There's an issue with this forum and I want to address it.

[Jyeatbvg]

I apologize for making my post seem like an attack. That wasn't the intent when it was written, it was just me getting worked up as I was thinking it through in my head. The intent was to voice my opinion in a forthright manner as to spur others to voice their own opinions, and then to get a discussion going. Thank you all for responding and I hope we can keep this as a thoughtful discussion.

[finnys_fanatsy]

I apologize for making my post seem like an attack. That wasn't the intent when it was written, it was just me getting worked up as I was thinking it through in my head. The intent was to voice my opinion in a forthright manner as to spur others to voice their own opinions, and then to get a discussion going. Thank you all for responding and I hope we can keep this as a thoughtful discussion.

ya..we good

[rangerdanger]

Lol. I think consistency can blind some also. There are certainly many who chase shiny new toys. But I think often you have to look at these young players as a big of a gamble. With someone like Elias Pettersson for instance.

Right now he looks elite, or at least like he will be elite. Understandably, it isn't set in stone and there are many things that can go wrong. However, if he is this elite player, now is likely the cheapest you will ever be able to obtain him. In a situation like this, it really comes down to the owners subjective prospectus on the player and a risk assessment. If you go for Pettersson and he proves to be this good, then you likely made an magnificent deal. Each player has their own variables and risk.

For instance, at the beginning of the season, I could have slightly overpaid for Chabot. But so uncertain are young D, that I decided it wasn't worth the risk at the moment.

Well damn am I kicking myself now. Chabot's value has risen 4 or 5x likely. Now that isn't to say he will continue this magical production. But if he is the player he currently looks like, paying a slightly high price at the start of the season would now look like a genius move. Especially in like Dynasty leagues which is mostly what I play.

So now, if you were to pay what it would likely cost for Chabot, you would be taking a much larger risk with less room for improvement. It's hard to go up when you are all ready at the top.

So sure, very often rookies and young players will be overpaid for. But depending who that player is, you could also argue that cost was low relative to how that player turned out. This kind of risk assessment and prospecting is a huge reason people come to these boards. But if someone gave the advice at the start of the season to pay the then low cost for Pettersson or Chabot, right now it is probably looking like a genius move.

What I think people do often ignore is % risk. Not all prospects and young players have the same % chance to reach their potential. When I am looking for young players, this is probably the biggest factor I am concerned with initially. For instance Tolvanen vs Pettersson were fairly even coming in to the season. Now there is a huge gap in their values. I thought Pettersson stood a much greater chance of reaching his prospected output than Tolvanen, so I would have been happy paying a bit over for Pettersson, where as I was trying to move Tolvanen as I fear his % chance to reach potential is far too much of a gamble in comparison.

[Luffy D Monkey]

Meh, I don't think your rant is particularly insightful or accurate.

Acquiring great young players is incredibly important in Keeper Leagues (this is the Keeper League forum by the way) and not doing a good job in this area can lead to multiple years of dismal failure.

Don't forget that reading the market, buying low and selling high, value trading etc. are essential in many leagues. The best manager in my league is the guy who owns Petterssen and Chabot right now. But he also won't shy away from trading them for peak value at some point.

[rangerdanger]

Meh, I don't think your rant is particularly insightful or accurate.

Acquiring great young players is incredibly important in Keeper Leagues (this is the Keeper League forum by the way) and not doing a good job in this area can lead to multiple years of dismal failure.

Don't forget that reading the market, buying low and selling high, value trading etc. are essential in many leagues. The best manager in my league is the guy who owns Petterssen and Chabot right now. But he also won't shy away from trading them for peak value at some point.

Couldn't agree more. I would add, some owners have a much better eye than others when it comes to prospecting young players. Not to toot my own horn, but in the last 2 years I have drafted and traded away Aho, Necas, Barzal, and Connor, only to trade to get them back the following year before they blew up. Also drafted Boeser 2 years ago, Jokiharju this year and picked up Howden before the first game of the season. Traded for Keller last year in another league and drafted PLD and Chabot. Sure, I have drafted some bad players throughout the years too. Curtis Lazar, Jared McCann and Cody Hodgson come to mind. But the vast majority of the young players and rookies I have stuck with have payed off. I do a ton of research and watch a ton of game footage and videos.

I would have bet money on Elias Pettersson becoming a terrific player. Meanwhile I have avoided Dylan Strome at all cost over the past few years. This year, I grabbed Tolvanen only to trade him away because he strikes me as a player that is not going to live up to his perceived potential or the hype surrounding him. I love taking advantage of those situations. I would easily have swapped Tolvanen for any of Svechnikov, Pettersson or probably Zadina.

I see other owners in my leagues with absolutely no luck at this, or perhaps just no "skill". So in that sense, not every persons advice carries the same value.

Just for kicks, other players I am avoiding are Lias Andersson, Vilardi, Mete, DeAngelo, D. Sikura, Timmins, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Logan Brown, Borgstrom and Boqvist. While I am absolutely loving and trying to obtain Bouchard, Brannstrom, A. Svechnikov, Necas, Zadina, Jokiharju, Kunin, White or anyone named Tkachuk. Not that they will all work out or bust. But guess time will tell.

For instance, Lias Andersson is probably valued way more than Howden, Theodore more than Brannstrom and Boqvist more than Jokiharju. Yet I think Howden, Brannstrom and Jokiharju stand a very good chance of being the superior players for their respective teams. 3 Players that can be gotten for much much less than their hyped contemporaries who will likely be battling for the same positions. Same might be said for Colin White vs Logan Brown. Kyrou and Thomas seem about even, all though I would lean towards Thomas. I fear both Puljujarvi and Yamamoto are not the answer in Edmonton. And I definitely like Valimaki over Hanifin long term in Calgary. Kunin to me seems exceptional value right now for what he is going for in Dynasty.

Lol. We will see.

[StuntMan12]

I'm still a believer in Sebastian Aho even though he has cooled down lately. He is an incredibly smart and creative player. He is also much younger and fresher than Stamkos. Stamkos has a lengthy history of injuries which I was concerned about, coupled with the fact that much of his points came in the early part of last season where him and Kucherov were putting up ridiculous numbers. I stand by my statement and I still don't trust Stamkos. It's almost a crime if you don't go with the cultural norm or something. People here come from different perspectives and it's nice to hear other people's opinions but I also don't think we should berate or belittle anyone's opinions just because they don't line up with your own. Not that you were berating or belittling anyone but I've seen people do it in the past.

[rtstr]

If you have a problem with a fantasy hockey forum, the easiest way to address that is by simply not using the forum and going somewhere else for your fantasy hockey advice.

[rangerdanger]

If you have a problem with a fantasy hockey forum, the easiest way to address that is by simply not using the forum and going somewhere else for your fantasy hockey advice.

Well said! Just don't go to HFboards and try talking fantasy hockey. While I find it's a great source of information on young players, they really hate fantasy talk.

[finnys_fanatsy]

Well said! Just don't go to HFboards and try talking fantasy hockey. While I find it's a great source of information on young players, they really hate fantasy talk.

youre not kidding man...

[rangerdanger]

youre not kidding man...

Lol. It happened to you too? I got blasted and completely ignored for like 3 months when I first joined just for asking a fantasy hockey question in a player thread. Now I have to carefully craft my posts there when I'm fishing for fantasy info.

[SeaDawg]

The OP is raising a very good point in this thread, in that no one should get blinded by any player's hot start (not limiting this to a rookie). However, as others have said, sometimes it makes sense to acquire a young player before it is too late. I remember when McDavid first entered the league and some people suggested right away he was the most valuable player in fantasy hockey, while others still argued that they'd want the proven vets (Crosby, Malkin, etc.) instead.

I'm not saying Pettersson is McDavid, but I think there's a good chance he will be better than a lot of proven vets very soon (if not already).

Also, we must take into consideration various league formats. In the league in my signature, I'd seriously consider Pettersson over Kucherov. I know that sounds crazy, but next year Kucherov will make $12 million and Pettersson will make $925,000. If I keep Kucherov next year at $12 million, I will have to release Benn and Letang, and might not be able to retain Point (if he signs for over $7 million). If I can save over $11 million by having Pettersson instead of Kucherov, I am in a better position to build a well-balanced team.

[rangerdanger]

The OP is raising a very good point in this thread, in that no one should get blinded by any player's hot start (not limiting this to a rookie). However, as others have said, sometimes it makes sense to acquire a young player before it is too late. I remember when McDavid first entered the league and some people suggested right away he was the most valuable player in fantasy hockey, while others still argued that they'd want the proven vets (Crosby, Malkin, etc.) instead.

I'm not saying Pettersson is McDavid, but I think there's a good chance he will be better than a lot of proven vets very soon (if not already).

Also, we must take into consideration various league formats. In the league in my signature, I'd seriously consider Pettersson over Kucherov. I know that sounds crazy, but next year Kucherov will make $12 million and Pettersson will make $925,000. If I keep Kucherov next year at $12 million, I will have to release Benn and Letang, and might not be able to retain Point (if he signs for over $7 million). If I can save over $11 million by having Pettersson instead of Kucherov, I am in a better position to build a well-balanced team.

I think both hot starts and consistently have a tendency for blinding as you say. I would use Huberdeau or Jeff Skinner as examples. They are both relatively consistent but both relatively fixed in their output. I would honestly risk moving both for a young player on a hot start that I think has a chance of continuing. It's quite different from a consistent top 20 - 25 player. When you reach that sort of level, it's the type of production you would want out of your hot start rookies anyway. So makes much less sense. BUt when discussing a consistent mid tier player, I think that changes things drastically.

[captaincrunch32]

People on these forums are too blinded with shiny new toys. The Petterssons, the Dahlins, Debrincats, Tkachuk's, etc. And it's not right. The advice given is ridiculous and painful. Whatever happened to the age-old concepts of "consistency" and "track record"? What happened to the days where you evaluated players based on how good they are now? What happened to managers wanting to win now?

In too many threads, people are advising that these young, rookie types should be kept over bonafide stars with years of production. Any player over 25 years old, it seems, is past his prime. On the contrary, any player under the age of 22 with 5+ goals is the next Gretzky. It is getting ridiculous.

In one thread, a delirious manager said he preferred Pettersson to MacKinnon. Yes - the same MacKinnon who's 22 years old and led the league in PPG last year. In another thread, it was Pettersson over Scheifele. Aho over Stamkos. Boeser over Tarasenko. Aho over Malkin. Pettersson over Gaudreau.

STOP IT. IT'S JUST NOT RIGHT. You should be advising your dobber brethren to WIN NOW, not to win in a couple of years. Too often, this forum thinks about having the best looking keepers. The youngest guys, the hottest new names. But flags fly forever. While you're so busy collecting your holographic rookie cards, someone else in your league is running away with the championship using guys that are proven. Do the right thing, and give the right advice.

/END RANT

The horse has been beaten to death...but...the basic fault in your premise, I think, is it seems you are lumping every forum user together. The forum, as far as I can tell gets contributions from older folks and younger folks and their opinions will vary based upon their respective age and experience. Do I go crazy every time I see one of the "did I win this deal" comment? Boy do I. In my head, the person posting this is a younger fan who wants someone to trade him McDavid and Crosby for Casey Cziekas. But you know what, it could also be an older person that was always that way. There was a guy at the Yankees game this season. About 70. Drunk. Takes off his shirt so he's bare chested. He starts waving his shirt around chanting "Let's Go Yankees". This guy is 70. I don't think he decided at 70 that he's going to do something nutty. He's been nutty his whole life and now he's just being nutty at 70. so, when you see these "shiny toy" posts, just consider the source before you get upset. If it's someone with a track record of sage advice but now seems to have gone off the deep end, maybe ask them to explain why. If it's someone who always posts nutty positions, take it with a grain of salt and move on.

[NoDoughty]

Hype + absurd shooting percentages + small sample size = You're as good as McDavid.

[GinFizz]

I wouldnt trade my Pettersson for his McDavid. no way no how.. kid is elite...

#trolling #sarcasm #Mooseownsboth