Forum challenge - your early draft strategy

[horrorfan]

I have a challenge for you, and would appreciate your help. Firstly, the settings:

Yahoo, one-year, 20 teams, Roto
C,1B,2B,SS,3B,IF,3OF,2Util,4SP,3RP,2P,4BN,4DL
R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS,W,SV,HLD,K,ERA,WHIP
Max games=162, Max innings=1475

I have recently found out that I will be autodrafting at the turn (20th/21st), so I'm currently making adjustments to my already extensive pre-draft rankings. Knowing that I'm in this draft position, it might give me a bit of control of the type of players I want in the early part of the draft. Of course, I won't have full control, but I do have some thoughts on what I might do.

However, without revealing these thoughts just yet, I would like you to give me some input on how you would structure the first few picks. In other words, what would your ideal starting core look like, from this position and in such a league. I thought this might be an interesting exercise to help me with my rankings and to generate a discussion.

A summary of my early pick positions:

1.20
2.21
3.60
4.61
5.100
6.101

No point going later than that as control goes out the window, but even the first four picks would be helpful.

Over to you, and thanks!

[Eskimo Brother]

Being in the DobberBaseball league with picks at 23 and 26 I have a pretty good sense of what will be available to you on that 20/21 turn. A league that deep WITH and extra IF slot must mean the IFs are much more valuable than OF. So I would be targeting at least one of those with my pick 20, and then probably a SP as well (especially one on a good team for the wins). Tough to plan that out well enough in a 20 team league though, as I don't think it's a great idea to go SP/SP with your first two, so I would lean towards erring on the side of landing extra IFs. Check out who is usually around in the 15-25 range of drafts, and pick two guys you like there. I would personally bump the OFs a little later in this league, again just because of the depth.

The other strategy I would have is loading up on a lot of RP. Usually you can do well in ERA/WHIP with that, they won't hurt you in Ks, and you're chasing SVs as one category, and Holds as another, and sometimes RPs get you a W anyways, while starters only get you wins. Not that I target them early, but I would try to fill my bench up with them as much as possible.

Moving on to the 60s, there are still some solid IF here. I would hope after these two picks to have at least two of my 2B, 3B, SS positions filled. After that you can fill in the rest with personal preference on the depth of the rest of each position.

I would also blacklist every catcher so none even get drafted. The 15th catcher doesn't vary much to the 30th, but taking one much earlier takes away from a RP you could have earlier.

That's about all I have for this right now off the top of my head, at least without giving away too much in the ongoing DobberBaseball draft!

[horrorfan]

Thanks for your comments, EB.

Being in the DobberBaseball league with picks at 23 and 26 I have a pretty good sense of what will be available to you on that 20/21 turn. A league that deep WITH and extra IF slot must mean the IFs are much more valuable than OF. So I would be targeting at least one of those with my pick 20, and then probably a SP as well (especially one on a good team for the wins). Tough to plan that out well enough in a 20 team league though, as I don't think it's a great idea to go SP/SP with your first two, so I would lean towards erring on the side of landing extra IFs. Check out who is usually around in the 15-25 range of drafts, and pick two guys you like there. I would personally bump the OFs a little later in this league, again just because of the depth.

The other strategy I would have is loading up on a lot of RP. Usually you can do well in ERA/WHIP with that, they won't hurt you in Ks, and you're chasing SVs as one category, and Holds as another, and sometimes RPs get you a W anyways, while starters only get you wins. Not that I target them early, but I would try to fill my bench up with them as much as possible.

Looking at the hitters first, I usually target them first so I have no pitchers in the top 20 so far. I agree, IF is important and given the depth of the top 20, and the number of top infielders available, I should get one of them at least, if not two.

About starting pitchers, I should say that in the seven years I've been in this league, the earliest I've ever drafted a starting pitcher is the beginning of the 3rd round (pick 41). I've also been fairly successful overall so I have been fortunate with this strategy to date. Not sure about changing that this year (understanding the perception of aces being more important this year) or whether I continue what I've done previously and go for two hitters.

Moving on to the 60s, there are still some solid IF here. I would hope after these two picks to have at least two of my 2B, 3B, SS positions filled. After that you can fill in the rest with personal preference on the depth of the rest of each position.

I would also blacklist every catcher so none even get drafted. The 15th catcher doesn't vary much to the 30th, but taking one much earlier takes away from a RP you could have earlier.

If I went for hitters first, then I would look for my pitchers here and ranking more early. For RP, I'm tempted to try and get one here but it's less known who will be available. At 60/61, we are definitely looking at the top RP and given the league depth it's not easy to predict how early they will go. Also, there is a risk that I put too many of them higher up, I end up with 2 RP and no SP. I guess this could be a reason to aim for a SP in the second; however, the same risk applies. Given an autodraft and picking twice in a row, there is risk of getting two guys from one position, when you only want one.

Right now, my thinking is two hitters first, and then putting more pitchers higher up to guarantee at least one, with one RP above the group, and one below them. I think I would rather end up with 2 SP than 2 RP if all else equal, and hope I can land my first RP at pick 100 or 101, by ranking a few of them higher. Of course, by this point, the draft pick ranges start to widen so it's unclear who I could get. I wonder how a 2 IF (20/21), 2 SP (60/61) and 2 RP (100/101) would look. Usually I'm stronger offensively but this could give me a more balanced core, then load up on hitters from there.

Things to consider for sure.

That's about all I have for this right now off the top of my head, at least without giving away too much in the ongoing DobberBaseball draft!

I would consider strategy for a 12 team H2H is quite different than a 20 team Roto, so you won't be giving too much information away!


(To all) - keep the suggestions coming!

[Eskimo Brother]

Just to clarify, I don't think it makes sense to go for a RP at 60, I just wanted to bring it up that they don't warrant skimming over. Ideally in your league in the first 6 picks I probably want 4 batters and 2 pitchers, with minimum one of those being a starter.

[horrorfan]

Just to clarify, I don't think it makes sense to go for a RP at 60, I just wanted to bring it up that they don't warrant skimming over. Ideally in your league in the first 6 picks I probably want 4 batters and 2 pitchers, with minimum one of those being a starter.

Yeah I like that balance better, but it's more difficult to achieve.

It'll be easy to get two hitters early, and I'm confident I could get at least one SP at 60 or 61. But it's the other picks that could go in any number of different ways.

Food for thought.

[PenguinHunter]

Wow. A 20 team league... that is going to be a deep league and to autodraft is definitely a tough battler.

My best advice... hire someone to draft for you, so those picks at 20-21 don't end up both being the sam position and really setting you back at the start. I know in theory setting up your rankings you could have some control over this. My rankings have a a lot of middle infielders right around the 20-21 spots. And other managers letting players drop or reaching for some players it is a bit out of control.

And wise managers around the turn will be able to use it to their advantage if they know you are on autodraft. If they see you have two SS already... and they need one... they will let the guy they want go through the turn and take a player you may want.

Now actually to the advice. I think I would want to aim for a combination of a 2B, 3B or 1B at the point in the draft based on my expected rankings. I am thinking Goldschmidt, Baez or Machado would be a great start.

But the power of 1 plays a huge roll. All it takes is 1 guy ahead of you to really like one of these guys and they are gone. So based on the power of 1 principles... the best advice is for you to create your rankings based SOLELY on who you would pick and in what order you prefer the players.

You can only control how you rank players...and you have 0 control over how the draft goes... so don't try getting cute and guessing how the draft may go... cause this never goes well. Set your rankings and trust your rankings and go from there!

[Trav The Ump]

Hate to be the realist to this thread, but you better go a crazy experimental theory. Nevermind drafting 20th in a 20 team league means you are so far behind the 8 ball to start but then compounding that with auto-draft you're just playing for fun. You're team will have no chance. You'll miss any runs and as mentioned above if the computer picks two of the same position back to back you could be 80 picks out on a certain need.

Damn the torpedoes and do something like all pitching or all hitting and just let the chips fall where they may, do something fun that will get you engaged or you'll be dead and gone by mid-May.

[horrorfan]

Wow. A 20 team league... that is going to be a deep league and to autodraft is definitely a tough battler.

My best advice... hire someone to draft for you, so those picks at 20-21 don't end up both being the sam position and really setting you back at the start. I know in theory setting up your rankings you could have some control over this. My rankings have a a lot of middle infielders right around the 20-21 spots. And other managers letting players drop or reaching for some players it is a bit out of control.

And wise managers around the turn will be able to use it to their advantage if they know you are on autodraft. If they see you have two SS already... and they need one... they will let the guy they want go through the turn and take a player you may want.

Now actually to the advice. I think I would want to aim for a combination of a 2B, 3B or 1B at the point in the draft based on my expected rankings. I am thinking Goldschmidt, Baez or Machado would be a great start.

But the power of 1 plays a huge roll. All it takes is 1 guy ahead of you to really like one of these guys and they are gone. So based on the power of 1 principles... the best advice is for you to create your rankings based SOLELY on who you would pick and in what order you prefer the players.

You can only control how you rank players...and you have 0 control over how the draft goes... so don't try getting cute and guessing how the draft may go... cause this never goes well. Set your rankings and trust your rankings and go from there!

Thanks for the comments. I don't want anyone to draft for me - I prefer the challenge of autodrafting. Sure, it's not as fun, but I've done it enough that I can spend the time adjusting the rankings trying to give myself a competitive team.

As for guys you suggest to target, it would be great to get one of them, but I doubt they make it that far. But as mentioned above to EB, I do have a lot of infielders in that range so I should be able to get two solid guys, even if I have to reach a bit. Right now I am guaranteed two hitters given how I have them ranked. But I will continue to tweak to make sure that I don't get someone I don't want. For example, I know that 2 or 3 pitchers should go in the first round, so that means anyone I have ranked below 18 (but before 25 or so) I won't get. I find the first two rounds the easiest to predict, but the next two will be the challenge.

Yep, will be tough as someone could reach or think like me and there goes my target. Always the risk. It's trying to manage it the best I can because of the back-to-back picks. I think I should try to not rank too many players that I don't want early too close together, in case they fall.

It'll be an interesting challenge for sure.

Hate to be the realist to this thread, but you better go a crazy experimental theory. Nevermind drafting 20th in a 20 team league means you are so far behind the 8 ball to start but then compounding that with auto-draft you're just playing for fun. You're team will have no chance. You'll miss any runs and as mentioned above if the computer picks two of the same position back to back you could be 80 picks out on a certain need.

Damn the torpedoes and do something like all pitching or all hitting and just let the chips fall where they may, do something fun that will get you engaged or you'll be dead and gone by mid-May.

Thanks for the feedback.

I should add some background information that I haven't mentioned yet. I have had to autodraft previously and have done fairly well. Last season specifically, I had the same draft position and had to autodraft. I ended up unbalanced, heavy on hitting and light on pitching. I made a couple deals to improve pitching and ended up winning the league. So I can be competitive. It's difficult for sure, but it is possible.