Nylander....who's to blame

[blayze]

AM34 being out a month absolutely helps Nylander's case in the negotiations...

Living in the heart of Toronto (and being exposed to all the Leafs media/propaganda 24/7) I can definitely tell you that if Nylander doesn't sign by Dec 1st and ends up locked out for the whole season, the fanbase will side with management. The generally sentiment locally (and perpetuated by the media) is that Nylander is overreaching on this contract. If the rumors are true and the Leafs are at $6 while Willy is at $8 then I'd agree with the consensus... he's definitely not an $8M guy.

Having said that, I was not a fan of Shanny's tactic in setting the expectation that Willy, Marner and Matthews are all expected to take paycuts to keep the core together. That's a situation that happens with every virtually successful team (ie: Golden State) and those discussions should be held in private rather than trying to villanize the youngers in public.

[2014olympicgold]

I still think it AM34 injury doesn't help Nylander unless they get blown out and are below 500 in the games AM34 misses.

If AM34 misses 20 games (it's gonna be between 16-25 it looks like based on schedule) and Toronto goes 10-10, 18-13 is still a good record (0.580winning percentage, roughly 95pts over 82game).

However, something to note, how quickly this came out and how tight lipped the Leafs organization is now, who knows if 4weeks is even a realistic number. They could know right now it's more like 8weeks but don't want to tell us. 8 weeks would be like 30 games, and a 23-18 isn't as good (92pts/82games).

To summarize what I think:
- AM34's injury length coincides with TML record. The longer he's out, their results will suffer (duh)
- If Toronto can survive 20 games without him going 500 or above, Nylander doesn't gain any weight in negotiation
- If Toronto gets blown apart in games, Nylander gains weight in negotiation.

Toronto has 2 centers who can play as top centers, they have the depth to handle this. Handle and succeed though are 2 very different situations.

[Axeman33]

Kadri will have no issues stepping up into the 2C role. That's what he was doing the past couple seasons already. Not sure if losing Matthews will make much difference. JT and Kadri this year vs AM and Kadri last year, same poop different smell.

[MZac]

Leafs are deep up front. AM hurts but the team can handle it.

As far as the contract goes no one's to blame. Both sides are treating it like a business, as they should. This is game changing money for Nylander. He should absolutely not be villainized. The fanrs should not be relevant in this negotiation and its good that they actually have zero say and alot of them come off as ningcompoops when they talk about it.

If it was all about winning as a team and not the money then Shanahan, Mike Babcock, and the whole management team should lead by example and insist their salaries be set between 50-100k. Then they could openly state, with credibility, that everyone should be there for the ring(s). Otherwise its just a dirty self serving tactic that attempts to villainize the kid publicly and apply pressure to that side. It hasn't worked and all it will probably do is harm the long term relationship.

Can you imagine Babcock offering any of his monster salary back so that they could improve the team somewhere else (I know it doesn't count against the cap, that's not the point)?

[lucafen4]

anyone run the number to see what a 7.5 AAV would look like as a cap hit if Nylander signs late Nov? Conspiracy theory time: If the Leafs don't sign until late Nov. He will have missed almost 2 months of the season. Roughly, his cap hit would be somewhere around 8m for THIS season... but would be closer to 7.1 or 7.2 for the remainder of the deal.

Imagine that. Nylander gets closer to Nylander money, and the Leafs get closer to a cap hit they wanted. Don't underestimate Pridham's involvement as architect in this deal.

If they sign him a couple weeks from now (roughly Nov 16-20th) with an AAV of 7.5 & the 1st year salary of 4m - his estimated cap hit would be 7.185m on a 6yr deal.

See formula/ Hampus Lindholm example to see how it works: https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#rfa-caphit

[captaincrunch32]

The rumors for the short term deal (2-4 years) at 6 or so from Nylander and 4 or so from Tor. It’s crazy that a compromise can’t be reached...4 the first 2 years, 6 last two years. 4-5-6 for the three years.

[rataylor22]

Is that really enough to sway? It's not like they lose him, or can't sign him. They can sign him post Dec1 he just can't play. I don't think Leaf Nation would consider it a lose if Dubas doesn't sign him. The fanbase also doesn't control Dubas's fate, he doesn't care about what we thnk.

The team is 8-3 right now, and if they even go 0-5 in the next 2 weeks (Calgary, Dallas, @Pitt, Vegas, NJD) they are still 8-8. Until the team gets destroyed for 5+ games, the Nylander needle does not move.

Toronto is obviously wanting to build a long term success but absolutely December 1 is a very critical date that is shifting leverage back to Nylander. This is the last year Matthews and Marner are on their ELC. That absolutely matters.

It is going to be much much harder for Toronto to win every year after this year with the raises Marner and Matthews will get.

[Kabonov]

No one is to blame. I mean Dubas landed JT. JT worth losing a Willy. But he'll have to look at some trade offers in NOV.

And they will have to sign AM for around 12m/year, Marner will be like 9m/yr.
So signing Willy a 20g guy at anything more the 6 is just bad for business.

I have a feeling after this season, Leafs will be like the Chicago model post CUPs. Can't afford to pay any studs coming up in the development process. Unless the Salary cap get a huge boost.

[2014olympicgold]

No one is to blame. I mean Dubas landed JT. JT worth losing a Willy. But he'll have to look at some trade offers in NOV.

And they will have to sign AM for around 12m/year, Marner will be like 9m/yr.
So signing Willy a 20g guy at anything more the 6 is just bad for business.

I have a feeling after this season, Leafs will be like the Chicago model post CUPs. Can't afford to pay any studs coming up in the development process. Unless the Salary cap get a huge boost.

Seatttlllleeee

2017-18 season – 75mill
2018-19 season – 79.5mill
Jumped 4.5mill over 2seasons. The yr a new team gets into the league.

Every year before that jumps roughly 2mill.

Next yr it would be roughly 81.5mill, yr after could be 85mill. The Seattle joining the league, for the Leafs, need to happen soon.

[ericdaoust]

Seattle + gambling = big cap boost

[2014olympicgold]

Seattle + gambling = big cap boost

omg yeah, the gambling thing is going to be huge too! Good point.

[spacecowboy]

Willy Nilly isn't worth what Willy Nilly thinks he's worth.

I'm a Habs fan and I really like how the Leafs haven't caved to his demandes.

[captaincrunch32]

anyone run the number to see what a 7.5 AAV would look like as a cap hit if Nylander signs late Nov? Conspiracy theory time: If the Leafs don't sign until late Nov. He will have missed almost 2 months of the season. Roughly, his cap hit would be somewhere around 8m for THIS season... but would be closer to 7.1 or 7.2 for the remainder of the deal.

Imagine that. Nylander gets closer to Nylander money, and the Leafs get closer to a cap hit they wanted. Don't underestimate Pridham's involvement as architect in this deal.

If they sign him a couple weeks from now (roughly Nov 16-20th) with an AAV of 7.5 & the 1st year salary of 4m - his estimated cap hit would be 7.185m on a 6yr deal.

See formula/ Hampus Lindholm example to see how it works: https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#rfa-caphit

I love that that management is now floating...we'll trade him after December 1 to a non-contender...so transparent. Anyway, saw this today and feel somewhat vindicated that I had suggested this way earlier in this post. The fact that the parties are not interested in getting something like this done shows both are being intractably stubborn:

"Bob McKenzie: Plan A for both sides is still likely getting a deal done. One agent’s prediction on what a deal could look like:
a three-year bridge deal – four million in the first year, five million in the second year, seven million in the third year. That would be a $5.33 million AVV.”

That is likely more than Maple Leafs want to go and less than what Nylander’s camp wants."

[Kabonov]

Make him sit the year. then work out the 3 kid package deals they want