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Thread: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

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    Default Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Hi guys,

    My dynasty league is points only with the wierd exception that +/- also counts for defensemen. 1 pt = 1 Fpt for FW. 1pt & +1 = 2Fpt for Ds (or 1pt & -1 = 0Fpt for Ds).
    We keep 7 players every year (league has 18 teams of 18 players each) and we follow the NHL's salary cap ceiling and cap hits. I do not want to keep any goalies in my top7 so I won't even mention them.

    Here are the players and their cap hits (in 000s) and I would ideally like to remain below 44-45m$ for my top7 next year.

    12500 Connor McDavid
    7500 Vladimir Tarasenko
    4600 Tyler Toffoli
    5175 Kevin Hayes
    925 Casey Mittelstadt
    5750 Mikael Granlund
    10000? Mitch Marner
    8250 Ryan Getzlaf
    3300 Anthony Mantha
    894 Anthony Beauvillier
    4000 Roman Josi
    863 Thomas Chabot
    4500 Shayne Gostisbehere
    11000? Erik Karlsson
    5206 Hampus Lindholm

    Which 7 players would you keep? I'm very much stressed out about Karlsson and Marner's cap hits exploding next year.

    Last year my top7 was: Mcdavid, Tarasenko, Granlund, Marner, Josi, Gostisbehere, Karlsson for a total of 41.6M$. If I keep Chabot instead of Ghost but Marner signs for 10M and EK for 11M$ I'm going up to 51.6M$ which is unmanageable afterwards. I want to be as efficient as possible in terms of pts/$ but also willing to sacrifice efficiency in order to get top end points like in the case of McJesus.

    I'm current hesitating between the following 3 options but each are very uncomfortable. Looking for a 4th better option
    1. Mcdavid, Tank, Granlund, Marner, Josi, Chabot, Gostisbehere, Karlsson: 51.6M$
    2. Mcd, Granlund, Marner, Josi, Chabot, Gostisbehere (Trade Tank & Karlsson for a pick and a cheaper D?) 45.1M for 6 players assuming Marner @ 10M
    3. Mcd, Marner, Josi, Chabot, Gostisbehere, Karlsson (Trade Tank & Granlund for a pick and a cheaper F?) 42.6M for 6 players assuming Karlsson @ 11M


    4. I'm really looking for a better option, if you can come up with other solutions or trade ideas (players to get in exchange for my players you'd want to trade) it would be HIGHLY appreciated.

    Thanks!
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    McDavid 12.5
    Marner 10
    Tank 7.5
    Chabot .9
    Josi 4.
    Granlund 5.75
    Gost 4

    44.65.

    You could swap Mantha for Granlund - I think next year he takes a big step forward. And Tank for EK. That would put you around 47/48m. but you keep Karlsson
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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    McDavid
    Marner
    Chabot
    Josi
    Ghost
    Karlsson
    Mittelstadt

    Tough to cut Tank, but if you really need to cut one, I see him as the odd one out from the top 6. Mittelstadt gives you a lot of flexibility on someone with a decent ceiling, or a great trade chip.
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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    First off, your option 1 has 8 players. So that's an issue right there.

    Trying to group these guys:

    Yes:
    12500 Connor McDavid
    863 Thomas Chabot
    10000? Mitch Marner
    4000 Roman Josi

    No:
    4600 Tyler Toffoli
    5175 Kevin Hayes
    8250 Ryan Getzlaf
    5206 Hampus Lindholm

    Maybe - forwards:
    7500 Vladimir Tarasenko - too pricey
    5750 Mikael Granlund - I prefer Granlund of these 3. Cheaper than Tarasenko, more proven than Mantha.
    3300 Anthony Mantha - may be a decent somewhat cheap otion

    Maybe - Cheapies:
    925 Casey Mittelstadt
    894 Anthony Beauvillier
    I'd see if I could find a believer for one of these two, and see if you can get either a pick back, or a cheap guy you like more, at a different spot.

    Maybe - Defenders:
    4500 Shayne Gostisbehere - should be a solid value still.
    11000? Erik Karlsson - Ideally, i want to keep Karlsson, but I'm unsure if he's really going to score 2.5 times Gostisbehere & Josi. I think Marner outscores him, so I'd rather have him.


    Your issue is trying to have too many superstar contracts on one team, and if you want Marner/McDavid/Karlsson, that's your 3.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: F Andersen
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    D: Hainsey, M Reilly, Carlson, Gustafsson, Klingberg, Letang,
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    D: Gardiner, Gostisbehere, Schultz, Werenski
    F: Bailey, Johnsson, Killorn, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas, Tuch, Voracek

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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    McDavid 12.5
    Marner 10
    Tank 7.5
    Chabot .9
    Josi 4.
    Granlund 5.75
    Gost 4

    44.65.

    You could swap Mantha for Granlund - I think next year he takes a big step forward. And Tank for EK. That would put you around 47/48m. but you keep Karlsson
    LUCA!!! Say what...

    In an 18 team keep 7 league you aren't keeping Erik Karlsson?!?!?!?! LOL. I thought I knew you.
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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    For my part, I wouldn't let superstars slip even if their cap hit are high (unless you had 8 of them :P )

    So locks are McD, Karlsson and Marner. No question for me here

    Next you have the very good players with very good contracts: Josi, Chabot, Gost (makes for a very nice D corps also)

    So in reality my choice would be for the last spot and the runners right now are : Tank, Granlund, Mitt, Mantha
    Tank: We know what he is at this point, you can expect anywhere from 65-80pts out of him but he isn't your cheapest option.
    Granlund : On a team that is aging a lot, Granlund is the lone bright spot and is cheaper at the moment. He should be have all the opportunity and ice time in the world going forward, I also see him in the 65-80pts range
    Mitt: Still needs to adjust and very talented, in my opinion he is redraftable next year because he hasn't exploded - yet. I don't think I'd keep him but he's your cheapest option here.
    Mantha: He COULD go in the 60s next year, but if the 'new thumb rule' for bigger and heavier forwards has them peaking at 350-400gp, he's projected to burst in the scene in 2 years time. Also, easily redraftable imo.

    So my last keeper for you would be Granlund .
    10 team, 14 players H2H points only keeper league with cap (65M). 1 mandatory rookie active on the lineup. Projected keepers in bold.
    F: Tavares, Kucherov, Pastrnak, Granlund, Stone, Pettersson
    D: Letang, Barrie, Suter
    G: Hellebuyck
    Bench: Gibson, Werenski, Meier
    ----------------------------------------------
    12 team, H2H pts only. 25-man rosters, start 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D and 2G. Keep 12 + 3 optional rookie spots
    C - Tavares, Kuznetsov
    RW - Kucherov, Meier
    LW - Hoffman, Ehlers
    D - Josi, Dumba, Krug, OEL
    G - Rask, Rinne
    Prospects (need to cut to 3): Demko, Tolvanen, Necas, Kaprizov, C. White, Jokijarhu


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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Thanks a lot to all of you guys.
    I'm going to keep Mcdavid, Marner, Karlsson, Josi, Chabot, Gostisbehere and try to find a cheap 7th player. For now I'm keeping Mittelstadt but I will try to get a better option. It's hard to find a solid player that is available and still ELC next year. Do you guys know of any online tools where one could sort players by points for this year but filter for salary for next year? So let's say all players that will be under 3.5M$ cap hit next year, sorted by points this year.
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by gcefaloni View Post
    I'm going to keep Mcdavid, Marner, Karlsson, Josi, Chabot, Gostisbehere and try to find a cheap 7th player.
    Just to toss in another two cents. Keeping four D in a keep 7 is an unusual strategy. Between now and keeper-decision-time you may want to see if you can swap one of those D out for an equally good winger.
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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by gcefaloni View Post
    Do you guys know of any online tools where one could sort players by points for this year but filter for salary for next year? So let's say all players that will be under 3.5M$ cap hit next year, sorted by points this year.
    You might be able to do that on FrozenTools, but I know for sure you can do it at capfriendly.
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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimo Brother View Post
    You might be able to do that on FrozenTools, but I know for sure you can do it at capfriendly.
    I tried to go on capfriendly.com/browse but I can only sort be cap hit for next year and have to scroll and scroll across all players. I cannot find the area where to actually filter for next year's cap hits (in the contracts section) while taking this year's points as a sort.
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    LUCA!!! Say what...

    In an 18 team keep 7 league you aren't keeping Erik Karlsson?!?!?!?! LOL. I thought I knew you.
    He's going to get 11m. When he's got Ghost at 4.5, Josi at 4 and Chabot on ELC... He's got 3 really good offensive options already. That was my rationale
    Yesterday's weirdness is tomorrow's reason why. - H.S.T.

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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by gcefaloni View Post
    I tried to go on capfriendly.com/browse but I can only sort be cap hit for next year and have to scroll and scroll across all players. I cannot find the area where to actually filter for next year's cap hits (in the contracts section) while taking this year's points as a sort.
    I recommend simply going to the teams where the players you need to check. It also gives you some info on how the contract structures of the team as a whole set up.
    10 team Head-to-head true dynasty. Roster 33, draft 2, cut down before season. Start 1 G, 1-2 backup G's, 6 D, 12 F arranged in 4 lines of 3. Only categories that matter are Goals, Assists, Save% with a shutout bonus. Having NHL teammates helps.

    G: F Andersen
    Backup G: Holtby
    D: Hainsey, M Reilly, Carlson, Gustafsson, Klingberg, Letang,
    F1: Couturier, Giroux, MacKinnon
    F2: Schiefele, Wheeler, Guentzel
    F3: Benn, Seguin, Pavelski,
    F4: Point, Stamkos, Tavares

    Bench:
    G: Bobrovsky
    D: Gardiner, Gostisbehere, Schultz, Werenski
    F: Bailey, Johnsson, Killorn, Labanc, JT Miller, Necas, Tuch, Voracek

    Reserve: Datsyuk

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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by stevegamer View Post
    I recommend simply going to the teams where the players you need to check. It also gives you some info on how the contract structures of the team as a whole set up.
    That's the problem hehe. I'm trying to see which players that I didn't think of already that will be under let's say 3.5M$ in cap hit next year. A filter is great for that.
    7 Keepers Salary Cap League (73M Cap)/ 18 Teams / 10 FW, 5 D, 2G, 2 Scratches.
    FW: 1pt = 1 FPt
    D: 1pt = 1 FPt & +/- = +or- 1 FPt
    G: (TOI*0.05/GAA)

    FW: Mitchell Marner, Nathan MacKinnon, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Connor McDavid, John Tavares, Daniel Sedin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Tobias Rieder, Claude Giroux, Matt Cullen, Mathew Barzal
    D: John Carlson, Mike Green, Ivan Provorov, Kevin Shattenkirk, Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie
    G: Brian Elliott, Chad Johnson

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    Default Re: Preparing for next year:: Which top7 to keep?

    Quote Originally Posted by gcefaloni View Post

    1 pt = 1 Fpt for [forward].
    1pt & +1 = 2Fpt for D


    12500 Connor McDavid
    7500 Vladimir Tarasenko

    4600 Tyler Toffoli
    5175 Kevin Hayes
    925 Casey Mittelstadt
    5750 Mikael Granlund
    10000? Mitch Marner
    8250 Ryan Getzlaf
    3300 Anthony Mantha
    894 Anthony Beauvillier
    4000 Roman Josi
    863 Thomas Chabot

    4500 Shayne Gostisbehere
    11000? Erik Karlsson
    5206 Hampus Lindholm

    My picks.
    Win this style of league with a high-low.
    Your "HIGH" players need to be capable of a benchmark value of 10pt per $1m salary.

    McDavid... he still has 125pt potential, IMO.

    Marner will get $10m+ and I don't think he can do 100pt with TOR depth.

    Karlsson is out, he'll get $10m+ and it's just hard to do 70pts and +30.

    Josi will do 40+pts AND he gets positive PLUS.

    Ghost is out. Sorry, yes he can do 40-50pts, but he's a MINUS player... that hurts you here.
    50pts along with -10 is still a net of 40pts... which ain't 10pt per $1m


    Tank is in. He's still a 75pt+ guy, just a slow year.
    You wait until Robert Thomas starts clicking that powerplay PP1 even MORE into gear.

    Mantha is my last. He'll do 33+pts, maybe 50pts... and that's good return on $3.3m.

    Granlund is a good player too... he could do 70pts on $5.75m... which is 12.5pts over my "benchmark", but I just have more faith in Mantha to surplus on the 10pt per $1m.


    Ultimately, look to pair a "HIGH" player with a "LOW" player... maybe at $13.5m total.
    McDavid ($12.5m) + ELC-dynamo ($1m)... and you want to get maybe 160pts there. 120 from McDavid, 40 from the ELC rookie.
    That's 160pts per $13.5m... or 12pts per $1m... good!

    Keep trying that and see what lends you best value.


    The big value here is finding a rookie D that might put up 20pts and +20.
    Some rookie pairing UP on a good team can do that with token assists alone.
    Guys like Brenden Dillon, Michal Kempny, Erik Cernak, Scott Mayfield... all great value for D because of their +/- playing with good D partners.

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