Mantha

[samuel87]

hey guys,

what are your upside for mantha this year and in 3 year? and with who would compare him? thanks

[Eskimo Brother]

This year Detroit looks like they're going down the toilet. Maybe Skinner on the Carolina teams that finished closest to the basement?

[jdreed3184]

I'd guess 45 points this year and 65 in 3 years

Maybe Vanek in his prime (minus the 84 point outlier year)?

[agentzero]

Looking to revitalize the discussion on Mantha. To me, he looks to become somewhat of an Anders Lee. 40G/ 65 pts in a perfect year, otherwise hovering around the 35G 25A range. Still decent but certainly not elite, unless Larkin manages to drag him to higher heights...

What say yee Dobber community? What kind of player do we have on our hands? FWIW he would be scoring north of 30 this year on an 82 game pace, so maybe he's already sort of arrived... if not, does he arrive in the magical 4th year?

[lucafen4]

There's a theory out there... I saw this noted in one of the ramblings - from a comment posted by 'Striker' in either Nov. or Dec.

After digging a bit, I found him talking about it on Disqus - Paraphrasing - Players over 6'2" or 215+lbs will take longer to reach their breakout potential than most other players. Usually right around the 400 game mark.
You're seeking it this year with K. Hayes & Kreider - as two larger players. Todd Bertuzzi - an older example - bumped from 55 - 85pts 01-02 - started that season pretty much smack dab at 400gp mark

Mantha - at 6'5" seems to be on target as an absolute prime candidate to fully test this theory. We're at the 186gp mark with him.
He's roughly on pace to replicate last seasons total of 48pts.
Normally, next season would be deemed the magical 4th year breakout.

Based on the above theory, an increase in production next year should be expected (basic player trajectory).
but...
the big man theory says it could be two full seasons after this - before Mantha reaches HIS actual break out season.
Assuming he's healthy. He'll have 220gp end of this year
300 end of 19/20
380 end of 20/21
21-22 would but him at 460 - he could easily be a 60+pt player by the end of 20/21,
but there's the real potential he pushes up over 70, possibly 80.

I'll give him 50 by seasons end, 55-60 next year and the year after.
but I'll bite on this theory and expect a big jump in 21/22 season.

By then others will have given up on him and he'll be lower on rosters, or even waiver wire in shallow leagues

[kevinsrangers]

I could see 35g. and 35a. for 70 points as an upside he can hit. might be a couple years away though.