Traded Chabot for Ghost. Regret is setting in.

[speersy]

I thought it was a perfect sell high, buy low. Ghost has been one of the best Dmen in my league the last couple seasons, and I thought Chabot was due for a big correction. Starting to think Chabot might be the second coming of Karlsson and I just let him go.

Thoughts? Did I mess up?

[FrozenInferno]

Chabot's pace WILL slow largely due to his insane secondary assist pace that isn't even remotely sustainable. Even if he finishes somewhere between 50-60pts by seasons' end he will have burned up 20 of those in this first quarter of the season, and not down the stretch and into playoffs where you really need them the most. He's good but I'm not calling a second year defenseman a 70-80pt guy. It just doesn't happen. Ever.

Meanwhile Ghost may very well see the opposite happen, slow start in the first quarter then heat up and finish strong down the stretch.

If I have my choice I take the more established Ghost. I think it should be a good sell high, buy low if you have the patience to wait out the early season hype and wait for Ghost to get into his groove.

[VincentVega]

You did well. Ghost > Chabot. Chabot's numbers scream regression. Too many secondary assists and sh% both unsustainable.

[SeaDawg]

I'd want Gostisbehere in every single format imaginable.

That said, you really have nothing to worry about. You only keep 5 players and I doubt Gostisbehere or Chabot would be among your keepers.

[Axeman33]

No one can honestly tell you if you made the right decision or not. We can only go on what we know today and at this point, you went with someone more proven. I don't know why you are regretting that at this point. Still way too early to tell if you made the right choice or not but it's made now. No sense regretting it. It's not like you bought a guy who's a fly-by-night sensation.

[j0hn_d0e]

I thought it was a perfect sell high, buy low. Ghost has been one of the best Dmen in my league the last couple seasons, and I thought Chabot was due for a big correction. Starting to think Chabot might be the second coming of Karlsson and I just let him go.

Thoughts? Did I mess up?

It is! You made a great trade I think. Of course no one can tell you for sure if Ghost will be the better player for the rest of the season, but I think theres nothing to worry about.

[cujothespaz]

Good trade. As it was already mentionned, Chabot will regress considerably while Ghost will get it going. I still think Ghost can finish with higher totals than Chabot, so it is a win for this year and like seadawg said, both probably won't be in your 5 keepers so future seasons comparisons don't matter. Good deal

[2014olympicgold]

I'm going to say you did what 90% of the world would do. You took the more proven player for the "rookie".

Now. You look at what Gost does. PP is his thing. Excluding this season, his previous 3 yrs look like this:

218GP, 150pts, 78PPP...52% of his points are Powerplay points.

Last 3 yrs the Flyers PP ranked:
2017-18: 11th in PPG, 7th in PPO (Powerplay opportunities)
2016-17: 7th in PPG, 1st in PPO
2015-16: 6th in PPG, 2nd in PPO

2018-19: 23rd in PPG, 12th in PPO

Gost gets his points on the PP. The Flyers this yr, so far (I say so far), have not done well on the PP, or getting on the PP like they used too. That coupled with the fact he's been used in a more defensive matter to help shelter some of the other D they have (his defensive zone starts % is up a whole 10% from last yr), I don't think we see a 50-60pt Gost this yr.

Now it is only 15games in for them, these stats could adjust after 2 weeks, but the key is if the Flyers don't top 5 PPO, Gost won't produce to his potential. His PPP/EVP this yr even reflect his typical ratio (4PPP/3EVP). This is just me saying as a warning, I don't think Gost can get to that 60pt mark this yr, but if the Flyers get up in the PPO, I may change my tone.

[SeaDawg]

I'm going to say you did what 90% of the world would do. You took the more proven player for the "rookie".

Now. You look at what Gost does. PP is his thing. Excluding this season, his previous 3 yrs look like this:

218GP, 150pts, 78PPP...52% of his points are Powerplay points.

Last 3 yrs the Flyers PP ranked:
2017-18: 11th in PPG, 7th in PPO (Powerplay opportunities)
2016-17: 7th in PPG, 1st in PPO
2015-16: 6th in PPG, 2nd in PPO

2018-19: 23rd in PPG, 12th in PPO

Gost gets his points on the PP. The Flyers this yr, so far (I say so far), have not done well on the PP, or getting on the PP like they used too. That coupled with the fact he's been used in a more defensive matter to help shelter some of the other D they have (his defensive zone starts % is up a whole 10% from last yr), I don't think we see a 50-60pt Gost this yr.

Now it is only 15games in for them, these stats could adjust after 2 weeks, but the key is if the Flyers don't top 5 PPO, Gost won't produce to his potential. His PPP/EVP this yr even reflect his typical ratio (4PPP/3EVP). This is just me saying as a warning, I don't think Gost can get to that 60pt mark this yr, but if the Flyers get up in the PPO, I may change my tone.

This is such an excellent analysis, and (if I can brag for a moment here) what I expected might happen coming into this season, and why in the off-season I dealt Gostisbehere for a package that included Provorov.

Last year Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, and Gostisbehere all had career years, largely due to the phenomenal power play results they had. Provorov, on the other had, had an awesome 40 point season, leading the NHL in goal scoring by a defenseman, with 5 measly pp points. I predicted that the likelihood of Giroux, Voracek, Couturier, and Gostisbehere collectively repeating their performances was small. I assumed other teams would figure out how to better defend the power play. I also assumed that because Provorov got most of his points at even strength, that he was more likely to repeat.

Now, all that said, Provorov isn't necessarily tearing it up so far, but he isn't that far off his point pace from last year, so for now I'm not too upset about dealing Gostisbehere.

All this doesn't change how I feel about Gostisbehere. He is still my favorite player in the NHL and certainly an elite option, and there are only a handful of dmen I'd take over him (one for one) in most leagues.

[rtstr]

I'd never trade my Ghost for Chabot. Nice deal sir!

[MZac]

I think you almost certainly win this deal this season in the longer run. Id make the trade easily myself.

[lucafen4]

you only feel like you messed up because Gost hasn't turned it around immediately after your deal. we're still not even 20% into the season. Patience. Gost will arrive in due time.

[FrozenInferno]

Back to back two point games for Ghost

[RiseAbove14]

Same for chabot lol...

[kevinsrangers]

right now I'd never give up ghost for chabot. things will settle out.