Playoffs - Do I start Bob tonight?

[Terministo125]

9 categories (6 player, 3 goalie).
We both appear to have 3 player categories locked each so it just leaves the goalie cats.

The goalie categories are wins, sv%, and shutout. I have Bishop and Bob, he has Martin Jones and Kuemper. Right now we are tied at 3 wins and 1 shutout each. I am winning sv percentage .946 to .931. I have the tie breaker so if it ends 4-4, I move on to the next round.

Since Bishop is injured tonight is most likely my last goalie match (Bob vs Carolina).

Hoping that shutouts will stay tied at 1 each. I only need to win one of wins and sv % to move on. Do I risk the high percentage for the win tonight? (I already have my minimum goalie starts).

[hockeyrobot]

I would be starting Bob tonight. Sounds like you have the advantage here.

[LawMan]

The way you break it down I say bench him.

The odds of a shutout for any goalie start are rather low, the odds of improving your .946 are extremely low, the odds of worsening your .946 below his .931 are decent. If Bob were to give up 3 that could set you below .931 and with no goalie starts left your opponent could bench his way to victory. You risk losing SOs but its a risk I'd be willing to take.

[Pengwin7]

^Agree with LawMan, bench him.

You need to take SV%... and you should have that.
If your opponent has 2+ goalie starts in already, then the only way he jumps over .946 sv% is if his goalie gets... a SHUTOUT.
AND... IF your opponent gets a shutout - you are TOAST anyways, because your opponent will take SO... and, of course, its an extra WIN, so he'll take WIN too.

Best goalies only get about 5-6so per year.
NHL season has about 25 weeks, so there's only 20% chance for a shutout in any given week, which means only about a 8%-%10 chance in the last 3 days of this week.

A good strategist plays the odds.
We always remember the times when the odds don't work out... but that's exactly what happens when something is a 90% certainty.

Right now, I'd say this is about a 90% certainty that you take SV% and tie SO if you bench Bob.
(Just don't give me/us shit if this is the 1 in 10 time... because once in ten... it will be THAT time!)


This situation IS the exact time & place for perfect math.
List all of the logged goalie starts by YOU and your OPPONENT this week.
That way we can figure out what SV% your opponent would need in an upcoming start to jump your .946sv%.

[Terministo125]

Thank you guys for the replies.

I calculated that my opponent would need a 24 save shutout to pass me in save percentage. I was leaning towards benching him already but I wanted to make sure that I wasn't being too risk adverse.

I won't give anyone here any shit if it doesn't work out lol

[Moses]

.....aaaaaaand Bob drops a 46 save SO. Lol. Because goalies.

[hockeyrobot]

46 save shutout must be up there with the most saves for one this year.

[The Guvnah]

Lol I probably would have benched him in your case but that's pretty funny.

[Terministo125]

What a mess lol. Hopefully this doesn't end my season