Laine or Barzal? (Rep)

[FrozenInferno]

Folks,

I very rarely post looking for my own advice because I tend to follow my gut and live with my decisions good or bad but in this case I flat out can't decide what to do.

The Barzal owner in my points-only league has made him available and is looking for a winger as he's strong at center but weaker on the wings.

I'm thinking about offering up Laine and one or two extras like a pick and/or prospect. There is no guarantee he will entertain the idea so assume this is all hypothetical. We do chat fairly often and have a friendly relationship so nobody is out to fleece anyone.

Anyway I'm having a hard time trying to figure out the future upsides of either player. Barzal had a hot rookie season but is having a slower one this year. Will playing in a defensive Trotz system hinder him? Or having to be 'the guy'? He also doesn't shoot or score much himself so being a playmaker means he will rely on his supporting cast to an extent to finish plays and there aren't exactly a plethora of snipers in NYI.

On the other hand Laine is obviously in a slump for the ages right now but we know he's capable of explosive production and despite being in his third season is still only 20 years old with lots of time to shake off the growing pains. Players with 80 goals before the age of 20 don't come around very often so I'm reluctant to trade him at his lowest and have him explode in a year or two for 50+ goals and 90pts or whatever.

Even if they both end up with identical point totals the tie goes to the winger IMO because center tends to be deeper. My other keeper centers are MacKinnon and Tavares so I'm not starving for a center by any means.

In the short term Barzal's consistent production would be a benefit going into playoffs but a well-timed heater from Laine could win me a playoff matchup or two.

TL;DR: Which do you prefer long term, and would a Barzal/Laine deal be fair for both sides?

[macker27]

In a points only league I see Barzal always having the upside. If goals counted for more then obviously stick with Laine but Barzal is the guy in a points only league. He still has 50 points in 58 games in a bottom 10 offense in the league. Laine isn't producing in an arguable top 5 offense. Either way, points based league Barzal has my vote.

[audiopile]

I’m taking Barzal too. Trots style has cut into the Islanders top line
production but Barzal seems pretty consistent regardless. Laine is good when hot but dead when not.

[StuntMan12]

Barzal easily in a pts only league. I might consider Laine over Barzal in a multi-cat league but pts only its Barzal easily.

[Axeman33]

I think both are close but if you are going to make an offer, start with them straight up and see what he says. If he doesn't like it, you can always add but don't show your best hand with your original offer.

[DusterDave]

Call me crazy but I’m keeping Laine here. I might get run out of these forums next season if Laine doesn’t bounce back with all the Laine patience I’ve been preaching but until then I’m still going to believe. He is a goal scorer, just needs to find his game again and put away the Fortnight.

[FrozenInferno]

Lots of Barzal support so far. The new system in NYI definitely has me spooked as does the lack of scoring depth around him. And Laine is a goal scorer yes but that may limit his overall points ceiling because he won't get nearly as many assists as a Barzal would.

I may be overthinking it but I'm still high enough on Laine that I'm reluctant to make a hasty decision based on one down year. This is tough!

Anybody else care to weigh in?

Rep handed out where I could.

[Godin]

Barzal with out a question for me. There aren't that many players that have had 85 points in their rookie years. That is a very special feat.

[FrozenInferno]

Barzal with out a question for me. There aren't that many players that have had 85 points in their rookie years. That is a very special feat.

Not many have 80 goals before they hit 20 either

I agree Barzal has more potential for straight up points but what I'm doubting is whether he can do it in NYI. Laine plays in a much more offensive minded environment.

Appreciate the advice so far guys!

[MZac]

Is Laine ever going to score more points in a season than Barzal if both are healthy? They are still too young to definitively answer that, but I'd lean towards 'probably not' at this stage. The only thing point wise Laine has on barzal is positional eligibility. This is a positional question that is team specific to me more than it is a who can get more points question.

[buddha71]

If goals and assists count equally, then it's a vote for Barzal from me.

[FrozenInferno]

Ran out of rep to give Buddha, I'll hit you up when I can.

Consensus is definitely Barzal. Maybe I'll see if there's a deal to be made.

[MZac]

Ran out of rep to give Buddha, I'll hit you up when I can.

Consensus is definitely Barzal. Maybe I'll see if there's a deal to be made.

So we can't see your team but from your keepers listed you have two top end centers and two top end LW outside of Laine (Panarin / debrincat).

The key here for me would be the likely point differential between barzal and the center you could draft next season VS Laine and the LW you could draft next season.

Id run these calculations with Barzal around 80-85 points next year and Laine at 70 points. Adjust yours based on your projections.

If the next best center you could get is a 60 pointer but the next best LW you could get is a 40 pointer then your point differential favors Laine (30 points VS 25 points).

If it's close I'd always go in favor of the winger as they are generally harder to fill than center. Just a suggestion but there's more to it than just point totals as I think you're well aware.

[YzermansLegacy]

Pretty huge Barzal fan and in a vacuum - for points only I take him. But, as you noted, this is just the absolute WORST time to move Laine imo.

With the prospect depth you have coming on the wings (Svech, Boeser, Zadina), it actually isn't the worst idea to move a W for C.... so I understand the temptation.

BUT - I just don't think this is the optimal move for you (yet). I'd be comfortable rolling Mack/JT and finding a 3rd C that can produce in the draft.

Assist-heavy guys (like Barz) just don't get the same kind of love (valuation) that G-heavy guys like Laine get... even in a pts only format. Look how underrated Backstrom has been throughout his career.

Another 5-goal game for Laine (which he is definitely capable of) and he starts to navigate back to a better value for you...

Gotta hold for now imo. But 100% understand the line of thinking. Especially when a solid talent like Barzal is the target.

[FrozenInferno]

Great counterpoints. This is why I have been having such a hard time valuing both guys haha.