Traded for 1st Overall - Take Hughes?

[Rockies & Hockeys]

For the Keep-6 league in my sig, I just accepted the trade offer of my two late first rounders (10th and 11th/12th overall) for his first overall (guaranteed) and a 7th rounder. There are pretty good guys available late in the first round, but I honestly couldn't pass up the chance to grab Hughes first overall. There would be more "sure things" that I could grab instead (I've got arguably the best keeper core and my best non-keepers will probably be Klingberg, Tarasenko and Forsberg), but it seems like Hughes will be a generational-type player like Matthews or Eichel.

Do you think it's too risky to take Hughes first (vs taking an established star), or are you guys planning to do the same if you get the chance? Also, what do you think of my trade? Would you have done the same?

[timmodonuts]

I would imagine Hughes will be overall #1 fantasy pick from this draft, not sure I understand the question about risk. Good trade for you, you don't need depth, you need one more star and then you should be set.

[lucafen4]

This would mean you keep a 4th Centre? I keep Eichel, Seguin, Scheifele over Hubs... and would keep Hughes upside over him too. Best move might be to see if you can trade to 2nd slot and take Kakko

[Rockies & Hockeys]

This would mean you keep a 4th Centre? I keep Eichel, Seguin, Scheifele over Hubs... and would keep Hughes upside over him too. Best move might be to see if you can trade to 2nd slot and take Kakko

Yeah, I don't love how many centers I've been keeping, but I'm kind of planning to trade Seguin in the off season for a couple pick upgrades (or package him and Klingberg or something like that for a keeper upgrade). I've kept Seguin in years past over Huberdeau and other similar wingers, but I might keep Hubs or Forsberg or someone if I can trade away Seguin for good picks in the off-season.

Basically my sure-fire keepers are Eichel, Scheifele, Kucherov and Karlsson, and I plan to have Hughes added to that list after next season if all goes well with him. How seriously do you think I should look at Kakko? I know he's supposed to be good, but honestly I've got another first rounder probably around 8th overall and I expect I can get him then. Plus if he doesn't make the jump to the NHL right away I'd have wasted a first rounder when I could have taken someone pretty solid.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

I would imagine Hughes will be overall #1 fantasy pick from this draft, not sure I understand the question about risk. Good trade for you, you don't need depth, you need one more star and then you should be set.

I guess I just meant the risk of taking a rookie vs. someone already in their prime. But I feel like Hughes is expected to go to the NHL right away. Is that a good assumption?

[PenguinHunter]

Nope. I would not take Hughes... in a keep 6, I would not be taking the top rookie unless it is a generation talent like McDavid...

I would take the best player available in hopes to win the league!

[MZac]

Nope. I would not take Hughes... in a keep 6, I would not be taking the top rookie unless it is a generation talent like McDavid...

I would take the best player available in hopes to win the league!

This is my thoughts as well. What if Hughes makes the NHL next season and scores 50ish points? Then the years after he looks like Mackinnon in his first few seasons on a bad team? He's not keeper on a good team in a keep 6 if that happens.

I honestly don't really like the trade for you giving up way too much depth next season to worry about keepers two seasons from now. You have great keepers already, what you need next season to win is depth.

Edit: you could get lucky and Hughes could burst onto the scene like mcdavid did but that's unlikely.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Nope. I would not take Hughes... in a keep 6, I would not be taking the top rookie unless it is a generation talent like McDavid...

I would take the best player available in hopes to win the league!

That's another thing too - I'm consistently near or at the top of the league, so it's not like I can draft a rookie and wait a few years for him to join the NHL. But honestly as much as I don't follow prospects super closely, it seems like he's being talked about as a super-rookie, which is why I was considering him. Normally top rookies don't get drafted in our first round, but I'm thinking of making an exception.

[PenguinHunter]

That's another thing too - I'm consistently near or at the top of the league, so it's not like I can draft a rookie and wait a few years for him to join the NHL. But honestly as much as I don't follow prospects super closely, it seems like he's being talked about as a super-rookie, which is why I was considering him. Normally top rookies don't get drafted in our first round, but I'm thinking of making an exception.

This is like the chicken and the egg scenario.

Its not that you can't draft a top rookie and wait a few years because you are at the top of the league.

Rather you are at the top of the league because you don't draft a top rookie and wait a few years.

This is a KEEP 6 league not a dynasty league... so rookies are not as important as in other leagues.

Lets use the real NHL (which is a true 'dynasty' league)... yes, there are lots of teams that would want Jack Hughes at #1 overall, and that makes sense because they can hold him and wait.

Now, lets pretend that in July every year, each NHL team can only keep 6 players... there is gonna be some solid talent available in the draft, i doubt Jack Hughes gets drafted first overall.

And remember, the NHL has 31 teams, your league has 12 teams...so the talent available in the draft is gonna be amazing. Take your team for example, there are players you are going to have to drop (Klingberg, Krug, Debrincat, Tarasenko, Forsberg) that are all players I would feel safe taking over Hughes to ensure I am a top team again.

Sure... Hughes might outscore all of these players... but he also might only play 9 games and get sent down next year. All of these players you have a pretty good idea of what you are getting, and it is a conservative approach. But you have built a team of 6 keepers that allows you to be conservative with your draft picks.

[SergeP]

Hughes has the potential to be a very high end player but I'd be extremely surprised if he outscored any of your current keepers in year 1 of his career. Hell I'd be surprised if he did it in year 2 as well.

If you look at the top young scorers in the league today, not a single one of them hit 70 points in the NHL season immediately following their draft year (though McDavid would have done it if not for his injury). Hughes could absolutely be a 100 point player one day but he's likely to be a 60-70 ish point guy for at least 2-3 seasons before that. In a keep 6 I'd let someone else burn a keeper on him for those seasons and go with proven talent.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Darn it, now it's tougher to decide! Haha. There's one guy who drafted McDavid, Matthews, Laine, etc. in our first year and it worked out great for him, but I know those kind of rookies only come around once in a while. If there is someone who is available first overall who I can't resist I might take them over Hughes, but honestly even if he takes a couple years to get rolling it might be okay. That's essentially what I did with Eichel...

[lucafen4]

Darn it, now it's tougher to decide! Haha. There's one guy who drafted McDavid, Matthews, Laine, etc. in our first year and it worked out great for him, but I know those kind of rookies only come around once in a while. If there is someone who is available first overall who I can't resist I might take them over Hughes, but honestly even if he takes a couple years to get rolling it might be okay. That's essentially what I did with Eichel...

that guy had a 2-3 year plan to build and dominate with those kids. He held no expectations to win in year one or even year two. Even Eichel has taken 4 years to become an 80+pt player and he was said to be better than Matthews and very close to McDavid.

Hughes is smaller 5'10" I'd expect somewhat of a similar timeline for him as Eichel production wise. A 65pt rookie season would be nothing to scoff at - at 18 - But in a Keep 6 - it would be risky keeping him into his sophomore season.

As far as Kakko goes... see Laine - I think his shot is a notch down, slightly less of a goal scorer, but will provide more balance with more assists.

[stevegamer]

I don't think there's anyway I take a rookie 1st in a keep 6. You could probably pair that pick with Seguin for a player of the type you want.

[PenguinHunter]

that guy had a 2-3 year plan to build and dominate with those kids. He held no expectations to win in year one or even year two. Even Eichel has taken 4 years to become an 80+pt player and he was said to be better than Matthews and very close to McDavid.

Hughes is smaller 5'10" I'd expect somewhat of a similar timeline for him as Eichel production wise. A 65pt rookie season would be nothing to scoff at - at 18 - But in a Keep 6 - it would be risky keeping him into his sophomore season.

Yup, you can plan to 'rebuild' in any league and stack up like that guy. But you take yourself out of the running for 2-3 years. I have been in a keep 6 league for 10+ yeas and have never had to 'rebuild' and have made playoffs in 9 years and won the league a couple times. 5 finals appearances. You should be able to be competitive every year in a keep 6. Just 'rebuild' on the go.


As far as Kakko goes... see Laine - I think his shot is a notch down, slightly less of a goal scorer, but will provide more balance with more assists.

Yup, you can plan to 'rebuild' in any league and stack up like that guy. But you take yourself out of the running for 2-3 years. I have been in a keep 6 league for 10+ yeas and have never had to 'rebuild' and have made playoffs in 9 years and won the league a couple times. 5 finals appearances. You should be able to be competitive every year in a keep 6. Just 'rebuild' on the go.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think there's anyway I take a rookie 1st in a keep 6. You could probably pair that pick with Seguin for a player of the type you want.

Yup exactly... i think the lawyers have presented their case... now its just time for the jury to make the decision.

[Rockies & Hockeys]

Thanks guys! GREAT to get these perspectives I hadn't thought of. There's a long time until the decision needs to be made, but I will definitely look at something like packaging Seguin, Klingberg, Huberdeau et al. and the 1st for a great keeper upgrade. Heck, maybe I'll still get Hughes with my late first rounder!