Revising my Rasmus Dahlin prediction for this season

[fungchen3]

Initially, I felt Dahlin was going to be a standout rookie, scoring between 40-44 points as an 18 year old D in the NHL.
However, I've revising my prediction to say (if he's healthy and plays a full 82), he'll score 54 points this season.
Yep, I said it. The kid is going to knock people's sock's off, and could even break 55.
But I'm saying 54 on the nose... 14g, 40 apples.

[HRM Fantasy Fan]

I will say, 32. And I think that would be a monster season for him.

[Dover]

It would be amazing if he gets 50+pts but I see him more around 35... we’ll see!

[JaysFan]

Initially, I felt Dahlin was going to be a standout rookie, scoring between 40-44 points as an 18 year old D in the NHL.
However, I've revising my prediction to say (if he's healthy and plays a full 82), he'll score 54 points this season.
Yep, I said it. The kid is going to knock people's sock's off, and could even break 55.
But I'm saying 54 on the nose... 14g, 40 apples.

What's has led to you to this projection? Just curious what changed

[Starvin Marvin]

I say he lands in the 30 point range.

[Wonko]

As fantastic as your prediction is, I am not buying it quite yet. My original prediction was 35ish points and I am sticking with that. Everything else is gravy for Dahlin owners.

[Shake]

Initially, I felt Dahlin was going to be a standout rookie, scoring between 40-44 points as an 18 year old D in the NHL.
However, I've revising my prediction to say (if he's healthy and plays a full 82), he'll score 54 points this season.
Yep, I said it. The kid is going to knock people's sock's off, and could even break 55.
But I'm saying 54 on the nose... 14g, 40 apples.

Fung,

I don't disagree, nor do I agree. I don't really have a guess on the amount of points he'll score. But I'm curious as to what's made you revise your prediction? Have you seen something in camp from him since you first made your initial prediction?

You may very well be right. Having Eichel fully healthy will help too, plus a growing game from Middlestadt. I'm still a bit worried about their wingers.

[als_revenge]

55 assumes 1PP presumably, and I'm not sure that happens. 35 points seems more reasonable to me. He's 18 and a D....

[butch]

I drafted him in a dynasty and a keeper and I'm not expecting big things from him for a few seasons but I'd be willing to surprised .

[fungchen3]

What's has led to you to this projection? Just curious what changed

Fung,

I don't disagree, nor do I agree. I don't really have a guess on the amount of points he'll score. But I'm curious as to what's made you revise your prediction? Have you seen something in camp from him since you first made your initial prediction?

You may very well be right. Having Eichel fully healthy will help too, plus a growing game from Middlestadt. I'm still a bit worried about their wingers.

I watched what he did in the SEL and was amazed. Based on that, the pedigree, the size, and his play in the WJC, I pegged him for 40-44 right from jump. However, after watching his arrival in Buffalo with a microscope, I now believe he is going to do something special that is rarely done these days - a young D absolutely shattering expectations. Here's why:

1. I am fully convinced he gets PP1 duty out of the gate. If not on day 1, he will soon.

2. After watching him in prospects camp, and training camp so far, it's not only his skills that are jaw-dropping, but his instincts for the game. Every decision he makes is generally perfect.

3. He will be a goal scoring threat, not just a sauce machine.

4. His learning curve is well past other defensemen his age. The scouts and hockey people who said, "He is a D version of McDavid and Matthews caliber players" were correct. He's "different."

5. The city of Buffalo has already fallen in love with this kid and it's in the team's best interest to ride that wave and put him in positions to succeed (PP1).

6. I think he will figure out the rest of the league quickly, and once he's flying on all cylinders, watch out.

7. I think the Sabres as a whole will be improved, exciting and full of life - similar to the Matthews rookie Leafs 2 years ago. And Dahlin will be a massive catalyst in this.

[JaysFan]

I watched what he did in the SEL and was amazed. Based on that, the pedigree, the size, and his play in the WJC, I pegged him for 40-44 right from jump. However, after watching his arrival in Buffalo with a microscope, I now believe he is going to do something special that is rarely done these days - a young D absolutely shattering expectations. Here's why:

1. I am fully convinced he gets PP1 duty out of the gate. If not on day 1, he will soon.

2. After watching him in prospects camp, and training camp so far, it's not only his skills that are jaw-dropping, but his instincts for the game. Every decision he makes is generally perfect.

3. He will be a goal scoring threat, not just a sauce machine.

4. His learning curve is well past other defensemen his age. The scouts and hockey people who said, "He is a D version of McDavid and Matthews caliber players" were correct. He's "different."

5. The city of Buffalo has already fallen in love with this kid and it's in the team's best interest to ride that wave and put him in positions to succeed (PP1).

6. I think he will figure out the rest of the league quickly, and once he's flying on all cylinders, watch out.

7. I think the Sabres as a whole will be improved, exciting and full of life - similar to the Matthews rookie Leafs 2 years ago. And Dahlin will be a massive catalyst in this.

Thanks! Where do you think he should be drafted in a multicat keep 5 (so first pick is 61st player off the board)?

Do you expect stout hits and blks or might he be light on hits like a Krug?

[RizzeeDizzee]

For the record, in the last 35 years there's been one defenseman who posted over 50 points in his age 18 season - Phil Housley 26 years ago. Of course there've only been nine 18 year olds who played 70+ games as a rookie since 1974-75, so the odds aren't as remote as it would seem. But I'll still take the under on this one.

[JaysFan]

For the record, in the last 35 years there's been one defenseman who posted over 50 points in his age 18 season - Phil Housley 26 years ago. Of course there've only been nine 18 year olds who played 70+ games as a rookie since 1974-75, so the odds aren't as remote as it would seem. But I'll still take the under on this one.

Very true, I think Dobber gives him 10 or 15% odds of hitting 50.

Sergachev got 40 as a teenager (not an 18 yr old tho) while not getting PP1 time and without the pedigree of Dahlin.

If he clicks on that PP with Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart and, (Middlestat?) 50 isn't out of the realm of possibility.

[fungchen3]

Thanks! Where do you think he should be drafted in a multicat keep 5 (so first pick is 61st player off the board)?

Do you expect stout hits and blks or might he be light on hits like a Krug?

Keep 5 is tough - really depends on how patient you are willing to be. But, I see Dahlin ending up the full-meal deal like Hedman... it's just a matter of "when." I think he is going to soar out of the gate and, while not coming close to his peak for another few years, I don't think there's going to be a traditional 3, 4, 5 year window for this kid to boom.

[fungchen3]

For the record, in the last 35 years there's been one defenseman who posted over 50 points in his age 18 season - Phil Housley 26 years ago. Of course there've only been nine 18 year olds who played 70+ games as a rookie since 1974-75, so the odds aren't as remote as it would seem. But I'll still take the under on this one.

Rizz

True points.

But, in the last 35 years, how many defensemen burst onto the scene as heralded as Dahlin? He's been unanimously branded "generational" and the consensus is there hasn't been a defenseman this great in the draft since Potvin in 1973. The stuff Dahlin does right now is beyond what Karlsson, Hedman, etc. did at their age. The more I watch him, the more I'm convinced he's a special, special player. His confidence, composure, skills and instincts for an 18 year old are literally off-the-charts. As a 19 year old, Doughty scored 59 points, and at 18, Dahlin is more mature (and dynamic) than Doughty at 19, IMO.

I rarely, if ever, go ballsy with projections. I'm usually the "reign in back in" guy. But, I'm willing to go out on a limb for this dude.