Fantasy Hockey Geek - Testimonial

[mounD]

I just wanted to take a few moments and give a big shoutout to Fantasy Hockey Geek and the services the site provides in allowing poolies like us to get the leg up in our leagues. I decided to write this post to illustrate how you can use FHG ratings and rankings to your advantage against your fellow poolies who may not properly focus on all types of production. When you input your league settings into FHG and pop out the customized rankings, and you can see where skaters actually rank in terms of total value with your league settings.

Last month I took over a keeper league team in a 10-team Yahoo H2H dynasty. 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 6D, 2G, 7Bn. The categories for the league are G, A, +/-, PPP, SHP, SOG, Hit, Blk, FoW /// W, GAA, SV, Sv%, SHO. The roster was pretty stacked when I took over with a top end of McDavid, E. Karlsson, Marchand, and Patrik Laine + solid depth. I'd like to discuss some of the trades I have made so far using FHG rankings as a guide. The roster when I took over was:

C: McDavid, Barzal, Backstrom, Schenn, Point, Johansen
LW: Marchand, JvR, Pacioretty, Fabbri
RW: Laine, Voracek, Granlund, Stone, Oshie
D: Karlsson, Barrie, Pietrangelo, Theodore, McAvoy, Nurse, Shattenkirk, Weber(IR)
G: Bobrovsky, Holtby

For context, we have a farm system in our league where we can stash guys < 60 GP in the NHL. Once the player reaches 60 games (30 for skaters), the following offseason they must be promoted to main roster (24 keepers) or they become free agents. Mat Barzal was an obvious keep. Shea Theodore and McAvoy were also obvious keeps with my D being pretty weak. Shattenkirk was my fourth most valuable guy, and he kinda stinks in this format. So I took over this roster and noticed I needed to cut one player before keeper deadline. Instead, I targeted a GM who was weak at the Center position, and I tried to exploit that weakness using FHG as my guide.

Trade 1: Ryan Johansen + Robby Fabbri <--> Jonathan Marchessault (C,LW)

This trade was just a flat-out huge win for me. I can't say that I really relied on FHG to know that this was great value for me, but it definitely confirmed my suspicions. Not only did I upgrade in terms of raw value and upside, but I also acquired a player at LW, shoring up a weakness in dealing from a strength. Even with Faceoff wins as a category, FHG tells me that Ryan Johansen was only the 113th most valuable skater with these categories while Jonathan Marchessault was the 21st ranked skater. I realize that a massive plus-minus rating is buoying that ranking for Marchessault, but I would still confidently project him as a top-50 skater in multi-cat leagues with SOG and Hits. I was very pleased with this deal, and FHG only confirmed that.

Trade 2: Mark Stone <--> Kyle Palmieri

People may disagree with this trade, as Mark Stone likely has more perceived value than Palmieri. But with these settings, Palmieri is just the better skater. Circumstances have only gotten worse for Stone with the dumpster fire that is Ottawa, while Palmieri finds himself on the Hall-Hischier line and PP1 early on in the season. Early returns tell me I made the right choice here. Last season, both skaters ranked just inside the top-150 only playing 62 and 58 games, respectively. This one could go either way, but in order for Stone to outrank Palmieri he would have to repeat his career-best point scoring pace from last season. I'm not betting on that outcome with the Senators. Meanwhile, Palmieri has upside for career numbers if he manages to stick on the Hall line at even strength. I like the gamble.

Trade 3: Shea Theodore + Casey Mittelstadt (prospect) <--> Rasmus Ristolainen

Nothing crazy here. I felt that the Rasmus Dahlin hype had reached epic proportions prior to the season, and folks were underrating Ristolainen in a big way. Sure, his plus-minus is going to be garbage but he contributes across the board statistically, and seems locked in to a PP1 with Eichel, Reinhart, Skinner. Even with a -25 rating, Risto still came in as the 57th ranked skater in this league for the 17-18 season. I wasn't sold on Mittelstadt being a consistent producer right off the bat, and obviously Ristolainen is a big upgrade over Theodore. FHG confirmed for me that, even if Mittelstadt were to become a 45-50 point center right away, I would come out far ahead on this deal. Comparable players are typically available via free agency, and I'm already stacked at the center position to begin with. Mitts would have to usurp Point or Schenn to make his way into my lineup as a reserve. I may have overpaid in futures, but Ristolainen was too good to pass up. He's rewarded my faith so far with a solid start.


Trade 4: TJ Oshie + Kevin Shattenkirk <--> Tomas Hertl (+ Ryan Pulock free agent)

Here's where things start to get pretty interesting. I realized there were some quality Dmen available in free agency, so I came to the conclusion that I was going to have to cut another roster spot to accommodate. Another 2-for-1 was the ticket. Hertl is one of those guys that is just really valuable "utility" player in fantasy hockey pools with settings like this league. He is C,LW,RW eligible and racks up faceoffs from the wing. He's got upside for 50 points, skates on PP1, contributes the occasional SHP, and gets consistently good ice-time. He's also solid in Goals, SOG, and Hits. Oshie is somebody who had a great playoffs and still carries a good bit of name value, and in retrospect I probably could've gotten more than just Hertl for the package I sent. Last season, however, Oshie was the 160th ranked skater with a 33 FHG value, whereas Tomas Hertl ranked 54th with a 73 FHG value (one spot above Rakell). I was also able to add Ryan Pulock (FHG rank 141) to replace Shattenkirk.

Trade 5: E. Karlsson + Backstrom + JvR <--> Letang + Bergeron + Landeskog

So obviously this is the major blockbuster, and this is also the trade that FHG helped me with the most. Erik Karlsson is obviously a premier asset, and I wouldn't recommend entertaining the idea of trading him unless you're ready to do your homework and field some offers. Normally I would have taken the time to shop him around, but when this offer came up I had to accept it immediately. Because I had studied the ratings, I knew that Patrice Bergeron's per-game numbers from last season would have put him on pace to finish as the 9th ranked skater in this league last season. He is primed to repeat those numbers, and he has already begun filling the scoresheet through the first few games. I'm also a big believer in Kris Letang and a major Penguins fan, so I didn't really see the downgrade from Karlsson to Letang as being that bad. Plus, Letang typically fills the peripheral categories (hits and blocks) better than Karlsson. While Karlsson (and Letang imo) should see an improvement from last season's numbers, I will use them as points of reference for this trade breakdown.

First off, I upgrade Backstrom (FHG rank 103) to Bergeron, whom I mentioned was the 9th best per-game skater in this league last season. Bergeron is the best player in the deal. Next, the upgrade from JvR (FHG rank 116) to Landeskog (FHG rank 30) was similarly massive. Finally, moving Karlsson (FHG rank 72) for Letang (FHG rank 39) is more of a lateral move than anything else. I really feel that Letang put up 60+ points this season, and in that scenario they're pretty similar in total value. I lose a few points, but I gain on peripherals -- and get two massive upgrades at C and LW. Ironically, none of the people I told about this trade actually thought I did well for myself. I guess it's true that Karlsson could have more perceived value, and I could have gotten a bit more in terms of that perceived value; however, I fully believe that these trades are all going to pay dividends for my team going forward.

I guess that's the reason I made this post, the moral of the story if you will is that you shouldn't let "perceived value" steer you away from making a move that will improve your club. Always go by the numbers, trust your gut and your projections, and don't make rash decisions with hot/cold starting players. Fantasy Hockey Geek is a wonderful tool to allow poolies to make these types of decisions. I think my team is a lot stronger now, and I have FHG to thank for that outcome. I made a lot of moves, added some grit that I was lacking, got some much-needed faceoffs from winger spots, and I think ultimately improved my team.

C: McDavid, Bergeron, Barzal, Point, Schenn
LW: Marchand, Marchessault, Landeskog, Pacioretty, Lee
RW: Laine, Voracek, Granlund, Palmieri, Hertl
D: Letang, Ristolainen, Barrie, Pietrangelo, McAvoy, Pulock, Nurse, Weber(IR)
G: Bobrovsky, Holtby

[lucafen4]

I have to agree... in a lot of my posts/responses I talk a lot about real vs. perceived value. and name value. A name can get you a lot more than their actual production should dictate. It's a really interesting fantasy sports phenomena

[Moses]

MounD - Well said
FHG - Well done

[Axeman33]

I have to agree... in a lot of my posts/responses I talk a lot about real vs. perceived value. and name value. A name can get you a lot more than their actual production should dictate. It's a really interesting fantasy sports phenomena

I am right there with you on this as well.

Good original post D!

[Goal]

I couldn't agree more! I have used it for 2 years, and won 2 years in a row.

I just wish my league would trade more. It seems people don't want to make any trades.

[fantasyhockeygeek]

Very gratifying to hear y'all are getting great results from my baby.

For me personally, getting analytical and divorcing perceived value from production value was the big step in becoming a successful fantasy GM.

[parky777]

Very gratifying to hear y'all are getting great results from my baby.

For me personal, getting analytical and divorcing perceived value from production value was the big step in becoming a successful fantasy GM.

i too have really appreciated the value of the app.
We changed our cats two years ago and consequently the values of players changed. FHG allowed me to edit the cats on our league, which automatically changed the values on the players, using DD projections.
OGM looked at me as if I had lost my mind during the draft, but was 1st that year, and 2nd the next year.
My only fear is that everyone will catch on (LOL), but I am counting on their pride to keep some of our GM’s from doing that.

[stewie1]

I'm new to fantasy hockey and new to FHG. I have imported my yahoo league and generated rankings. They seem to be identical to the Yahoo player rankings based on league settings (under Players, Player List, set Status to All Players) with one exception, and that is that FHG overrates defensemen big time (I suppose, based on scarcity).

So I'm having a hard time figuring out how to use FHG to find players to target in trades, it doesn't seem to be giving me info that I'm not already getting from Yahoo. I must be doing something wrong! When you generate rankings, what are you basing those rankings on? When I use "on pace for the current season" I get some wonky results (mostly due to injuries).

If I buy the season toolkit, does it give me any additional info to help decide who to target in trades, aside from simple trial and error? I'm definitely looking for those "diamonds in the rough" that are undervalued multicat producers.

I can see there's something there... just not sure how to properly use it.
Thanks.

[Goal]

I'm new to fantasy hockey and new to FHG. I have imported my yahoo league and generated rankings. They seem to be identical to the Yahoo player rankings based on league settings (under Players, Player List, set Status to All Players) with one exception, and that is that FHG overrates defensemen big time (I suppose, based on scarcity).

So I'm having a hard time figuring out how to use FHG to find players to target in trades, it doesn't seem to be giving me info that I'm not already getting from Yahoo. I must be doing something wrong! When you generate rankings, what are you basing those rankings on? When I use "on pace for the current season" I get some wonky results (mostly due to injuries).

If I buy the season toolkit, does it give me any additional info to help decide who to target in trades, aside from simple trial and error? I'm definitely looking for those "diamonds in the rough" that are undervalued multicat producers.

I can see there's something there... just not sure how to properly use it.
Thanks.

When I do the rankings I use dobbers projections and season to date. That way it shows what dobber said mixed with how they are actually doing. And yes sometimes you have a wonky result with random players (they play 1 game and put up 5 pims and 5 hits then they are ranked 5th in the league). Its not a perfect system, but I don't think you can have one ever with how random fantasy can be some times. As I understand it, it basically uses the average for that position, so you have to watch for a player boosted by 1 very good stat (a RW that gets 80 blocks in a year might boost his rank a lot). So you do have to do some homework and really look at the players and what stats they have and what you need. Also another good thing to look for is the games played, if a player is hurt or suspended it will drop them very quickly on the rankings, and the other thing is a player like Prarise is likely to get hurt so his numbers are lower then what you may imagine because of the number of games to play (so you can either avoid a player like that due to injury or if you think the game number projection is too low you can buy on them).

Make sure you set up how the point work in the league and what categories you are using as well. To me, it shows what a player is really worth in a general sense. Eg. Patty Kane is ranked 69 but Josh Anderson is ranked 50, and Wayne Simmons is ranked 67th. Does that mean I should trade Kane for one of those other players? No, because his fantasy value drops because of non-existant hits and blocks.

Also, if you go to the trade analyzer you can see how the valves for each player work (just have to search the player). This will give you an idea of how the values are generated. This is just an extra tool to help make better choices, I could spend all day diving into players and trying to figure out who to target or get rid of or trade.