Pettersson for Chabot

[finnys_fanatsy]

To be fair, he did also follow that up with - "he's a d man VS a forward which is tougher to predict year to year, too many secondary assists, due for negative regression etc."

Which are all true points. I think the point MZac was getting at is, they both have small sample sizes, but young Dmen outputs (usually) vary a lot more than young forwards and he'd buy buying high on Chabot in this case.

i agree with teh bolded..but do i care if his secondary assists are his thing..no..at least my fantasy score doesnt penalize for secondary pr primary assists. not sure why this is a thing? doesnt take away form his skill or "hockey IQ"

[MZac]

To be fair, he did also follow that up with - "he's a d man VS a forward which is tougher to predict year to year, too many secondary assists, due for negative regression etc."

Which are all true points. I think the point MZac was getting at is, they both have small sample sizes, but young Dmen outputs (usually) vary a lot more than young forwards and he'd buy buying high on Chabot in this case.

This was exactly my point. I believe in Pettersson continuing his current output more than Chabot simply because of their positions. Which one is the better offensive player is certainly debatable and the sample size on both is small, but I still lean heavily towards Pettersson being the better fantasy own than Chabot in the short and long run. If moving Pettersson I'd aim for a more proven player, someone like Jones, Hedman, Klingberg.

[Ryan9]

Pettersson > Chabot for the foreseeable future. You have a good situation with your C. Three high end C’s isn’t a bad problem and I wouldn’t trade Petey right now unless you hit a homerun in the deal.

[MZac]

and petterssons sample size isnt small? lol..

do i make this trade.. no but to continue to say stuff like "Chabots production isn't sustainable" or " the sample size is too small" is getting to be a bit annoying to be honest. have you even seen him play? the kid is silky smooth, and his production isnt dropping off like was expected.

Pick and choose a small portion of my quote to slam it, then agree with me anyway? Ok.. As you put it.. lol..

How about Defensemen are less predictable year to year than forwards? How about there is 1 D man and 4 forwards on most PP1's and it's harder for D men to hold that spot or get into it in the first place? How about secondary assists can be a real indicator that regression is coming and Chabot has a ton of them?

I get why the OP is trying to move a centre and balance his team/keepers going forward. But he can do better and get more a 'sure thing' than Chabot. If no ones willing to give him more I stand by keeping Pettersson, and I don't think it's close.

[Kofax]

do i make this trade.. no but to continue to say stuff like "Chabots production isn't sustainable" or " the sample size is too small" is getting to be a bit annoying to be honest. have you even seen him play? the kid is silky smooth, and his production isnt dropping off like was expected.

Check out his S%s. His personal of 9.4% for a D-man is high; you don't see many D up there. But he has managed it for 90+ games so far, so maybe that's a thing. 5on5 S% though at 13.4%, that is astronomic for anyone, let alone a defenseman. That will fall significantly somewhere between 8-10, which will result in a big decrease in the production we're seeing this year. I don't care how good he is, he's not maintaining 13.4% shooting at 5on5.

i agree with teh bolded..but do i care if his secondary assists are his thing..no..at least my fantasy score doesnt penalize for secondary pr primary assists. not sure why this is a thing? doesnt take away form his skill or "hockey IQ"

Secondary assists have more of a luck component associated with them as they tend to be further back in the play from the actual goal, while primary assists tend to be a better indicator of actual play-making skill. Combine that with the above point of a very high 5on5 S% and it is a sign of increased luck. Teams will also begin to gameplan around him more in an attempt to further limit his chances.

Now I am not saying he isn't a very good player, because he is, I'm more pointing out the reasons behind everyone preaching about a regression. It will come. But from the positive side, he has increased his shot production to a pace of 220 this year, great from the back-end, and is doing this while having about equal offensive vs defensive zone deployment. If I were to take a shot at correcting for his apparent luck this season, I'd peg him at about a 50 point pace. That's still amazing for a defenceman in his second season.

To the OPs original question; Pettersson is similarly facing regression. He's sitting at 28% and 13.2%, which will come crashing back as well. It's harder to know where he'll settle though. I would figure he should be closer to 10G, 12A for 22 points in 27 games, a 65 ponit pace. Great for a first year pro. P7 also brings up a great point with D holding extra value in a 6F vs 4D league. There is equal indication of each player being high-end at their positions, so there is merit in making this deal. For some reason though, Pettersson seems to be more highly hyped than Chabot, so you may be able to extract more value here than a straight 1 for 1 swap.

[Pengwin7]

^Good points on shooting %. For sure, it's high right now. But it's not a huge hit to overall scoring.
I'd expect he'll settle in around 7%-8%. He has Brent Burns heavy-shot and an ability to join the rush too.
The closer-in ranged shots are going to be closer to 10% in scoring - what most forwards end up around.

Most D-men that primarily bomb shots from the point (Ghost, Chara, etc.) are going to be about 6%.


But, the major consideration here is the roster allocation: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D with 14-teams.
And somebody MUST to the calculation at what a waiver-wire player is... that's the only way you can establish "relative value".

This is NOT simply Pettersson vs. Chabot (because Pettersson wins that, easily).

This is 2-for-2.
Pettersson + his current D4
vs.
Scheifele + Chabot

I mean... what wins THAT?
Easy, right?

But, do the count OP:
What did the 28th NHL center score last year in points?
What did the 28th NHL LW score last year, in points?
What did the 28th NHL RW score last year, in points?
What did the 56th NHL D score last year, in points?

Those are your "benchmarks".
Then you compare a player's projected future every-year scoring to those benchmarks to establish "relative value".

Now, this league has a bunch of other point-based scoring for extra things like HIT & BLK (where Chabot helps even more!).
So there's a deep calculation here.

But I'd simply pick something very reasonable for Chabot (55pts + periphs) vs. Pettersson (75pts + periphs) and compare to #56D and #28C.
THAT is how you determine who is better.

Ultimately, the smarter option MIGHT be to also explore flipping Matthews for a HUGE DorW upgrade... or Scheifele...
But those guys are established... and if a team is loving Pettersson, then that's probably your best return - and Chabot IS a huge haul.
He's no PP-centric Ghost or Werenski. He's for real - your eyes aren't fooling you. He's a 50-60pt #1 D-man for Ottawa going forward... with great peripherals.

[MZac]

^Good points on shooting %. For sure, it's high right now. But it's not a huge hit to overall scoring.
I'd expect he'll settle in around 7%-8%. He has Brent Burns heavy-shot and an ability to join the rush too.
The closer-in ranged shots are going to be closer to 10% in scoring - what most forwards end up around.

Most D-men that primarily bomb shots from the point (Ghost, Chara, etc.) are going to be about 6%.


But, the major consideration here is the roster allocation: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D with 14-teams.
And somebody MUST to the calculation at what a waiver-wire player is... that's the only way you can establish "relative value".

This is NOT simply Pettersson vs. Chabot (because Pettersson wins that, easily).

This is 2-for-2.
Pettersson + his current D4
vs.
Scheifele + Chabot

I mean... what wins THAT?
Easy, right?

But, do the count OP:
What did the 28th NHL center score last year in points?
What did the 28th NHL LW score last year, in points?
What did the 28th NHL RW score last year, in points?
What did the 56th NHL D score last year, in points?

Those are your "benchmarks".
Then you compare a player's projected future every-year scoring to those benchmarks to establish "relative value".

Now, this league has a bunch of other point-based scoring for extra things like HIT & BLK (where Chabot helps even more!).
So there's a deep calculation here.

But I'd simply pick something very reasonable for Chabot (55pts + periphs) vs. Pettersson (75pts + periphs) and compare to #56D and #28C.
THAT is how you determine who is better.

Ultimately, the smarter option MIGHT be to also explore flipping Matthews for a HUGE DorW upgrade... or Scheifele...
But those guys are established... and if a team is loving Pettersson, then that's probably your best return - and Chabot IS a huge haul.
He's no PP-centric Ghost or Werenski. He's for real - your eyes aren't fooling you. He's a 50-60pt #1 D-man for Ottawa going forward... with great peripherals.

Great post. And I agree that there's alot more to it than just petterson VS Chabot.

[finnys_fanatsy]

Pick and choose a small portion of my quote to slam it, then agree with me anyway? Ok.. As you put it.. lol..

I specifically didn't quote your entire first post so as to not make it look like I was targeting your responses.. and I should have said something in my response. I've been seeing alot of posts about Chabot and how his sample size was small and his secondary assists and the regression that's coming yadda yadda yadda..I just had to get it out..

So I was venting.

To finalize my thoughts here before I dig a deeper hole and look more like a fanboy...I dont make the trade although P7 has really good points too that make it closer for sure.

[MZac]

I specifically didn't quote your entire first post so as to not make it look like I was targeting your responses.. and I should have said something in my response. I've been seeing alot ot piets about Chabot and how his sample size was small and his secondary assists and the regression that's coming yadda yadda yadda..I just had to get it out..

So I was venting.

To finalize my thoughts here before I dig a deeper hole and look more like a fanboy...I dont make the trade although P7 has really good points too that make it closer for sure.

All good and I probably over reacted with my response. Apologies.

I think Chabot is a really good player and agree p7 had an excellent post and made it closer for me as well, closer than I thought possible on the surface.

[Kylegary Flames]

Ultimately, the smarter option MIGHT be to also explore flipping Matthews for a HUGE DorW upgrade... or Scheifele...
But those guys are established... and if a team is loving Pettersson, then that's probably your best return - and Chabot IS a huge haul.
He's no PP-centric Ghost or Werenski. He's for real - your eyes aren't fooling you. He's a 50-60pt #1 D-man for Ottawa going forward... with great peripherals.

Wow, great post. Thanks for the new perspective.

[snowball]

You obviously need a positioning swap, 3 C is too much to keep.

shop Matthews Scheifele & Pettersson and see what return you get for any of them.

IMO, Chabot is a good trade, BUT you could always get a more proven player. I am thinking Hedman, Karlsson, Gost, Doughty,Jones. Pretty sure these players are available if you shop around with Matthews & Scheifele.

Matthews: seems to be injury prone
Scheifele: awesome PTS guy, but peripherals are lower, which makes him less valuable overall
Pettersson: can be a Barzal (low peripherals) or explode as the next Kuch? still unknown

Either way, if you can swap 1 of these 3 C for a D or Winger, you have a better core already.

[Kylegary Flames]

UPDATE: bit of a tangent from the original post...I've been offered Ovy for Scheifele.

This would make room for Pettersson and give me an even better chance to win this year. On the other hand, I love having Scheifele.

[Cpedersen84]

Take Ovi in a heartbeat. The best move here is to trade Scheifele over Pettersson.