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Thread: Marner offer sheet?

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    Default Marner offer sheet?

    I'm usually pretty good at ignoring rumors regarding offer sheets, since they are so rare, but talks about Marner getting one this summer keep gaining steam. If he signs a deal with the Leafs, I'd say we can average a deal at 9.5-10mil per season, but an offer sheet can get into the 11-11.5mil range, and that's a ton of cap space for a dynasty salary cap league.
    What do you all think are the odds he signs an offer sheet? And if he does, how much will it be for?
    I'm starting to think that it might be smart to try and get a king's ransom for Marner now, before he becomes way too expensive. Any thoughts?

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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Offer sheets are weird.
    I sort of feel more like GMs have an unspoken code where you just don't offer-sheet another guy's player... unless you want to alienate yourself from the crowd.
    And then you have to have a player that is going to also rub people the wrong way by signing with another team.
    So... you sort of need two greedy douchebags (I'm being extreme here) to pull that off. (/unhappy, /vengeful, /opportunistic... pick your adjective for reasoning)

    Marner doesn't fit the "greedy" bill, so I just don't see it happening.
    Last time an offer sheet was signed was ROR in 2013 with CGY - here's article on tiers of compensation.
    So... it's been 5+ years since an offer sheets - which sort of suggests something, after there HAD been about 1 per year prior to 2013...

    The 2nd lowest offer sheet compensation is $10.1m... so plug that in as your "worst case" - my estimate.
    I don't think any team is willing to part with FOUR first rounders... that's just crazy for a winger, crazy.

    Personally, I'll ballpark the Leafs as:
    Matthews 6x11 = $66m. Same CapHit as Tavares, keeps clubhouse from having the "kid" as the high-money earner - as that can rub people the wrong way over an elite vet like Tavares not being big-dog.
    Marner 8x9 = $72m. $9m is more than Draisaitl got ($8.5) and that would be quite a compliment for Marner being a winger - whereas Draisaitl can play two-way center.

    My Vegas over/under on Marner would be $9.2m.


    Some fun wiki history on Offer Sheets.

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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    If it's a long-term offer sheet which I would expect it to be, it's most definitely going to be four 1st round picks as compensation because the total value is divided by five if the number of years exceeds that. So even if they offer $9Mx6 years, it's $10.8M for offer sheet compensation purposes. The only way it would stay below four 1st round picks is $10.1M for 5 years - and I think the Leafs would just match that.

    This from CapFriendly https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator
    The AAV for an offer sheet, which determines the compensation required, is derived by dividing the total contract value amount by the lesser of:
    number of years offered, or
    five (5) years

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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    If it's a long-term offer sheet which I would expect it to be, it's most definitely going to be four 1st round picks as compensation because the total value is divided by five if the number of years exceeds that. So even if they offer $9Mx6 years, it's $10.8M for offer sheet compensation purposes. The only way it would stay below four 1st round picks is $10.1M for 5 years - and I think the Leafs would just match that.

    This from CapFriendly https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator
    agree, other thing that is missing here is that most (not all) teams that can actually afford this cap hit are not very good so those picks could be lottery picks for most or all of them. Its a hard pill to swallow in today's NHL for one superstar...you need 5-6 good to great players to compete.
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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Marner will be signed before offer sheets become a possibility. The reason they rode Nylander to the last minute was to ensure they had the space to sign Marner.

    ... and they will.

    Non-issue because no one will get the chance.
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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    If the leafs let Marner get to July 1st they deserve to lose him and gain four 1st rounders. I don't think they let it happen. They'll sign him and if his agent was smart he found a way to leak this. Or maybe it was his dad... Either way, bodes well for Marner going north of 10mil per imo.
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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    Marner will be signed before offer sheets become a possibility. The reason they rode Nylander to the last minute was to ensure they had the space to sign Marner.

    ... and they will.

    Non-issue because no one will get the chance.
    But what's to say Marner doesn't sign because they're waiting to make sure they have enough for Matthews. Or what if he wants to see what they give Matthews.

    To say it's a non issue after what happened with Nylander is a bit of an oversight.

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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    Personally, I'll ballpark the Leafs as:
    Matthews 6x11 = $66m. Same CapHit as Tavares, keeps clubhouse from having the "kid" as the high-money earner - as that can rub people the wrong way over an elite vet like Tavares not being big-dog.
    Marner 8x9 = $72m. $9m is more than Draisaitl got ($8.5) and that would be quite a compliment for Marner being a winger - whereas Draisaitl can play two-way center.
    My Vegas over/under on Marner would be $9.2m.
    Why would Marner sign for $2M per year less than Matthews? Marner has better numbers in each of the past 2 seasons, doesn't miss games and plays 1.5 minutes more per game. Marner kills penalties while Matthews doesn't. If anything Marner should be making $2M per year more than Matthews but there is no way that is going to happen.

    Any way you look at it, the Leafs are in cap trouble next season. They have $65,000,000 in cap hit with 7 forwards, 5 dmen (counting Justin Holl) and 1 goalie. They are going to be paying more than $20,000,000 for Marner and Matthews which would put them over the cap and they would still be short 5 players.

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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Quote Originally Posted by chuckcouples View Post
    Why would Marner sign for $2M per year less than Matthews? Marner has better numbers in each of the past 2 seasons, doesn't miss games and plays 1.5 minutes more per game. Marner kills penalties while Matthews doesn't. If anything Marner should be making $2M per year more than Matthews but there is no way that is going to happen.

    rs.
    I tend to agree with this. I know center vs wing and all that but it sure seems like Marner is the more dangerous player who makes things work for the Leafs. I don't see how Tavares and Mathews are 11 M players and Marner is a 9 M.
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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    If I'm working for another team seeing what kind of young talent the Leafs have put together but how things went awry with Nylander I am wondering how I can mess with that situation. You technically can't tamper with the player right now, so talking contract with the agent isn't possible right now, but you can leak something to the media. See what kind of dissent that stirs up, what kind of media heat. You don't even necessarily have to submit the offer sheet, maybe leaking this stuff is enough to get the Leafs to blink and go above market in an offer to Marner when summer hits. Or maybe it gives Marner enough juice to consider a hard stance similar to Nylander. It's almost a no-lose proposition to float that out there right now.
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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Quote Originally Posted by lucafen4 View Post
    Marner will be signed before offer sheets become a possibility. The reason they rode Nylander to the last minute was to ensure they had the space to sign Marner.

    ... and they will.

    Non-issue because no one will get the chance.
    Dubas has gone on record stating his preference would be to have both Matthews & Marner signed before the trading deadline but he also realizes the players need to be comfortable with the deal and won't rush them.

    I too feel both will be signed - before the end of the season. Nobody wants the distraction during the playoffs.
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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pit Bulls View Post
    Nobody wants the distraction during the playoffs.
    I hadn’t realized that after the Leafs lost to the powerhouse Red Wings last night, they clinched a playoff berth. Oh wait...

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    Default Re: Marner offer sheet?

    Quote Originally Posted by Skippy View Post
    I hadn’t realized that after the Leafs lost to the powerhouse Red Wings last night, they clinched a playoff berth. Oh wait...
    The Athletic's model has the Leafs odds of making the playoffs at 99.5%. And that's after losing to Detroit.

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