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Thread: Erik Gustafsson

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    Default Erik Gustafsson

    What is his outlook (points wise only) looking like for next year? Is he the real deal or is this him careering? Can he put up 40+ points for the next few years?
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    he's on pace at 27 for 60pts in his first full NHL season.

    Why would he suddenly careen to 40 or less? Consider he had no points in his first 9gp, his season pace is even more impressive.

    No reason to think he's anything but legit.

    He's put a strangle-hold on PP1 duties. He's also skating 23+min per game on the top pair.

    Settle in, enjoy the ride. Or convince Gus owner he's a one hit wonder, steal him before he reaches Klingberg-esque value... might be time with select few that do not believe.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    I coincidentally did a bunch of digging on him the last couple days after adding him in December. The goal was to see if he was worth targeting next season.

    The short version: Yes, in fact I think he'll put up over 50 next season. I saw nothing alarming about his primary points, corsi, and other advanced stats. He passes the eye test and he's been so good with his deployment for the middle two quarters of the season (the first quarter was Chicago trying everyone but Gus on pp1) that I'm not worried about any of the other d men stealing his job next season (young or old).

    I'll be comfortably targeting him as a 50 point defensmen with upside next season. Enjoy it while he's still somewhat under the radar. I don't expect he will be two years from now.

    What I saw while looking into him reminded me a bit of a younger version of a current Keith Yandle.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    If health and opportunity continue to present themselves, no reason to think there will be a significant regression.

    50+ pts and an essential Points Only league add, imo.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    Quote Originally Posted by jtloveshack View Post
    What is his outlook
    GOAT.

    No, just kidding.. but he has been playing at a point per game pace since late November. 37 points in last 37 games going back to November 24. So yeah, I'd say he can probably maintain at least half of that pace going forward.

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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    As long as his deployment stays the same, he'll continue to produce. Like others have mentioned, he is on the point for PP1 but he is also on the ice for seemingly every shift with the Toews and Kane line at 5-on-5. Gustafson isn't as good as his stats indicate and has somewhat been along for the ride during Kane's brilliant season. He's still a nightmare in his own end but that doesn't really matter for fantasy. I traded him about a month ago when I thought he was overvalued. Whoops
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    Quote Originally Posted by Daydream Nation View Post
    Gustafson isn't as good as his stats indicate and has somewhat been along for the ride during Kane's brilliant season.
    Past 3 games: Kane 3 points, Gustafsson 7 points.

    Seriously though, I can't believe how many Hawks fans wanted to trade Gus at the deadline for a late 1st rounder. How dumb that would be when we have him for another year at less than $2 mil cap hit.

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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    Past 3 games: Kane 3 points, Gustafsson 7 points.

    Seriously though, I can't believe how many Hawks fans wanted to trade Gus at the deadline for a late 1st rounder. How dumb that would be when we have him for another year at less than $2 mil cap hit.
    I definitely wanted the Hawks to trade Gustafson if they could have gotten a good return. Like I said in my previous post, he has been propped up by playing with Kane and Toews and on an unsustainable PP. One more point about Gus is that the Hawks have been bum slaying for the last month and get handled by good teams. Their defense is awful and they give up, iirc, the 2nd most goals in the league. After getting beat by Colorado and Dallas over the weekend, their odds of making the playoffs stand at 7%. I wish some team would have overpaid for Gus at the deadline.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    What would you have considered a “good return”?

    the only d men with more points per game than Gus since Dec 1 are Burns and Giordano. That’s pretty impressive...

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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    Quote Originally Posted by BreadManPanarin View Post
    What would you have considered a “good return”?

    the only d men with more points per game than Gus since Dec 1 are Burns and Giordano. That’s pretty impressive...
    He has been an excellent fantasy hockey find this season and I blew it with him. I never thought he would accumulate this many points by playing with Chicago's elite talent. His slap shot is better than I thought as well. The reason I would have looked to trade him at the deadline is because A) He is not as good as his stats this season and another GM might have overvalued him B) He is the type of player that gets exploited by good teams especially in the playoffs C) One of his main strength, the PP, is diminished in the playoffs D) the Hawks are not going to make the playoffs so sell what you can and improve your draft odds E) The Hawks have so few pieces they can move due to Bowman giving NMCs to everyone. Gus was someone they could move. F) The Hawks will definitely not resign him after next season when he is a UFA so trade him for someone who would be part of your future. G) They have a glut of dmen and need to trade someone.

    What would have been a good return for him? I would have taken a 1st round pick for him or a comparable forward.

    Gustafson's explosion is one major development that would have never happened under Quennville. Under Q, Gustafson would still be on PP2 and getting 11 minutes per night because of some turnover he made 3 games ago.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    One could easily say Kane has bumped everyone on Chicago. I mean over 2pts per game for the past 3 months, He's in on over 50% of all Chicago goals.

    Let's break it down a little bit shall we...
    Since Dec. 1 - Chi has played 37 games.
    Gus has played 34.
    He has 34pts in his last 34gp

    24 of those - primary points. Either goals or primary assists. 70% primary points.

    16 of his 34pts Kane also collected a point - 47% -- Kane has a point on 44% of all Chi goals scored. Pretty close to that average.
    One would expect if being carried by Kane - this number to be above 50%, even 60%.
    A good chunk of these points are primary assists with Kane scoring. So really, maybe Gus is actually giving Kane some gimme's??

    13 of his 34pts have been on the PP - 38% --
    to put that in perspective...
    Yandle 61% are PPP; Burns 35%; Krug 60%; Gio 36%; Carlson 45%; Barrie 45% (I'm just running down the D PPP leaders) --
    Based on the top point producing Dmen in the NHL.

    His PP production would seem more sustainable than a lot of others he's sitting with on the leader-board.

    Really, you break it down a bit. And if someone way better at advanced stats than myself can argue that over 40% PP of total production is sustainable for a Dman, one could begin to create an argument that Gus actually has MORE to give.

    Let's be honest, chi. as a whole is being carried by Kane. But their turnaround also comes along with the emergence of Gus on PP1... and the acquisition of Strome.

    I own Gus in 4/5 pools. I won't be moving him in any of them.
    Taking a bit of a closer look at him since Dec. 1...
    One has to start to wonder if 50pts is his floor and if he's got 70+ in him over the next couple years.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    One could easily say Kane has bumped everyone on Chicago. I mean over 2pts per game for the past 3 months, He's in on over 50% of all Chicago goals.

    Let's break it down a little bit shall we...
    Since Dec. 1 - Chi has played 37 games.
    Gus has played 34.
    He has 34pts in his last 34gp

    24 of those - primary points. Either goals or primary assists. 70% primary points.

    16 of his 34pts Kane also collected a point - 47% -- Kane has a point on 44% of all Chi goals scored. Pretty close to that average.
    One would expect if being carried by Kane - this number to be above 50%, even 60%.
    A good chunk of these points are primary assists with Kane scoring. So really, maybe Gus is actually giving Kane some gimme's??

    13 of his 34pts have been on the PP - 38% --
    to put that in perspective...
    Yandle 61% are PPP; Burns 35%; Krug 60%; Gio 36%; Carlson 45%; Barrie 45% (I'm just running down the D PPP leaders) --
    Based on the top point producing Dmen in the NHL.

    His PP production would seem more sustainable than a lot of others he's sitting with on the leader-board.

    Really, you break it down a bit. And if someone way better at advanced stats than myself can argue that over 40% PP of total production is sustainable for a Dman, one could begin to create an argument that Gus actually has MORE to give.

    Let's be honest, chi. as a whole is being carried by Kane. But their turnaround also comes along with the emergence of Gus on PP1... and the acquisition of Strome.

    I own Gus in 4/5 pools. I won't be moving him in any of them.
    Taking a bit of a closer look at him since Dec. 1...
    One has to start to wonder if 50pts is his floor and if he's got 70+ in him over the next couple years.
    Awesome that you got him in eighty percent of your leagues. I did my own analysis and essentially came to the same conclusion. Everything looked very sustainable, and if anything he has possibly been slightly unlucky since December, hard to believe. I think 50 next season is a safe bet with upside, just don't go telling anyone in my league.

    I'll admit he may not be the best in his own end but not being a huge Chicago fan I couldn't care less about that. In fantasy hockey he's gold Jerry, gold!
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    16 of his 34pts Kane also collected a point - 47% -- Kane has a point on 44% of all Chi goals scored. Pretty close to that average.
    One would expect if being carried by Kane - this number to be above 50%, even 60%.
    A good chunk of these points are primary assists with Kane scoring. So really, maybe Gus is actually giving Kane some gimme's??
    Those are some compelling stats and I easily see the conclusion you draw from them. However, it is not Gus's vision and passing skills setting up Kane for gimmes. Its primarily Kane's brilliance turning normal passes into assists. Gustafson is just getting him the puck. Keith was rewarded for this for years.

    And where do you get those stats from? I never have a good place to find good hockey stats.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    Quote Originally Posted by Daydream Nation View Post
    Those are some compelling stats and I easily see the conclusion you draw from them. However, it is not Gus's vision and passing skills setting up Kane for gimmes. Its primarily Kane's brilliance turning normal passes into assists. Gustafson is just getting him the puck. Keith was rewarded for this for years.

    And where do you get those stats from? I never have a good place to find good hockey stats.
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    Default Re: Erik Gustafsson

    I just grabbed him in our deadline waiver and so glad I did. I'll ride the hype train as long as possible. My team needs a glimmer of hope haha!
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