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Thread: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

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    Badfish's Avatar
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    Default Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    I've been offered Andrei Schvechnikov + Jacob Trouba for my Nylander.

    Am I crazy to deny this trade? Should I ask for a 1st round pick? Or should I straight up keep Nylander.

    I mean what if the kid solidifies his spot on Mathews wings and puts up a point per game with high end powerplay production??

    Note: My team is not contending this year but planning to go for it next year and beyond and I know, my goalies need help..
    18 GM Keep All + 5man NA - Head to Head
    G A P PPP HIT SOG GWG
    W SA% SO

    Roster
    E.Pettersson Van - F
    D.Pastrnak Bos - F
    W.Nylander Tor - F
    R.Rakell Anh - F
    C.White Ott - F
    A.Mantha Det - F
    T.Jost Col - F
    A.Galchenyuk Ari - F
    P.Zacha NJ - F
    R.Thomas StL - F
    A.Wennberg Cls - F
    T.Bertuzzi Det - F
    O.Kase Anh - F
    Burakovsky Was- F
    Perlini Chi - F

    V.Hedman TB - D
    R.Dahlin Buf - D
    S.Gostisbehere Phi - D
    J.Chychrun Ari - D
    E.Cernak TB - D
    L.Pilut Buf - D

    C.Schneider NJ - G
    A.Raanta Ari - G

    IR
    C.Dvorak Ari - F

    Minors
    H.Borgstrom FLA - F
    E.Brannstrom VGK - D
    A.Boqvist Chi - D
    C.Hart Phi - G
    T.Demko VAN - G

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Svech is more of a goal scorer than Nylander, and this is probably the offseason where Trouba's value spikes one way or another.
    I would take the deal (assuming you don't have to drop someone decent).

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Thanks Eskimo, sorry I updated my sig there. Yea I have Perlini and Burakovsky, I would likely drop one of them.
    18 GM Keep All + 5man NA - Head to Head
    G A P PPP HIT SOG GWG
    W SA% SO

    Roster
    E.Pettersson Van - F
    D.Pastrnak Bos - F
    W.Nylander Tor - F
    R.Rakell Anh - F
    C.White Ott - F
    A.Mantha Det - F
    T.Jost Col - F
    A.Galchenyuk Ari - F
    P.Zacha NJ - F
    R.Thomas StL - F
    A.Wennberg Cls - F
    T.Bertuzzi Det - F
    O.Kase Anh - F
    Burakovsky Was- F
    Perlini Chi - F

    V.Hedman TB - D
    R.Dahlin Buf - D
    S.Gostisbehere Phi - D
    J.Chychrun Ari - D
    E.Cernak TB - D
    L.Pilut Buf - D

    C.Schneider NJ - G
    A.Raanta Ari - G

    IR
    C.Dvorak Ari - F

    Minors
    H.Borgstrom FLA - F
    E.Brannstrom VGK - D
    A.Boqvist Chi - D
    C.Hart Phi - G
    T.Demko VAN - G

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    I'm keeping Nylander.

    Back to back 60 point seasons and he's only 22.
    You're hoping Svech can do that.

    Trouba is a nice add, but he still hasn't prove he can stay healthy and produce consistently.

    Basically do you gamble on Svech/Trouba or go with what you know in Nylander.
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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Quality over Quantity except when age is a HUGE factor.

    In your situation, age is not a HUGE factor so I am keeping Nylander and riding the coattails of Matthews.

    Svechnikov does not have a talent like Matthews and Tavares to play with. So Nylander is a pretty safe option that he will be playing with either of those guys for a long time and on a really good PP unit.

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Quote Originally Posted by evans334 View Post
    I'm keeping Nylander.

    Back to back 60 point seasons and he's only 22.
    You're hoping Svech can do that.

    Trouba is a nice add, but he still hasn't prove he can stay healthy and produce consistently.

    Basically do you gamble on Svech/Trouba or go with what you know in Nylander.
    This is what Ails me.. Schvechnikov hasn't quite shown me that he is a surefire high end scorer with grit yet. If he did I would be inclined but I'm not there yet..
    18 GM Keep All + 5man NA - Head to Head
    G A P PPP HIT SOG GWG
    W SA% SO

    Roster
    E.Pettersson Van - F
    D.Pastrnak Bos - F
    W.Nylander Tor - F
    R.Rakell Anh - F
    C.White Ott - F
    A.Mantha Det - F
    T.Jost Col - F
    A.Galchenyuk Ari - F
    P.Zacha NJ - F
    R.Thomas StL - F
    A.Wennberg Cls - F
    T.Bertuzzi Det - F
    O.Kase Anh - F
    Burakovsky Was- F
    Perlini Chi - F

    V.Hedman TB - D
    R.Dahlin Buf - D
    S.Gostisbehere Phi - D
    J.Chychrun Ari - D
    E.Cernak TB - D
    L.Pilut Buf - D

    C.Schneider NJ - G
    A.Raanta Ari - G

    IR
    C.Dvorak Ari - F

    Minors
    H.Borgstrom FLA - F
    E.Brannstrom VGK - D
    A.Boqvist Chi - D
    C.Hart Phi - G
    T.Demko VAN - G

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Do you fellas think swapping in Werenski for Trouba make the deal a no brainer ?
    18 GM Keep All + 5man NA - Head to Head
    G A P PPP HIT SOG GWG
    W SA% SO

    Roster
    E.Pettersson Van - F
    D.Pastrnak Bos - F
    W.Nylander Tor - F
    R.Rakell Anh - F
    C.White Ott - F
    A.Mantha Det - F
    T.Jost Col - F
    A.Galchenyuk Ari - F
    P.Zacha NJ - F
    R.Thomas StL - F
    A.Wennberg Cls - F
    T.Bertuzzi Det - F
    O.Kase Anh - F
    Burakovsky Was- F
    Perlini Chi - F

    V.Hedman TB - D
    R.Dahlin Buf - D
    S.Gostisbehere Phi - D
    J.Chychrun Ari - D
    E.Cernak TB - D
    L.Pilut Buf - D

    C.Schneider NJ - G
    A.Raanta Ari - G

    IR
    C.Dvorak Ari - F

    Minors
    H.Borgstrom FLA - F
    E.Brannstrom VGK - D
    A.Boqvist Chi - D
    C.Hart Phi - G
    T.Demko VAN - G

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Quote Originally Posted by Badfish View Post
    Do you fellas think swapping in Werenski for Trouba make the deal a no brainer ?
    It's a slightly better offer, IMO.

    Werenski is gonna be second fiddle to Jones and we've already seen the dip in his production.
    It's not like he was lights out either while Jones was hurt.

    I think you're selling low on Nylander honestly.
    His value won't go down after we see him play a couple games, if anything it will go up, and that could change a lot on your trade talks.

    Toronto is tied for second in the league for Goals For without out Nylander.
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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Love it, thanks for the reinforcement there homes.
    18 GM Keep All + 5man NA - Head to Head
    G A P PPP HIT SOG GWG
    W SA% SO

    Roster
    E.Pettersson Van - F
    D.Pastrnak Bos - F
    W.Nylander Tor - F
    R.Rakell Anh - F
    C.White Ott - F
    A.Mantha Det - F
    T.Jost Col - F
    A.Galchenyuk Ari - F
    P.Zacha NJ - F
    R.Thomas StL - F
    A.Wennberg Cls - F
    T.Bertuzzi Det - F
    O.Kase Anh - F
    Burakovsky Was- F
    Perlini Chi - F

    V.Hedman TB - D
    R.Dahlin Buf - D
    S.Gostisbehere Phi - D
    J.Chychrun Ari - D
    E.Cernak TB - D
    L.Pilut Buf - D

    C.Schneider NJ - G
    A.Raanta Ari - G

    IR
    C.Dvorak Ari - F

    Minors
    H.Borgstrom FLA - F
    E.Brannstrom VGK - D
    A.Boqvist Chi - D
    C.Hart Phi - G
    T.Demko VAN - G

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Quote Originally Posted by evans334 View Post
    I'm keeping Nylander.

    Back to back 60 point seasons and he's only 22.
    You're hoping Svech can do that.

    Trouba is a nice add, but he still hasn't prove he can stay healthy and produce consistently.

    Basically do you gamble on Svech/Trouba or go with what you know in Nylander.

    I would Keep Nylander as well. I see him as a 60-70 winger with a few 70-75 seasons.
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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    I would take this deal in a hot second, for a few reasons:

    1. You've stated that you're out of it this year. This is the year Trouba finally leaves Winnipeg (he's been trying to get out for 3+ years) and gets the #1 D gig somewhere, or if not this summer than the one following. That's going to massively boost his value. He also has good grit, which is big.

    G A P PPP HIT SOG GWG

    2. Svechnikov, if he hits his potential, will be considerably more valuable than Nylander. Those scoring cats are built for AS, and there's nothing that makes you think he falls short of the potential. It's true that he hasn't produced much, but he's only been getting 14 minutes a night and there's every reason to think he'll expand his role as the year goes.

    3. This scoring setup is not kind to Nylander. His hit rates are terrible, which really kicks you in the face in this scoring setup. His shot rates are modest for a winger, and his goal rates aren't great either. The Toronto Hype Machine creates the perception that he's more valuable than he is -- especially in this format.

    So if Nylander is a 60-70 point winger as others have posited in this thread, then his stat line should look something like this:

    80 GP, 25G, 45A, 70P, 25PPP, 25 hits, 200 SOG, 5 GWG

    I'd peg Svechnikov, as early as next year as:

    80 GP, 30G, 30A, 60P, 20PPP, 100 hits, 250 SOG, 5GWG -- you'd be giving up ~15A, 10P, 5PPP for 5 G, 75 hits, 50 SOG. That's any easy tradeoff.

    If Svechnikov hits his potential:

    80 GP, 40G, 40A, 80P, 30PPP, 150 hits, 300 SOG, 5 GWG -- that's massively tilted towards Svechnikov.

    And Trouba in Winnipeg as:

    80 GP, 8G, 32A, 40P, 5PPP, 150 hits, 150 SOG, 1 GWG

    Troube outside of Winnipeg as:

    80 GP, 10G, 40A, 50P, 20 PPP, 150 hits, 200 SOG, 2 GWG

    Both of those Trouba scenarios are material upgrades to your D. It's also an 18 team league where you keep the whole roster! In that kind of a setup, depth is more important than concentrating value into players. You want to have no weak links on your team... quality over quantity only applies when the bottom of your roster is quality, and yours is not.

    I think that overall the advice you've been given in this thread is based on perception of Nylander and nebulous scoring setups rather than looking at reasonable projections for the players and your specific format. You can tweak mine as you like, but overall you're being paid very handsomely for the tiny (if existent at all) step down from Nylander to Svechnikov. I do this deal all day every day.

    (relevant question that might change the answer here -- what are your starting positions and how often do you make roster changes? My analysis is loosely based on the idea that you start all 15 forwards, 6 defense, and 2G with daily roster changes...)

    And edit again -- hard medicine here... your team is not ready to compete next year or the year after, unless you make some trades to take down the volatility. If anything your roster construction tilted towards potential means you should double down on that and make trades that address your scoring categories.

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Projections VS Production are exactly what make this a gamble, which is what I was trying to point out.

    Personally, I prefer going with something I know VS hoping that a player leaves a team or can fulfill his potential.

    Scoring is also always at a premium so regardless of the league setup, points and power play points are always hard to come by, and Nylander has shown he can do that.
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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Quote Originally Posted by evans334 View Post
    Projections VS Production are exactly what make this a gamble, which is what I was trying to point out.

    Personally, I prefer going with something I know VS hoping that a player leaves a team or can fulfill his potential.

    Scoring is also always at a premium so regardless of the league setup, points and power play points are always hard to come by, and Nylander has shown he can do that.
    This is a fair point, but Trouba on Winnipeg should hold similar value to the 60-70 point Nylander you described, at least in this scoring setup. Or Svechnikov + Trouba > Nylander + Burakovsky at the very least, based on their current proven production, in this scoring setup. In addition to that there's plenty of upside for both Svechnikov and Trouba that tilts this... I'm kinda floored that this isn't seen as a no-brainer for that side of the deal.

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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    Another in the keep Nylander camp.
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    Default Re: Am I too high on Nylander saying no to this trade?? Rep to the quality advice

    FHG raises some excellent points.

    One other point I will raise is this: How much do you trust Kyle Dubas?

    [Dubas said he wouldn't trade Nylander, but Willie will have an amazing contract come July 2nd and he'd be a very nice trade chip if the leafs have cap troubles or need to shore up their defence. How sexy is Nylander if he's not next to Matthews?]

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