Goalie Futures - Varlamov and Mrazek

[BlackhawksFan]

Trying to gauge the value of Varlamov and Mrazek next year and beyond for league in signature.

First, do they resign with current teams (COL and CAR)? Or, do they test FA and go elsewhere? Either way(staying or going) what value do you see them having moving forward?

Second, predictions on salary with current team or elsewhere?

My take. Varlamov tests FA market. Grubauer was signed to be heir apparent. While neither goalie has separated from the other on a struggling COL team, with Grubauer's contract, i see him at a minimun as a 1a next year. I doubt Varlamov will sign for less to stay. I see him getting 4.0-5.0m per year on maybe a two or three year contract elsewhere.

Mrazek will resign with CAR. While he and McElhinney are in a timeshare and much as the COL sitaution, neither has separated themselves. Mrazek has age in his benefit. I can see Mrazek resigning with CAR as well as McElhinney for a 1a/1b situation. I think he gets a raise, in the 2.5-3.5m range for two or three years.

Opinions?

[Eskimo Brother]

It's so tough to predict where they are going to sign, and that has an impact both on the expected salary, as well as the volume, as well as the production.

Ideally for you for Mrzaek, he re-signs in Carolina on a contract similar to Grubauer's or Hutton's (big enough to be the starter, but not enough to hurt you badly in a cap league).

Ideally for Varlamov, he gets a fresh start away from the new Grubauer contract. Where would that be? Replacing Bobrovsky in Columbus, Replacing Smith in Calgary, or maybe even taking over Mrazek's net in Carolina (backed up by McElhinney or Nedeljkovic. He probably commands a little more than Mrazek, maybe something similar to what Koskinen got.

That being said, the goalie market is fairly saturated right now, and with Lehner, Bob, Smith, Elliott, Talbot, Kinkaid, etc, all hitting free-agency as well, there may not be enough spots to fill. Especially if we see a 1A/1B situation get traded away. Perhaps one of Halak, Khudobin, etc are seen as a stopgap starter to a young stud. Really tough betting a lot on a FA goalie right now. You could have a Lehner on you hands for next year, or you could have a Grubauer.

If you're looking for the one of the two most likely to get a solid starting job for next year, seeing more starts, regardless of contract cost, my bet would be Varlamov.
If you're looking for more contractual value, with some likely solid ratios, I would pick Mrazek.

[BlackhawksFan]

Thanks for all the feedback Eskimo. Wow.... That's some in depth info there!

[BlackhawksFan]

Yeah. I'm in wait and see approach the next few years. Have Varlamov/Mrazek/Saros/Husso/Primeau/Jarry as goaltenders .I like my pipeline. Just treading water waiting

[stevegamer]

I like Mrazek's talent more than Varlamov, but he's fallen off badly since his great years in Detroit.

Will be interesting to see what Carolina does. I think McElhinney is likely back, as he's an old goalie and mostly a career backup who should come pretty cheaply. I could see them bringing Mrazek back, if he's turned the corner and back on track. They have Darling, who could end up being in the mix of guys moving around, of which EB mentioned a lot of, but there are just so many right now.