Svech vs Meier going forward

[Luffy D Monkey]

Next few years, how do you see these guys stacking up in points only.

Meier is the clear winner right now for me, and I’m not sure about Svech’s potential.

[lucafen4]

just remember how long it took Meier to reach THIS level before taking him over the consensus #2 O/A pick in the draft 5mths ago. Short term - next 2yrs... I like Meier.. but then i expect Svech to hit his stride.

[j0hn_d0e]

I have been waiting for Meier's breakout for 2 years maybe.. drafted him last year and the year before, but he breaksout this year when hes not in my team

To the question - I would take my chance with Svechnikov who has the potential to be in the goal leaders every year. The question is if hes going to reach that potential(40 goals season) and how long would take.

[MZac]

A few years to me is 2-3. I like Meier during that time frame. After that the guessing gets a bit blurry and it could easily be svech but for now I'd take the guy that's hitting his stride over the guy that will probably hit his stride sometime in the next year to three years.

[havanablast21]

For me, Meier > Svech. Agreed, it's taken Meier a few years to hit his stride, but I could see it taking Svech just as long. And by then...

And while the Svech owner waits on return... Meier is paying dividends now.

[VincentVega]

Meier is hitting is stride BUT it has been but 18 games this young season and the underlying stats say Meier has been lucky: oiSH% of 13.4 (career 8.3). I want to wait until the end of the season to see what kind of real breakout Meier has. I'm thinking he's a 30-35 goal, 25-30 assist player when all the dust is settled. Svech will take a couple of years but I think his upside is higher than that.

[havanablast21]

Meier is hitting is stride BUT it has been but 18 games this young season and the underlying stats say Meier has been lucky: oiSH% of 13.4 (career 8.3). I want to wait until the end of the season to see what kind of real breakout Meier has. I'm thinking he's a 30-35 goal, 25-30 assist player when all the dust is settled. Svech will take a couple of years but I think his upside is higher than that.

if "Thinks" and "Buts" were candy and nuts...we'd all have a Merry Christmas (don't they say). OK... I know that's not really the saying, yet it outlines the risk on both sides. Maybe Meier is a 30-35 goal scorer this year. He's currently on pace for 50+ goals so VV is right... a regression is likely on the horizon. But he's got a sample size to work with and one that has been achieved on an upward trajectory with him scoring over 20 goals in just his 2nd season. Maybe 30-35 is the goal this year, but is 40 out of reach next and beyond? How much better can Svech be?

Nice problem to have, but I'm still taking the bird in hand especially if I'm competing now, which is definitely something to consider when picking between the two.

[Axeman33]

just remember how long it took Meier to reach THIS level before taking him over the consensus #2 O/A pick in the draft 5mths ago. Short term - next 2yrs... I like Meier.. but then i expect Svech to hit his stride.

Agreed

[ericdaoust]

I think Svech is trending in the right direction in terms of ice time and the production will follow before long. That said Meier is scary good ATM. Some of his advanced stats might show he's way above where he should be but I see it more as him underachieving the last two years. This year he's breaking out. Maybe not point/game level but he should be 60-70 easy.

[Pengwin7]

Svechnikov, for sure, for me.
Carolina has a lot of money tied up in their defense (all 6D signed, + RFA Fleury).
So guys like Ferland & J.Williams may not be back next year.
CAR probably needs to throw $7m+ at Aho, maybe $4.5m at TT... and maybe they go after Bobrovsky!? (or Talbot - because Darling/Mrazek ain't working)

This one, for me, is as simple as this:
Svechnikov is a great talent who WILL be RW1 and PP1 on his team, based on his talent, contract, and his forward-talent signed.
Meier is a very good talent who WILL be RW2 and PP2 on his team, due to the forward talent level (E.Kane, Couture, Pavelski?, Hertl) in front of him, and with 2D now on PP1, less open spots for forwards.

2017-2018: Meier 60pts, Svechnikov 35pts
2018-2019: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 55pts
2019-on: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 70+pts

[Pacman]

One bright spot seen in Svechnikov is that he shoots and hits. He isn’t soft by the looks of it.

[LeafsFan1967]

Svechnikov, for sure, for me.
Carolina has a lot of money tied up in their defense (all 6D signed, + RFA Fleury).
So guys like Ferland & J.Williams may not be back next year.
CAR probably needs to throw $7m+ at Aho, maybe $4.5m at TT... and maybe they go after Bobrovsky!? (or Talbot - because Darling/Mrazek ain't working)

This one, for me, is as simple as this:
Svechnikov is a great talent who WILL be RW1 and PP1 on his team, based on his talent, contract, and his forward-talent signed.
Meier is a very good talent who WILL be RW2 and PP2 on his team, due to the forward talent level (E.Kane, Couture, Pavelski?, Hertl) in front of him, and with 2D now on PP1, less open spots for forwards.

2017-2018: Meier 60pts, Svechnikov 35pts
2018-2019: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 55pts
2019-on: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 70+pts

I disagree that Meier will be RW2 and PP2 on his team.

Pavelski is turning 35 in the summer, and Meier for sure has the biggest upside of the forwards on the Sharks, plus he's only 22. He also got moved up to the first pp recently, and he did all of his damage before that, plus he's more or less on a 1a 1b type of line with Hertl and Couture, and you've got Pavelski and Kane on the other.

Just seems a bit too flat in terms of your projections, and Meier had 36 pts in 17/18 not 60 (maybe a typo).

I don't see how he'd jump by 2 points, then flatten out. He's a 1st round pick with high pedigree, so you could be looking at one of the higher end scoring wingers (not just a banger league asset) going forward. He's leading the Sharks in goals and 2nd in points (1st among forwards), so he'll get every opportunity and continue to get better. Kane has never had 60 pts to date, and he's 28, so if anything he's a Top 6 guy but not top line consistently (he'll range from 1-3). And Couture is turning 30 next year, and he's been a proven 60-65 point guy but nothing more, and Hertl is 25 and only now producing similar to how Meier is as a 22 year old.

I don't know, just looking at it closer I don't think Meier is getting enough credit here.

[Pengwin7]

Just seems a bit too flat in terms of your projections, and Meier had 36 pts in 17/18 not 60 (maybe a typo).

Seeing as how I gave Svechnikov points for 17/18... yes, it is a typo.
Meant to list this year (18/19, next year 19/20, and the year after).

I see their futures as:
2018-2019: Meier 60pts, Svechnikov 35pts
2019-2020: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 55pts
2020-on: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 70+pts

Also, to clarify on Meier.
He has been playing PP1, but SJ has:
1. Moved Karlsson off PP1 regularly.
2. Hertl has been injured last 5gp or so.

On the season, the Sharks most common PP1 is Hertl/Pavelski/Couture/Karlsson/Burns.
Then, actually, Labanc had been preferred in for one of the D, as the 4th forward option.
So... the Sharks PP1 usage this year suggests that Meier may be the 5th (or 4th) forward down the list.

Meier, E.Kane, Hertl, and Couture are all LH shots.
That's a lot of competition on PP1.

(In fairness, Svech-LH, also has similar LH logjam of shooters in Carolina, but I just think he's closer to being the top sniper there.)

I do agree with others that Meier should outproduce him this year & next.
I just believe Svechnikov is a truly special player and that we'll see it by 2020-onwards.

[LeafsFan1967]

Seeing as how I gave Svechnikov points for 17/18... yes, it is a typo.
Meant to list this year (18/19, next year 19/20, and the year after).

I see their futures as:
2018-2019: Meier 60pts, Svechnikov 35pts
2019-2020: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 55pts
2020-on: Meier 62pts, Svechnikov 70+pts

Also, to clarify on Meier.
He has been playing PP1, but SJ has:
1. Moved Karlsson off PP1 regularly.
2. Hertl has been injured last 5gp or so.

On the season, the Sharks most common PP1 is Hertl/Pavelski/Couture/Karlsson/Burns.
Then, actually, Labanc had been preferred in for one of the D, as the 4th forward option.
So... the Sharks PP1 usage this year suggests that Meier may be the 5th (or 4th) forward down the list.

Meier, E.Kane, Hertl, and Couture are all LH shots.
That's a lot of competition on PP1.

(In fairness, Svech-LH, also has similar LH logjam of shooters in Carolina, but I just think he's closer to being the top sniper there.)

I do agree with others that Meier should outproduce him this year & next.
I just believe Svechnikov is a truly special player and that we'll see it by 2020-onwards.

Just pointing out that an error was made in your initial post, I'm helping you out. Hertl played last night, and I wouldn't peg him as better than Meier or more deserving of #1 pp unit. Same with Lebanc, even if he's been preferred as you put it, but what do the numbers say?

Meier is already playing like a top line winger, and San Jose has lots of older players so he'll be a go to guy for a long time.

Just think 60, 62, 62 is pretty unrealistic. That's saying he'll get no better more or less, and that's assuming he regresses from his ppg pace to 60 pts this year. But even if he does, he should be able to get to 70+ going forward.

[VincentVega]

Just pointing out that an error was made in your initial post, I'm helping you out. Hertl played last night, and I wouldn't peg him as better than Meier or more deserving of #1 pp unit. Same with Lebanc, even if he's been preferred as you put it, but what do the numbers say?

Meier is already playing like a top line winger, and San Jose has lots of older players so he'll be a go to guy for a long time.

Just think 60, 62, 62 is pretty unrealistic. That's saying he'll get no better more or less, and that's assuming he regresses from his ppg pace to 60 pts this year. But even if he does, he should be able to get to 70+ going forward.

I don't see Meier as 70+ point player. He is not a very good playmaker and his assists will be on the low end. 35 goals, 25 assists is where I see him in most years. Don't let his hot (and unsustainable) start make you think he is a 50-goal scorer.