Kuemper or Mrazek?

[The Maritimer]

Hey guys,

Between Kuemper and Mrazek who would you prefer as a potential long-term hold?!


Thanks!

[Moses]

Mrazek. I think he takes the reins in Detroit. Kuemper is locked into being the Wild's back up for many years to come.

[The Maritimer]

Mrazek. I think he takes the reins in Detroit. Kuemper is locked into being the Wild's back up for many years to come.

Ummm... this is a joke, right?

[als_revenge]

a long-term hold in a one-year league?

i'd probably go keumper given raanta's long-term injury.

[The Maritimer]

a long-term hold in a one-year league?

i'd probably go keumper given raanta's long-term injury.

Yeah sorry... by long-term I'm talking the remainder of the season. Lol

[Moses]

Ummm... this is a joke, right?

No. /deadpan/

[Dover]

I think Mrazek is the one who will give you the more for the rest of the season

[The Maritimer]

Mrazek. I think he takes the reins in Detroit. Kuemper is locked into being the Wild's back up for many years to come.

Mrazek is on Carolina now and Kuemper is on Arizona...

[red36]

Flashy choice is Mrazek. He has potential. Some believe starter upside.

Safe choice is Kuemper. Statistically speaking, Hill is playing out of his league. With Raanta out for the ?year? Kuemper has a very good chance at taking a 60/40 or even 70/30 split. Longterm backup.

Personally I think Mrazek is out of chances. He couldn’t take it from Howard and he cant take it from Darling? I’ve given up. I’ll take one solid season from Kuemper on a growing Coyotes squad. Raanta is injury prone so in deep pools Kuemper could be a good own long term too.

[Pengwin7]

Personally I think Mrazek is out of chances.
He couldn’t take it from Howard and he cant take it from Darling?

Mrazek DID, in fact, take the starting job from Jimmy Howard...
He outplayed Howard considerably in the 2015-2016 season, stats here.
But... that team DID still have Datsyuk & Zetterberg, who both contributed a lot to Detroit's overall DEFENSE.

In 2016-2017, with Datsyuk retired, the rumour is that Mrazek was the annointed #1 and starting really griping about the Detroit defense in front of him.
With the team heading towards a rebuild, Detroit wanted the better lockerroom presence and had no issue with taking a small step back to Howard - who re-emerged, always the more Osgood-ian goalie anyways.

Mrazek - honestly, is NOT a good goalie when he feels like the defense in front of him is letting him down.
He's hot-headed & volatile. Some teams can deal with this, some cannot.

But he was very solid as an OHL goalie & AHL goalie, he won about 2 games for every 1 he lost in those leagues, with a SV% consistently around .920 or better.
He also won a calder cup (AHL championship with the Griffins in either 2013 or 2014 or 2015, can't remember).
Of course, again, this is a thing with Mrazek - he's just fine on GOOD teams... and loses his shit on bad teams.

For goalies, it can be VERY difficult to play behind new defenses.
Every defenseman moves a bit differently (in front of the goalies eyes), even the way the forwards move/play is an adjustment.
It is really truely the ELITE goalies who can switch teams without a blip.
Like Mrazek, Darling struggled with switching to a new team as well.
And..

Neither Mrazek or Kuemper is solid, in truth.
And both are hard to grade because of their recent team switching.

Goalie SV% is down in general.
It was has gone from .915 to .913 to .912 to... (get ready for it)... .907sv% THIS YEAR.

So - just remember that almost ALL goalies (on average) have a falling SV%.

Kuemper's numbers aren't reallly great either.
He had a good 2013-2014 behind a solid Wild defensive system (younger Suter & Parise & co).
He had a good 2017-2018 behind a solid LA defensive system (think they were leading shot-differential team last year or year previous).

These are both sort of Tier III or IV guys.
Those type of guys will not fit on many teams... and still will fit (I believe) on some teams.

The benefit for Carolina is that they are the top shot-differential team in the NHL.
This means that the goalie can be "average" and the team can still win.

But Arizona is just and average shot-differential team.
Which means... if the goalie is just "average"... they might win some, might lose some.
Their shooters are also not exceptional, so I'd say the qualityxquantity of their shots is inferior to other teams.

And that's the difference here. The team.
This, IMO, the team... is why Mrazek is the better choice.

[The Maritimer]

Mrazek DID, in fact, take the starting job from Jimmy Howard...
He outplayed Howard considerably in the 2015-2016 season, stats here.
But... that team DID still have Datsyuk & Zetterberg, who both contributed a lot to Detroit's overall DEFENSE.

In 2016-2017, with Datsyuk retired, the rumour is that Mrazek was the annointed #1 and starting really griping about the Detroit defense in front of him.
With the team heading towards a rebuild, Detroit wanted the better lockerroom presence and had no issue with taking a small step back to Howard - who re-emerged, always the more Osgood-ian goalie anyways.

Mrazek - honestly, is NOT a good goalie when he feels like the defense in front of him is letting him down.
He's hot-headed & volatile. Some teams can deal with this, some cannot.

But he was very solid as an OHL goalie & AHL goalie, he won about 2 games for every 1 he lost in those leagues, with a SV% consistently around .920 or better.
He also won a calder cup (AHL championship with the Griffins in either 2013 or 2014 or 2015, can't remember).
Of course, again, this is a thing with Mrazek - he's just fine on GOOD teams... and loses his shit on bad teams.

For goalies, it can be VERY difficult to play behind new defenses.
Every defenseman moves a bit differently (in front of the goalies eyes), even the way the forwards move/play is an adjustment.
It is really truely the ELITE goalies who can switch teams without a blip.
Like Mrazek, Darling struggled with switching to a new team as well.
And..

Neither Mrazek or Kuemper is solid, in truth.
And both are hard to grade because of their recent team switching.

Goalie SV% is down in general.
It was has gone from .915 to .913 to .912 to... (get ready for it)... .907sv% THIS YEAR.

So - just remember that almost ALL goalies (on average) have a falling SV%.

Kuemper's numbers aren't reallly great either.
He had a good 2013-2014 behind a solid Wild defensive system (younger Suter & Parise & co).
He had a good 2017-2018 behind a solid LA defensive system (think they were leading shot-differential team last year or year previous).

These are both sort of Tier III or IV guys.
Those type of guys will not fit on many teams... and still will fit (I believe) on some teams.

The benefit for Carolina is that they are the top shot-differential team in the NHL.
This means that the goalie can be "average" and the team can still win.

But Arizona is just and average shot-differential team.
Which means... if the goalie is just "average"... they might win some, might lose some.
Their shooters are also not exceptional, so I'd say the qualityxquantity of their shots is inferior to other teams.

And that's the difference here. The team.
This, IMO, the team... is why Mrazek is the better choice.

Fantastic analysis and advice Penguin. Thank you so much! I'd give reps, but apparently I've given you too much already... Lol

[als_revenge]

Mrazek DID, in fact, take the starting job from Jimmy Howard...
He outplayed Howard considerably in the 2015-2016 season, stats here.
But... that team DID still have Datsyuk & Zetterberg, who both contributed a lot to Detroit's overall DEFENSE.

In 2016-2017, with Datsyuk retired, the rumour is that Mrazek was the annointed #1 and starting really griping about the Detroit defense in front of him.
With the team heading towards a rebuild, Detroit wanted the better lockerroom presence and had no issue with taking a small step back to Howard - who re-emerged, always the more Osgood-ian goalie anyways.

Mrazek - honestly, is NOT a good goalie when he feels like the defense in front of him is letting him down.
He's hot-headed & volatile. Some teams can deal with this, some cannot.

But he was very solid as an OHL goalie & AHL goalie, he won about 2 games for every 1 he lost in those leagues, with a SV% consistently around .920 or better.
He also won a calder cup (AHL championship with the Griffins in either 2013 or 2014 or 2015, can't remember).
Of course, again, this is a thing with Mrazek - he's just fine on GOOD teams... and loses his shit on bad teams.

For goalies, it can be VERY difficult to play behind new defenses.
Every defenseman moves a bit differently (in front of the goalies eyes), even the way the forwards move/play is an adjustment.
It is really truely the ELITE goalies who can switch teams without a blip.
Like Mrazek, Darling struggled with switching to a new team as well.
And..

Neither Mrazek or Kuemper is solid, in truth.

And both are hard to grade because of their recent team switching.
Goalie SV% is down in general.
It was has gone from .915 to .913 to .912 to... (get ready for it)... .907sv% THIS YEAR.

So - just remember that almost ALL goalies (on average) have a falling SV%.

Kuemper's numbers aren't reallly great either.
He had a good 2013-2014 behind a solid Wild defensive system (younger Suter & Parise & co).
He had a good 2017-2018 behind a solid LA defensive system (think they were leading shot-differential team last year or year previous).

These are both sort of Tier III or IV guys.
Those type of guys will not fit on many teams... and still will fit (I believe) on some teams.

The benefit for Carolina is that they are the top shot-differential team in the NHL.
This means that the goalie can be "average" and the team can still win.

But Arizona is just and average shot-differential team.
Which means... if the goalie is just "average"... they might win some, might lose some.
Their shooters are also not exceptional, so I'd say the qualityxquantity of their shots is inferior to other teams.

And that's the difference here. The team.
This, IMO, the team... is why Mrazek is the better choice.

Great analysis, but IMHO, it falls apart at the conclusion.

The scoring for the OP is: GA (-1), SV (0.25), SHO (5), W (5). Right now, Arizona and Carolina are tied in wins at 14. And they are virtually tied in goals against (Arizona: 33GP, 92 Goals Against; Carolina: 32GP, 93 Goals Against). Arizona as a team has more than 100 shots against, and a much better save percentage. After nearly half a season, there is nothing in the data that suggests to me that Mrazek is going to win more games based on shot differential. And he may lose the creaee as soon as McElhinney is healthy. Keumper is more likely to hold the crease versus Adin Hill, IMO. The only way your analysis makes sense to me is if you think Carolina is going to start scoring more goals, and hence winning more games, but unless they make a trade or shake things up, I'm not sure I see that. And even if it happens, McElhinney could be the one who benefits most...

[red36]

Mrazek DID, in fact, take the starting job from Jimmy Howard...
He outplayed Howard considerably in the 2015-2016 season, stats here.
But... that team DID still have Datsyuk & Zetterberg

Sorry I’ll correct my statement from Mrazek couldn’t take it from Howard to, Mrazek was successful at becoming a 1A goalie for 54gp, but then despite major injuries to Howard gave it right back the next season and quickly ran his mouth enough that Detroit gave him away for a 3rd round pick. If anyone was to believe in him, it’s Detroit and they gave him away for a package they knew would statistically not become more than a depth piece at best.

Kuemper predicts for 25-40 starts for the rest of the year. Due to Raanta’s health, he should stay in the 20-30gp range as long as he stays in Arizona. 40 might be dreamy but Hill should fall and if he gets hurt, Kuemper will start pretty much every game.

Mrazek predicts for 5-25 starts for the rest of the year barring major injuries. 25, like 40 above, is dreamy. McElhinney is clearly playing the best hockey and should get an extended look soon. Darling has the contract so they might give him another go after he finds his feet in the AHL (assuming he isn’t back up before then). Mrazek has a bad attitude and is a UFA. I see low insensitive to give him the reins unless he commands it and with a sub .900 in his past 30gp, I think the NHL will give up on him soon. Russia by next season, year after that at latest. GMs DO NOT sign hot heads to be backups and he clearly isn’t a starter if he can’t beat out and MAINTAIN a starting role against honestly, some of the weakest starting options in the NHL. We can pave all the excuses we want as to why he isn’t succeeding but GMs don’t care, they need results and if they aren’t getting them, a different goalie will get the chance.

I’m just realizing this is a one year league which makes things a lot easier IMO. CAR has 3 goalies and there is gonna be a lot of back and forth. Arizona has one goalie and Hill who before being called up, clearly needed more AHL development. Don’t let 9gp trick you, statistically he will fall off.

My only question is, is this a weekly or daily pool? In weekly, Kuemper 10/10 because you will never get the faith to start Mrazek over Helle or Allen. 4gp weeks he sometimes gets 0, upside is 2 most of the time, the other guys get 3. Kuemper will get 2-3 every time.

In daily it gets a little different. I’d still go Kuemper because of the pure amount of starts. He might not win as many as he should but his raw points will still be dramatically higher. Mrazek could be good for spot starts but I still don’t think he can steal a 50% control of the crease even. You’d potentially be further off using the roster spot for stream adds since you do have unlimited claims. That is a lot more work but then you get to pick and choose a lot more carefully.

Also, what are you gonna do when Helle or Allen get hurt? Then the security of Kuemper will make you really happy you picked him. Team statistics do nothing for a goalie on the bench. In 1 year pools, security over upside for goalies. Mrazek may very well become a future 30-50 start goalie on a yearly bases, but this season he is very hard pressed to do it. I’m not a Kuemper believer but from a 50gp standpoint, Kuemper should be an alright own.

[Moses]

Mrazek is on Carolina now and Kuemper is on Arizona...

LOL

I was starting to type a diatribe about how the expectations have changed dramatically, flip-flopping then flop-flipping, over the past 24-36 months for both goalies. Multiple teams, multiple roles. I was going to illustrate the point that "long-term", it is so hard to have any clue where either of these players will be a month, 3 months or a year from now. Then something came up and I hit send long before I finished.

....

I think that Mrazek is probably the better goalie, or at least has the highest ceiling. Kuemper, due to Raanta's injury, has a good chance of playing more games than Mrazek this year. Having read through these great responses I guess the one question that I was wondering as well was, "Is this weekly or daily goalie starts?".

Both goalies have to be a tough own (replaceable) in a weekly start 2 goalie format and would only ever get the call if one of Hellebuyck or Allen get hurt, AND Carter Hart is in the AHL. If that is the case then it doesn't really matter which one you have as the will only be used in case of emergency and will probably be replaced by someone else you grab before you ever use them.

If this is a daily starts league I'd be looking at the team in front of them: Arizona and Carolina have almost mirror image team W-L and GF-GA stats this year. Both goalies backstop teams that don't score and don't give up many goals. Coin flip. Not much difference here. Both teams have 3 goalies sniffing around the crease (ARI: Kuemper/Pickard/Hill. CAR: Mrazek, Darling, McElhinney) so usage and TOI of both Kuemper and Mrazek *could* be similar. Again, another coin flip. Do you see Arizona being the better second-half team, or do you think it will be Carolina?
....

In a one year setting, I think that you go with your gut here. Or put up a poll and let forum members vote with their gut. Or flip a coin.

[Axeman33]

Is there a 3rd option?