CAGE MATCH TOURNAMENT #1 - "new normal" for young players

[RizzeeDizzee]

It's that time of year again. With days shorter and colder, and winter set to officially begin ever so soon, that also means Winter Cage Matches are upon us! I’m sticking with last season's exact formula which means three tournaments focusing on the “new normal” concept, which covers players who have apparently entered a next chapter of their career - one in which they're either doing much better (this week and next) or much worse (week three) than what was expected of them going into this season.

For our first tournament this week, the focus is on players age 24 or younger who’ve exceeded preseason scoring predictions and appear as if they’re on course for a “new normal” level of higher production. Your job is to decide, via your votes, whether what we’re seeing from these players (as well as those in next week and week three’s tournaments) is indeed their "new normal," in which case they should get your vote, or instead merely a blip in their production radar, in which case you should not vote for them.

You can go ahead and vote on this week's tournament now, but you might want to wait until the column is published on Wednesday (I'll link to it here when it's live) to read the full list of rules, exclusions, and other explanations. But in short, there are no goalies, no players with under 50 NHL games prior to this season, no forwards who've scored 75+ points (or at a 75+ point full season pace) in a prior season or defensemen who'd posted 50+ points (or at a 50+ points full season pace) at least once previously. And all forward choices must have a "new normal" pace of 60+ points and all defensemen a 45+ point pace. Note that I use the word pace on purpose, since we're talking about the scoring pace for these players, not whether they actually get that many points, since some will miss games due to injury, etc.

As for voting, in the poll, you'll see a player and a "new normal" scoring pace after his name. Again, if you think a player will maintain at least that scoring pace for the rest of 2018-19 and the next few seasons (i.e., this will be his "new normal") then you should vote for him. They key in the previous sentence is your vote should be decided based not just on whether he can achieve this scoring rate for 2018-19, but for future seasons as well.

You can vote for multiple players, so whomever you think will indeed maintain or improve upon his listed scoring pace, he/they should get your vote. I’ve also included a “none of the above” choice in case you think that none of the 19 choices is currently producing at his “new normal.”

Be sure to also post a comment here in the thread about who you voted for (or didn't vote for) and why, since the goal is for these tournaments to be as useful for fantasy insight as they are fun to participate in.

[2014olympicgold]

I voted for Chabot, PLD, Marner, and Point.

Tkachuk, Lindholm, Monahan are all linked together and dependant on scoring depth on that team. I’m 40% sure that they can make those paces, maybe closer to 30%.

[Kofax]

New Normal is tough here as I think most of these numbers are pretty high. I wouldn't expect this on a regular basis from almost any of these players, but there's a number of them who I think could do it again and/or at least be close to that number (likely a little lower) on a regular basis. They are as follows:

Tier 1 (most sustainable - these are who I voted for):
Aho - Other than about 63% O-zone starts, there's nothing to suggest he can't sustain this pace. I can see 80 being a new normal here.
Larkin - His 5on5 production is actually low, so he's one of the few where I can see it being a new normal.

Tier 2 - (close, but not quite)
Drouin - I'm less confident here, but he's very close to this number. I can see 70 being more sustainable.
Horvat - Again, about 5 points too high. S%s are a little up, so I like 65 as a better number. But he's doing it with 61% D-Zone starts!
Marner - 95 is too high, but I can see 85 being normal for him with the talent he's surrounded by.
Morrisey - He might be a Tier 1.5, as I could see 45 holding in a couple of years, but I am more comfortable with 40 for the time being.
Reinhart - S%s are just a tad elevated and significant offensive zone starts at 61%. I like 70 as a better number.
Severson - There isn't a lot that says he can't sustain it, but I am having a hard time feeling this one for some reason.

Tier 3 - (Too many red flags)
All of the rest belong in this group. From very high personal or 5 on 5 S%s or a combination of these plus other factors, there are just too many red flags to have any confidence that the remaining players can sustain the suggested paces. Some are better than others, but I would expect all of them to be at least 10+ points less than the projected pace.

[Canucks_fan18]

I only voted Morrisey all others seem a slight reach considering their pretty lofty numbers but a lot of them are close. For example Horvat is probably 60+ maybe even 65+ new norm but over 70 is tough. Look at Johansen after his brief stint in that territory.

[MasterByte]

Aho, Horvat, Lindholm for me!

I understand the concern of Lindholm's production being linked to his linemates, but I feel like Lindholm has always had this in him and just needed more ice time and complementary talent. My opinion at least.
Horvat is solid regardless of who he plays with, having time without injury with Boeser and Petterson on his wings all but solidifies it.
Aho --> finnish magic, and if Svechnikov turns into the scorer people think he will, Aho has nowhere to go but up

[IngeTheHammerStrom]

Meier was the one that jumped out for me. He is scoring at this pace mostly due to his 5X5 performance. Once he gets bumped to PP1, his numbers will be even better!

[hockeyrobot]

Crap I forgot Meier....he'd be on my list as well along with Aho, Larkin, Horvat and Dubois.

Most of these guys are great but not that great.

[lucafen4]

I voted for Chabot, PLD, Marner, and Point.

Tkachuk, Lindholm, Monahan are all linked together and dependant on scoring depth on that team. I’m 40% sure that they can make those paces, maybe closer to 30%.

i took these 4 with Tuch... and Horvat

[Must_Love_Pogs]

I think many of these players will eventually make these point totals/pace their "normals" but it won't become several of their standards for a few seasons in my opinion. I chose Kyle Connor, Brayden Point, Dylan Larkin, Mitch Marner, Timo Meier, and Alex Tuch. I believe that Aho, Drouin, Chabot and Dubois are all capable of these numbers but consistency won't come for a few years. Ottawa can't continue this style of play, it's exciting but a terrible option if you expect to ever win. when they start to tighten up defensively Chabot will struggle to keep even a 55 point pace. Dubois has the ability but with Panarin certainly leaving next year he will struggle to keep a similar pace. Aho and Drouin are both capable, but situationally with the players surrounding them it's just not going to be a likely scenario for a few years in my opinion.

That's why I believe most of the players I voted for can keep up their paces. Situation. Connor plays with either Laine or Wheeler and Schiefele and plays on the top power play. He could be carried to this point pace, though he's actually playing great on his own. Point plays with statistics that seem like he's going to fall off but never seems to so I've just finally bought in on him, plus great deployment/line mates. Dylan Larkin is just a good player with some surprising young talent around him and 75 points is the new 65 points so I believe in him. Mitch Marner is obscenely talented and gets to play with one of the most consistent goal scorers over the past 5 years and plays on the hottest power-play in the league, now that I look at it 95 is a bit much I would lean more toward 90 but I already wrote this much so I'm not deleting it. Timo Meier is a shooting machine playing with solid line mates and doesn't even have top power play time yet. His opportunity is only going to grow even if his luck metrics level out. Finally Tuch gets to play with Pacioretty and soon Stastny, just got a shiny new contract a lot of people said he didn't deserve and is seeing top power play time. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some more time next to Marchessault in the near future as well. Reilly Smith has hit his ceiling. Tuch is just getting started. I would expect, if not this year, the next Tuch will be seeing more time with that younger higher skilled center.

[gooding74]

I voted Dubois, Horvat, Larkin. I don't think those are massive leaps for any of those players. Almost went with Point as well, but think he'll come up slightly short.

[renello]

Domi is least loved. I own him in both my leagues and will ride him. With winger designation and face off wins. He is still a nice asset.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Bumping because this is one of the closest polls I've ever run - so be sure to vote so your voice is heard

[Axeman33]

PLD, Larkin and Point for me.