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Thread: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

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    Default What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    Roster and full league details in my signature below.

    I just managed to pry D. Hamilton away from a rival GM in my league, and I'm wondering what people think the future holds for him, short and long term. Does he put up 45+ points this year? Is he someone worth considering for a keeper spot long term in my limited keeper league (keep 6)?
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    LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.

    ROSTER:

    C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
    LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
    RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
    D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
    G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)

    * = 2023 keepers

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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    I think he's going to have his usual breakout 2nd half, and that should answer most of your questions
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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    I think it's possible if he keeps his current shot output where it's at. He's on pace for 300+ shots and his S% is sitting at around only 3%, which is like 3% lower than his average. More goals, more assists off rebounds, more points for Dougie in the last 2/3rd's of the season!
    16 Team - Keep 5 - H2H Points
    Start: 2C/2LW/2RW/4D/2G - 4Bench
    G/A(1.25) STP(1.5) GWG(3) SOG(0.25) H(0.2) Blks(0.25) +/-(0.25) PIM(0.1) FOW(0.1)

    C: Malkin, Kopitar, Hartman, Johansen
    LW: Ovechkin, Pacioretty, Barbashev (C)
    RW: Rust, Mangiapane (LW), Rodrigues (LW)
    D: DeAngelo, Karlsson, Faulk, Morrisey, Myers
    G: A. Forsberg, Price, Reimer, Holtby

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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by saucelife90 View Post
    I think it's possible if he keeps his current shot output where it's at. He's on pace for 300+ shots and his S% is sitting at around only 3%, which is like 3% lower than his average. More goals, more assists off rebounds, more points for Dougie in the last 2/3rd's of the season!
    Yeah, the SOG volume was a big factor for me in pulling the trigger. My larger concern is about how he fits in on CAR... I used to see him a lot when he played for BOS, and pretty often when he played for CGY, but I just haven't seem him play a lot on this new CAR team.
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    LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.

    ROSTER:

    C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
    LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
    RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
    D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
    G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)

    * = 2023 keepers

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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by rooneypoo View Post
    Yeah, the SOG volume was a big factor for me in pulling the trigger. My larger concern is about how he fits in on CAR... I used to see him a lot when he played for BOS, and pretty often when he played for CGY, but I just haven't seem him play a lot on this new CAR team.
    I've seen him about 4 games in Carolina this year. Lots of shots; frustrating that Faulk gets PP priority over him.

    I think Carolina started hit but is coming back to earth. I'm a little worried about Dougie on the Canes. I didn't love him on Calgary either. Good player who seems to never got in ot be used properly...

    I see him with 40ish pts this year. Don't see that big breakout coming

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by HonkyTonkMan View Post
    I've seen him about 4 games in Carolina this year. Lots of shots; frustrating that Faulk gets PP priority over him.

    I think Carolina started hit but is coming back to earth. I'm a little worried about Dougie on the Canes. I didn't love him on Calgary either. Good player who seems to never got in ot be used properly...

    I see him with 40ish pts this year. Don't see that big breakout coming

    *Seems to never FIT in OR be used properly

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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    Agree with others and hope that his SOG volume will translate to more points. On your team you have 3 potential Keeper D with Karlsson, Risto and Hamiltion. IMO you need to keep Karlsson so it your top 5 keepers are Ovechkin, Benn, Kucherov, Vasilevsky and Karlsson. If you keep Hamilton you would need to drop Tarasenko, Barkov or Ristolainen - so he will need to have a really big breakout in teh second half to consider this.
    Scooter
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    C - Hughes (C/LW), Mackinnon (C), Ek (C),
    LW - Stutzle (LW), Raymond (LW/RW), Joshua (C/LW)
    RW - Rantanen (RW), Giouroux (C/RW). Bjorkstrand (RW), Mantha (RW)
    D - Dahlin, Makar, Seider, L Hughes, Matheson, Faber
    G - Saros, Levi, Luukkonen
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    8 keepers, 5 bench, Weekly H2H league,
    11 cat's G,A,PPP,+/-,SOG,PIM,GWG,Hits & W,SV%,GAA
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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    I can't say I've seen Hamilton play much this year (just 2-3gp, incl. last night).

    Sometimes defenseman SOG can be a frustrating thing for a team.
    I think it got that way for Calgary.

    One mindset these days is "Shoot the puck!", "You can only score if you take shots", etc.
    But there is another mindset that a team can just try to move the puck around, keep possession, and look for a higher-% shot.

    Volume D-shooters aren't always great.
    As a Flyers fan, when Ghost's shots are going on it's like "Oh, another Ghost goal, alright!"
    But a lot of times he's ripping and missing, or it kicks out so wide that the other team clears the zone and then it's like "C'mon Ghost, why don't you make a pass over to G or Voracek?!"

    FWIW - it was this way in Calgary a bit last year too.
    Hamilton was VERY spotty.
    He put up only 16pts in his 39 Oct/Nov/Dec games.
    Then he put up 22pts in his 26 Jan/Feb games. And 7ppp in Feb... but only another 5ppp outside that month.

    He's a polarizing player.
    Carolina is up for possibly re-jigging things again... as they've hit a bit of a losing spell.

    Interesting Note on Carolina:
    Carolina LEADS the NHL with 38.8 shot on goal FOR, per game.
    Carolina LEADS the NHL with a +11.0 shot differential, per game.

    And...
    Carolina has lost 3 in a row.

    They are perhaps the ONE team in the NHL right now where a shot-surplus isn't equaling a victory.
    Either that's just "Bad Luck" or they need to figure out how to re-work their system.

    I do believe they'll find a best way to use Dougie.
    He's a 50pt player, he'll get there.
    Slow-start, just like last year.


    [Back-Patting Note: The two teams whose goalies are tried to "value-draft" in one-year leagues this year, Carolina & Florida, are #1 and #2 in shots on net FOR per game. They are also both top five teams at a +5 or more shot differential per game. Should translate to eventual wins... but I haven't raked it yet. Ugh.]

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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    Yeah, that's the gist of it. I've been trying to figure out for a while where Benn and Tarasenko fit into my keepers, and how they stack up with the other 54~ keepers in my league. I've felt like they were both no-brainers for a while, but it's becoming harder to justify thinking that way.
    -----------------

    LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.

    ROSTER:

    C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
    LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
    RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
    D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
    G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)

    * = 2023 keepers

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    Default Re: What Does the Future Hold for Hamilton?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pengwin7 View Post
    I can't say I've seen Hamilton play much this year (just 2-3gp, incl. last night).

    Sometimes defenseman SOG can be a frustrating thing for a team.
    I think it got that way for Calgary.

    One mindset these days is "Shoot the puck!", "You can only score if you take shots", etc.
    But there is another mindset that a team can just try to move the puck around, keep possession, and look for a higher-% shot.

    Volume D-shooters aren't always great.
    As a Flyers fan, when Ghost's shots are going on it's like "Oh, another Ghost goal, alright!"
    But a lot of times he's ripping and missing, or it kicks out so wide that the other team clears the zone and then it's like "C'mon Ghost, why don't you make a pass over to G or Voracek?!"

    FWIW - it was this way in Calgary a bit last year too.
    Hamilton was VERY spotty.
    He put up only 16pts in his 39 Oct/Nov/Dec games.
    Then he put up 22pts in his 26 Jan/Feb games. And 7ppp in Feb... but only another 5ppp outside that month.

    He's a polarizing player.
    Carolina is up for possibly re-jigging things again... as they've hit a bit of a losing spell.

    Interesting Note on Carolina:
    Carolina LEADS the NHL with 38.8 shot on goal FOR, per game.
    Carolina LEADS the NHL with a +11.0 shot differential, per game.

    And...
    Carolina has lost 3 in a row.

    They are perhaps the ONE team in the NHL right now where a shot-surplus isn't equaling a victory.
    Either that's just "Bad Luck" or they need to figure out how to re-work their system.

    I do believe they'll find a best way to use Dougie.
    He's a 50pt player, he'll get there.
    Slow-start, just like last year.


    [Back-Patting Note: The two teams whose goalies are tried to "value-draft" in one-year leagues this year, Carolina & Florida, are #1 and #2 in shots on net FOR per game. They are also both top five teams at a +5 or more shot differential per game. Should translate to eventual wins... but I haven't raked it yet. Ugh.]
    Thanks for this, Penguin -- this is some good insight.

    I guess I hope for a healthy 2nd half and something of a team turnaround. It would really help if they mix up how they deploy Faulk. If all I got was a Dman who will put up, say, 30 points in the next 50 games plus some good peripherals (SOG, HIT, that's actually still a good deal for me, I suppose, because I'm not going to find a Dman on the waiver wire who is likely to do that for me -- whereas finding a few streamers who can add up to something like a the 70-point player I traded for him (Granlund) is a less tall order.
    -----------------

    LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.

    ROSTER:

    C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
    LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
    RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
    D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
    G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)

    * = 2023 keepers

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