. #46
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay looking to break the single-season wins record

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    But then underdogs in R3 and R4. Unless you are getting 20/1 or higher you really aren't gaining an advantage betting it now vs. betting series to series.
    I understand what you're saying. But I don't think the numbers will add up to higher than what they are now....nevermind 20/1. Pitt/Wash would be a series underdog to TB for sure. But would they be vs a West team???

    And then Winnipeg/Nashville......IF they were to play Tampa in the Cup....

    Round 1: Favored
    Round 2: As close to EVEN as you can get
    Round 3: Small favorite or small underdog
    Round 4 vs Tampa: Given the above they'd have to be 10/1 to come close to the 14 or 15/1 they are now.

  2. #47
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay looking to break the single-season wins record

    Quote Originally Posted by hockeyrobot View Post
    I understand what you're saying. But I don't think the numbers will add up to higher than what they are now....nevermind 20/1. Pitt/Wash would be a series underdog to TB for sure. But would they be vs a West team???

    And then Winnipeg/Nashville......IF they were to play Tampa in the Cup....

    Round 1: Favored
    Round 2: As close to EVEN as you can get
    Round 3: Small favorite or small underdog
    Round 4 vs Tampa: Given the above they'd have to be 10/1 to come close to the 14 or 15/1 they are now.
    That's not how that would work if you're rolling over your bets.

    Let's say they are -135 favourites in R1. You bet $10 and they win so you get your $10 back plus $7.40 so $17.40 total. Take that and bet it at -105 in R2 and you get $33.97. Take your $33.97 and bet it at +100 (slight underdog) and you get $67.94. Take that and they'd only need to be slight underdogs in the Cup Final (+105ish) to get you a final return near $150 commensurate to a 14/1 bet.

    The advantage with betting series to series is not having your money tied up long term and in being able to jump out earlier in response to new information. In the end you are getting a similar return for a bet you are unlikely to win. The odds on these currently listed are closer to "fair value" than "good value". Give me a bet where I am winning significantly more than I would rolling things over series to series and there's good value. I can't get there with any of these.
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  3. #48
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay looking to break the single-season wins record

    Quote Originally Posted by metaldude26 View Post
    That's not how that would work if you're rolling over your bets.

    Let's say they are -135 favourites in R1. You bet $10 and they win so you get your $10 back plus $7.40 so $17.40 total. Take that and bet it at -105 in R2 and you get $33.97. Take your $33.97 and bet it at +100 (slight underdog) and you get $67.94. Take that and they'd only need to be slight underdogs in the Cup Final (+105ish) to get you a final return near $150 commensurate to a 14/1 bet.

    The advantage with betting series to series is not having your money tied up long term and in being able to jump out earlier in response to new information. In the end you are getting a similar return for a bet you are unlikely to win. The odds on these currently listed are closer to "fair value" than "good value". Give me a bet where I am winning significantly more than I would rolling things over series to series and there's good value. I can't get there with any of these.
    Well this is embarrassing. I must have skipped over the part where you originally said "roll over" your bets

  4. #49
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay looking to break the single-season wins record

    61 wins on the year.

  5. #50
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    Default Re: Tampa Bay looking to break the single-season wins record

    Even if they hit 62 wins... it's not really 62 wins.

    Detroit did it with ties. that's 62-13-7.

    TB has 55 Regulation and overtime wins
    This would give them a '95/'96 record of 55-19-7 (they've had 4 OT losses, 1 was in a SO - effectively being a tie under the old system)

    Then we should consider that OT in 95/96 was played 5x5 - meaning it was harder to win in OT.
    There's a reason they went to 3x3 afterall

    I have no idea how to quantify that into W/L -
    but most likely there's a couple OT Wins that would have resulted in ties if they still played 5x5.

    It's been a hell of a season for TB, but they're a fair distance from the '95/96 Red Wings team.
    IMO. They need 61 Wins in Regulation & Overtime combined to get consideration.

    Shootout wins should not be counted when comparing to a record set in a world of ties.
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