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Thread: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

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    Default Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    Had a conversation on here earlier about keepers, which I've mostly decided, except one decision that bugs me: keeping Filip Forsberg and Mikko Rantanen, as I can only hang on to one of them. The league format is H2H scoring, 3 points per goal, 2 points per assist, 0.5 points per penalty minute (or 1 point per 2 minute minor), and +/- 0.5 points for +/- rating (stupid IMO, but I'm not the one in charge).

    Anyway, I am leaning toward Forsberg given he's a proven point producer and has a history of getting it done regardless of linemates, and his PP60 was among the highest in the NHL last season. That said, Rantanen is in some impressive company as a guy who busted out an 84-point season at the tender age of 21. Is Rantanen merely a good player who put up great stats alongside Nathan MacKinnon? I don't know. What I do know is that Filip Forsberg would likely be fine if Ryan Johansen went down with an injury as opposed to Rantanen losing MacKinnon, whose had his share of injury woes over a short career.

    Just seeing if anybody else on here can convince me to go one way or another, or if there's something I'm missing.

    Thanks.

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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    Quote Originally Posted by BooBird View Post
    Had a conversation on here earlier about keepers, which I've mostly decided, except one decision that bugs me: keeping Filip Forsberg and Mikko Rantanen, as I can only hang on to one of them. The league format is H2H scoring, 3 points per goal, 2 points per assist, 0.5 points per penalty minute (or 1 point per 2 minute minor), and +/- 0.5 points for +/- rating (stupid IMO, but I'm not the one in charge).

    Anyway, I am leaning toward Forsberg given he's a proven point producer and has a history of getting it done regardless of linemates, and his PP60 was among the highest in the NHL last season. That said, Rantanen is in some impressive company as a guy who busted out an 84-point season at the tender age of 21. Is Rantanen merely a good player who put up great stats alongside Nathan MacKinnon? I don't know. What I do know is that Filip Forsberg would likely be fine if Ryan Johansen went down with an injury as opposed to Rantanen losing MacKinnon, whose had his share of injury woes over a short career.

    Just seeing if anybody else on here can convince me to go one way or another, or if there's something I'm missing.

    Thanks.
    It's a small sample size but Rantanen was fine when MacKinnon went down last year. I would lean towards Rantanen, in Colorado, where it seems that the offensive guys are given a lot of rope. Forsberg is in a system which, despite his wonderful talent, seems to depress his stats a bit. I don't think you will go wrong with either guy.

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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    This is a tough call for me...I really like Forsberg, and think he will score around 70-75 pts this season. However, Rantanen is coming off an 84 pt season. I don't know if he can repeat that, but he might. He is only 21 years old. Not often do players have their career year at the age of 21, so he might have even more to contribute. After all, players don't normally hit their prime until their mid-to-late twenties. Personally, I wouldn't overthink this too much. I'd just go with Rantanen because he has already done something that Forsberg hasn't really come close to doing (yet) in his career (that is, scoring over 80 points).
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    I own both these players and if someone said pick one in that setup I'd take Forsberg. Goals and +/- will even out any point differential if Rantanen manages to out-point him overall like last year. I don't think that's likely to be by much if Forsberg manages to get in a full season though. Although I agree with TB2P, I don't think MacKinnon going down is a tremendous concern as far as Rantanen's value is concerned. The only thing that might concern you there is regression, he did get a lot of his points from pp and secondary assists. That just strengthens the case for Forsberg, the only way you lose with him is if he gets injured, but you can't make decisions based on "ifs".
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    Rantanen for me - FF just seems like he's going to be Tarasenko 2.0 in that he'll always be primed for a huge season but that huge season just never will come.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    Forsberg. I need to see more from Rantanen. Last year was a fluke, I think.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    Rants as others have pointed out has some regression indicators. Lots of PP points, lots of secondary assists, high shooting percentage and Mackininnon will come back to earth a little maybe more of a 90 point guy then 100+ point guy. All of these factors have me more comfortable for Rants at 70 to 75 points oppose to 80-85 points.

    As for Forsberg Rizzie pointed it out and I have owned him in one league for years. He always has that promise but just doesn't take that next step. I am comfortable with him being a 30/35 guy with maybe upside for 35/40. I might gamble one last year on him because of his great pace last year and Rants regression indicators but its close.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    Like most here, I think Rantanen regresses a bit as well. The entire Avalanche top line destroyed all their personal bests last season. All indicators point to a slight decrease in overall points for all involved. That said, I also agree that Forsberg does not get ideal deployment in Nashville as they spread their offence around more than most teams. I think these guys are close enough going into this season to be a wash in points only, but with your emphasis on goals I think Forsberg takes it by a smidge. I would need to see one more great year out of Rantanen and one more semi-bust out of Forsberg before I would consider taking Rantanen over Forsberg in this type of set up.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    I'm just going to echo others sentiments, that the Goal-heavy nature of your format coupled with +/- means I've gotta give the edge to Forsberg. I know Nashville has been keen to spread out their ice time among the top-nine, but I think this could be the year they rely more on their top-six. Outside of Tolvanen, the team is lacking real scorers outside of the top two lines, and that could potentially mean a greater reliance on those lines. No offense to Calle Jarnkrok, but he's definitely a third line option (though a good one), and Bonino, Sissons, Hartman aren't exactly bringing a deft scoring touch. I could be wrong here, but it seems like boosting TOI for their best forwards would be a good strategy for this team.

    I think worst case scenario with Forsberg you get 30-35 or so with the likelihood of a positive plus-minus and maybe .5 PIM / game. With Rantanen I would expect 25-40 without the same likelihood of good plus-minus, yet similar PIM. Forsberg is right in the middle of his prime years at 24, while Rantanen will turn 22 in about a month. It's pretty close comparing these two, but I would take Forsberg right now and hope the usage improves for top F in Nashville.
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    Default Re: Filip Forsberg vs. Mikko Rantanen -- Keep 1

    Thanks guys...looks like I'm gonna stick with my gut and roll with my guy Filthy Filip.

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