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Thread: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

  1. #16
    DusterDave's Avatar
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    Big Daddy

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    I have a question regarding the FAAB set up and I thought it would be best to ask it in this thread since it is the expert league.

    I was of the understanding that it was a weekly set up where you can only add free agents on a Sunday night and they would appear on your roster the next day and then that was your full roster for that week. No adds/drops throughout the week? This doesn?t seem to be the case as I tried dropping/adding someone just to try out the process and yahoo said the claim would be made and affect my lineup by tomorrow.

    Also, is the $100 budget for all season long or does it reset weekly?

    Thanks. Hope it is okay that I posted in here.

  2. #17
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    The Wolverine

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by DusterDave View Post
    I have a question regarding the FAAB set up and I thought it would be best to ask it in this thread since it is the expert league.

    I was of the understanding that it was a weekly set up where you can only add free agents on a Sunday night and they would appear on your roster the next day and then that was your full roster for that week. No adds/drops throughout the week? This doesn?t seem to be the case as I tried dropping/adding someone just to try out the process and yahoo said the claim would be made and affect my lineup by tomorrow.

    Also, is the $100 budget for all season long or does it reset weekly?

    Thanks. Hope it is okay that I posted in here.
    The reason the waiver processing date is showing as tomorrow is because you just drafted and that is the standard post-draft waiver date. From tomorrow, those dates will automatically reset to our setup, which is on Monday. If you put in a claim tonight, for example, it will still be processed on Monday, not tomorrow. This is the only day of the week when waiver bids/claims are processed, but you can drop a player at any time. If you bid on a player for next Monday, that money will come off your total budget available ($100 for the whole season) even if the season hasn't started (note: managers in this league have already made claims/bids that were processed yesterday). Claims are processed on Mondays (overnight Sunday) and the player(s) will appear on your roster on the same Monday, to be used that night if required.

  3. #18
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    Big Daddy

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Awesome. Thank you very much for the detailed response. I appreciate it.

  4. #19
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    The Wolverine

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    What does everyone else think of their drafts?

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    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Overall - I'm happy. I think my team is balanced and competitive.

    Lord of the Rinks:
    Vincent Trocheck Fla - C
    Dylan Larkin Det - C
    Jonathan Toews Chi - C
    Mikael Backlund Cgy - C
    Elias Pettersson Van - C
    Jamie Benn Dal - C,LW
    Pierre-Luc Dubois Cls - C,LW
    Max Pacioretty VGK - LW
    Milan Lucic Edm - LW
    Valentin Zykov Car - LW,RW
    Jakub Voracek Phi - RW
    Tom Wilson Was - RW
    James Neal Cgy - RW
    Alex Tuch VGK - RW
    Josh Anderson Cls - RW
    Shayne Gostisbehere Phi - D
    Tyson Barrie Col - D
    Jeff Petry Mon - D
    Jacob Trouba Wpg - D
    Thomas Chabot Ott - D
    Mike Green Det - D
    Filip Hronek Det - D
    Frederik Andersen Tor - G
    Antti Raanta Ari - G
    Jacob Markstrom Van - G
    Linus Ullmark Buf - G
    2012 DobberHockey Hall of Fame - Player's Category

  6. #21
    temek's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Last Resort

    C - Eichel, Stamkos, Zibanejad, Kadri
    LW - M.Tkachuk, Hoffman, Meier, Panik
    RW - Kessel, Boeser, Palmieri, Puljujarvi
    D - Burns, Carlson, Edler, Vatanen, Chychrun, Spurgeon
    G - Murray, Lundqvist
    BN - Stepan, Kesler, Grubauer, Domingue, Sparks

    I like drafting in the middle so I was very happy with the 7th pick and it would also place me in a good spot to nab one of the top Ds in the 1st round and just maybe get a good forward in the 2nd round. I have previously been a big proponent of drafting 2 top-end goalies early(first 4-5 rounds or so), but I have moved towards drafting goalies later recently. Goalies have always been pretty volatile and difficult to project, but the last 2 seasons were especially unpredictable. As a result of that I have decided to move more towards team-based drafting and more of throw 7 darts and hope you get 3-4 hits type of approach when it comes to drafting goalies. In this league specifically I also decided to punt GAA although it wouldn't even surprise me if my team ends up mid-table in GAA even when I am trying to punt the category. I also moved D down a little bit on my rankings and C up a little bit and you can already see that in the draft as I can't even remember the last time I used two picks on centers in the first four rounds.

    1. (7) Brent Burns (SJ - D)

    I didn't want to pick goalie and didn't think forwards I would have considered would be available so that left D as the only realistic choice. I wanted Burns, but Hedman/Karlsson would have been fine too.

    2. (18) Jack Eichel (Buf - C)

    I was hoping I'd get little lucky and one of Hall, Benn or Pastrnak would drop here, but all went before so I had to scramble and look at my backup options. I was punting GAA so Andersen was the top goalie on my rankings and I'd probably have to pick him here if I wanted to. In the end I decided to wait on goalies and I was pretty sure the best D on my rankings, S.Jones, would be available at my next pick so I went with the best forward available in Eichel.

    3. (31) Steven Stamkos (TB - C)

    I did think about S.Jones or maybe a goalie here, but Stamkos was still available a bit surprisingly so went with an another C.

    4. (42) Matt Murray (Pit - G)

    I really would have liked to get S.Jones here, but goalies I liked were starting to get little thin so decided to pick Murray here. Solid 1G especially as with the strategy to punt GAA as PIT should provide plenty of wins although SVS/GP ratio will likely be fairly poor.

    5. (55) Phil Kessel (Pit - RW)

    Just missed out on S.Jones by a few picks which was unfortunate, but waiting this long was probably too greedy anyway. I had 2 C already so definitely wanted a winger and went with the best available in Kessel.

    6. (66) John Carlson (Was - D)

    I did consider Pacioretty and Aho as well, but wanted another top D to go with Burns so ended up going with Carlson. By this point most of my picks have been pretty low on hits including Carlson so I'd have to keep that in mind and try to pick players with better hit totals later on to compensate.

    7. (79) Matthew Tkachuk (Cgy - LW)

    Wingers were the biggest need at this point and preferably with solid hit totals so Tkachuk was a good fit there. I did think about Hornqvist too, but players in early 30s are bit riskier picks and I had 1 RW already and no LW so LW was slightly preferable here.

    8. (90) Brock Boeser (Van - RW)

    I had Boeser as one of my targets in R6 so was bit surprised to see him drop here. Happy to pick another high-scoring winger, but he's another player with pretty low hit totals so I would really have to get good hits totals from some later players. This also meant I probably should leave 1-2 D spots open for hits specialists if necessary so this pushed me towards waiting little bit on Ds for now.

    9. (103) Kyle Palmieri (NJ - RW)

    I would definitely have picked Dubois if he didn't go few picks earlier. Backstrom was technically the BPA and I was little surprised he slided this far down. I had two centers already though and I was pretty sure I could draft 2-3 centers I liked later at good spots so passed on him. I wanted hits now so went with Palmieri who was one the highest ranked players left anyway.

    10. (114) Mike Hoffman (Fla - LW,RW)

    I kept an eye on the remaining goalies available and both Price and Lundqvist were still available so decided to wait one more round. Atkinson was slightly higher rated on my rankings, but I wanted to balance the wings so went with Hoffman instead.

    11. (127) Henrik Lundqvist (NYR - G)

    I really needed goalie and getting one of Lundqvist/Price this late was probably a bit lucky already. Lundqvist is a very solid choice for punt-GAA strategy anyway as he should be peppered with shots against and get okay amount of wins as NYR shouldn't be an absolute disaster like some of the really bad teams. I would probably need to get some backups from top teams to get some extra wins though. Pre-draft I was hoping I could get Saros somewhere around R13-R15, but he went a bit surprisingly in R8(seems like him going that early was a mistake though).

    12. (138) Mika Zibanejad (NYR - C)

    Every season there are few players in the mid-late rounds I seem to end up in nearly every team and Zibanejad seems like he'll be one of those guys this season especially as I tend to draft C later in the draft. I also considered RNH, but getting 3rd C was preferable and Zibanejad is likely to produce more hits.

    13. (151) Philipp Grubauer (Col - G)

    I wanted a 3rd potentially good goalie as a cover for my starters as expecting both my starting goalies to perform solidly would be pretty optimistic. First 2 goalie picks can easily fail as happened last season with my goalie duo of Allen/Darling and that completely sunk my team last season. I was also considering picking Weber here, but felt an extra goalie cover was more important.

    14. (162) Nazem Kadri (Tor - C)

    Kadri definitely lost value with Tavares coming in, but he should still get more icetime than a typical 3rd line center. It also looks like TOR will move into a more typical PP unit time-split and Kadri has a spot in the 1st PP unit at least for now so I feel he's being little undervalued right now. I was also thinking about Mantha and Edler here, but thought there would be more wingers available late in draft than centers that I liked and Edler should be available with my next pick.

    15. (175) Alexander Edler (Van - D)

    My team was still lacking in hits and had only 2 dmen so far so Edler was a good fit there. Mantha was also still available and it was more or less a coin flip here.

    16. (186) Timo Meier (SJ - LW)

    Mantha was taken and at least one of the D I considered would probably last to the next round at least so went with Meier. Meier has always been a solid SOG+Hits producer so multicat upside is there if he ever gets to even 50+ pts range. More of a hopeful flyer than expecting him to break through, but opportunity might be there for Meier.

    17. (199) Derek Stepan (Ari - C)

    I didn't really need another center, but Stepan was by far the best player available on my list and didn't want to let him slip to anyone else. I was also considering picking one of the remaining starter/platoon goalies here, but decided to go with Stepan.

    18. (210) Sami Vatanen (NJ - D)
    19. (223) Richard Panik (Ari - LW,RW)
    20. (234) Jakob Chychrun (Ari - D)
    21. (247) Ryan Kesler (Anh - C)
    22. (258) Louis Domingue (TB - G)
    23. (271) Jesse Puljujarvi (Edm - RW)
    24. (282) Jared Spurgeon (Min - D)
    25. (295) Garret Sparks (Tor - G)


    Rest of the draft was nothing special and I just filled out the roster with few dmen and wingers and many of these picks might find themselves on the waivers soon enough. Kesler has potential to be top100 player in this format if he can jump back to 16-17 level so thought he was worth using a IR spot for the time being. Selected a couple goalies from top teams although Sparks might not even make the team, but I am not a fan of McElhinney at all. Panik could have some value if last season's usage of a 1st line wing with 1st PP unit spot continues as 45 pts with 200 hits would be solid numbers for a depth winger. Puljujarvi is a typical late round upside pick and could find himself on waivers pretty soon. I probably should have made getting PIT backup(s) more of a priority after picking Murray and it would have only taken two picks in R20+ to do so anyway so hopefully missing out on them doesn't come back to haunt me.

  7. #22
    temek's Avatar
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    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Projected standings

    Team Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    Last Resort 56 16 72
    Yellow Dogs 52 19 71
    Kofax TBD 45 25 70
    The Jobbers 39 22 61
    Lonny Bohonos Magic 44 16 60
    Horny for Hedman 37 22 59
    Lord of the Rinks 38 21 59
    Mario's Team 28 28 56
    holypuck 33 22 55
    Monster Manthas 25 24 49
    Han's Labyrinth 32 14 46
    Bench Warmers 39 5 44

    Just in general my skater projections have had some predictive value usually, but goalie projections have been nearly useless last two season so I wouldn't place much stock into the goalie projections.

    Projections suggest it's going to be a pretty competitive league and even my team is just barely at the top due to my GAA-punting strategy so we'll see how that works. Yellow Dogs, holypuck, Han's Labyrinth and Bench Warmers aren't projected to hit 164 GP with their goalies so those teams goalie projections are likely bit underestimated as 2 of the 3 goalie categories are volume stats(W,SV).

  8. #23
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    Dobber Sports Demi-God

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Two years ago, a 7-round opening missed-draft auto-draft had me finish 7th (out of PRO qualification) in a Dobber Conference-level league.
    Last year, I managed to qualify the hard way, finishing 1st overall in my league (Campbell? Wales?)

    I managed that win on the strength of drafting D-heavy with value-drafting goalies.
    This style usually works GREAT if there's 1, 2, or 3 lesser-keen GMs... because value-goalies are left on the table.
    It does NOT work so great in a fully-keen league: especially one with WEEKLY starts. (In RHRS, at least I can spot-add back-up goalies when I see H2H matches coming)
    So I was (too) bound & determined to GET, MY, GOALIES!


    Off & running on my DobberPRO team (drafted Sept20th, ten days ahead of RHRS).

    1-9: Erik Karlsson. In this six-cat league (with HIT, but not PIM), there are three elite D... and they start to go near the end of 1st round... which means I'd better draft one pre-turn, not after. Sure enough, this was smart. Burns went at 7, then Hedman at 11.

    2-16: Patrik Laine. In this format, getting big G/SOG is critical on top end of draft. Laine should also bring great PPP and +/-. I needed this to balance out Karlsson, who may not put up huge SOG. And... I mean, how can anybody NOT want to own this guy!!!





    3-33: Tuukka Rask. I don't like drafting goalies high... but in "weekly lock", its hard to rally in goalie starts. I rostered 3 quality goalies last year, overpaced at G, and was all set when a starter went down. It was critical to my 1st place finish and I've seen it decimate teams to relegation. This year, I simply want to feel out the league and avoid relegation, so I'll make sure I get my 164 starts. I target Atlantic goalies because TB/TOR/BOS/FLA get to feast on BUF/OTT/MON/DET. I really would've liked to compliment Rask with Halak... but Halak went way sooner than I hoped - fortunately, I've got enough goalies.

    4-40: MA Fleury. Goalie #2. Immediately, this puts me behind pace on high-end skater stats. This may be a problem, but, again, I'll settle for 5th-8th place so long as my goaltending is very good in 6/3-cat set-up.

    5-57: Anze Kopitar. Solid all-around center who I also took in RHRS around about same mark. Should have solid stats again.

    6-64: Mitchell Marner. I took him in RHRS too. Expecting big things. RW2.

    7-81: OEL. He's pretty good in this format and I think he has a bounce-back year.

    8-88: Brayden Point. Very good young forward. About par-value at this pick.

    9-105: Roberto Luongo. I was the first team to have 3 goalies... and I made this pick because the teams inside me at the turn were laying off goalies. I *HATE* leaving value on the board for ANYONE. Sometimes, yes, I will hurt my own team. And, in DobberTier leagues, the relegation is REAL - which means people may feel forced to trade for a goalie if they are falling down there. I also *LOVE* the Panthers upside this year. I suppose we'll never know if Lu was to go in the next six picks... but it was disheartening when they all laid off goalie drafts again.

    10-112: Sean Couturier. He's not going to be top30 fantasy player again... but maybe top 60. I'll take that.

    11-129: Carey Price. 4th goalie. Ugh. IDK, looking back... it's hard to justify this. Same theory as round 9... those damn slackers drafting at 10-11-12, we'll see how they do.

    12-136: Colin Miller. I'm not thrilled about this pick, but his advanced stats are really good and he does HIT and get PP time. With Schmidt out to start season, should get big TOI.

    13-153: Nino Niederreiter. TBH, IDK on this pick. Nino has always baffled me. Some expect him to bounce back and I started getting desperate because I had ZERO Left Wingers here... just could.not.find.one.

    14-160: Ryan O'Reilly. This should be a solid pick. ROR fell on pre-draft rank because of his Buffalo negative, which could flip from -20 to +20 with STL. Let's hope so.

    15-177: Anthony Mantha. Mantha is a young player I'm big on this year. With Zetterberg out, I expect him & Larkin to be PP1 and line1 all year. Hopefully he busts out to 55-60pts and big Hits. I do worry about +/-.
    I decided to name my team after him.



    16-184: Jon Drouin. Well, back to my hopes. I was SO high on him last year... I'll invest again. Two years ago Larkin burned me... and I vowed not to make that mistake again. I should've Larkin-ed twice, now I'll Drouin-twice.

    17-203: Nikita Zadorov. Ugh, looking back, 17th round is way to high for a pure HITS investment... but I had abused my D-drafting.

    18-210: Patrick Marleau. So, then I compliment my over-HIT drafting with a non-HIT guy, hoping to recoup my Zadorov MINUS with Marleau's PLUS. Feels like I got ONE player with TWO picks. Awful.

    rd19: Erik Johnson. Great value, while healthy.
    rd20: Nick Bjugstad. Actually solid place to get a FLA top sixer.
    rd21: Zach Hyman. No PP1, so hope those complimentary points and pluses add up.
    rd22: Oliver Bjorkstrand. High on this kid, drafted him in RHRS at about same point.
    rd23: Michael Del Zotto. Well, he hits.
    rd24: Robby Fabbri. Already injured, ho-hum
    rd25: Micheal Ferland. Why do you spell your name E-A-L. I hate that. I've since replaced him.

    Overall - this draft was similar to the way Ebby Calvin Nuke Laloosh makes love...
    "a little bit all over the place".



    One of my poorer drafts ever - with no potential of a top 3 finish.
    Best case is that I flip a goalie or two to somebody desperately trying to avoid relegation.

    For now, I'll be scratching & clawing to a 7th or 8th place finish... if I can.
    Just a really bad draft... but it set the tone for a more focused attack on RHRS, ten days later.

  9. #24
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    Dobber Sports Superstar

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    After winning the expert league Pengwin7 wasn't in, albeit in a tie that came about on the final day (thankfully the top two from each Pro Division was promoted eliminating the need for any tie-breaker!), I was happy to find myself in the expert league.

    Again, similar to Pengwin7, my ultimate goal is to stick and not get relegated! And temek's projections give me hope I should at least find myself sitting in the middle of the pack if not making a run of it.

    I ended up with the 5 spot, which I was ok with, as I'm drafting near the top while not having to wait exceptionally long before being able to pick a second time. I was flanked by Lord of the Rinks at 4 and Jobbers at 6, which is important, because I was yelling at them a couple of times throughout the draft.

    1-5: Sidney Crosby - I found the 5-spot tough, as I wasn't entirely sure who to target. I expected McD, OV, Kuch and Crosby to go 1-4 so I found myself thinking I should target a D, and I think Hedman would have been my choice as I'm a little leary of how Burns and Karlsson might affect each other and I like to be safe with an early pick (mind you I highly doubt Burns or Karlsson will see decreased production, but there was just something I didn't like there). I was surprised to have Crosby fall and switched gears off the bat.

    2-20: Brad Marchand - I was hoping to target one of the top goalies here, and was extatic to see Hellebuyck dropping, only to have him sniped by Jobbers right in front of me (#1). That was the end of my top teir for G, so I decided to wait and hope Andersen or Holtby would last 8 picks. I took the top winger on the board in Marchand as I remember last year the wing thinned out pretty quick. Pretty happy with my top 2 selections.

    3-29: Drew Doughty - So Andersen went right after my Marchand with Holtby a pick later and I wasn't extatic with the goalies left at this point so I decided to grab one of my favourite defenseman who contributes across the board in Doughty, who became my teams namesake.

    4-44: Devan Dubnyk - There was a large run of goaltenders as I awaited my next pick; Rask, Quick, Jones, Fleury, Murray Gibson, so it was definitely time to take a goalie and I was happy to grab Dubnyk here. Although not in love with Minnesota as an ageing team, I do think they are good defensively and Dubnyk is a relatively consistent starter who I rode to victory last year.

    5-53: Artemi Panarin - I wanted to focus on points early and worry about any peripherals I was lacking later in the draft Panarin fit the bill and also being an elite winger. I was fairly happy with how things were going up to this point, but figured I needed to target some more D with my upcoming picks.

    6-68: Jake Allen - All the D I was targeting were disappearing quickly, culminated by the last one in my Queue, Dumba, once again by Jobbers, right in front of me (#2). I scrambled here an ultimately took my second goalie. I don't love or even like Allen, but St. Louis as a team should be decent, so I figured I'd have to target his backups as well given his injury history (I managed to nab Chad Johnson, but missed on Husso who was a waiver pickup by temek, a miss by me). The first pick I'm not all that happy about. A RW like Voracek who went right after may have been better.

    7-77: Torey Krug - I needed to take a defenseman here, and Krug was the call. I considered OEL or Ristolainen as better options, but as much as I hate the +/- stat, I find it sinks my team more often than not when I ignore it, so part of my strategy was to focus on players from teams likely to be on the + side of goal differential. Far from an exact science though.

    8-92: Morgan Rielly - I was still thinking D here but was waffling on the pick. Barrie was at the forefront of my mind, but ultimately the talk of Toronto's PP1 and Rielly having a spot on it plus my slight bias towards the ML, I was happy to select Rielly. Barrie went with the next pick.

    9-101: Viktor Arvidsson - RW was the target at this point, and naturally, my queue of Keller, Radulov and Kovalchuk disappear right in front of me. I had to pick one though, and Arvidsson was the scramble selection. I'm hoping he was the top RW at this point, but I don't love the pick. Hoping he continues to perform on a strong Nashville team.

    10-116: Ryan Ellis - At this point I noticed Backstrom remained on the board, and not having a second C yet, I was ecstatic watching him continue to fall down the board, with Hoffman as a backup plan. Hoffman goes at 114 followed by Backstrom at 115 by the Jobbers (#3). Scrambling I ended up with Ellis. I didn't love the remaining C at this position nor the RW, so I took another D in Ellis.

    11-125: Jayden Schwartz - RW was still the target, but I didn't love any of the options at this spot. I considered Atkinson (who went right after) and Konecny and Simmonds, but I had small concerns with each, so I picked Schwartz, who obviously has concerns of his own, but when he's in the lineup, he produces. I love my 3LW at this point, happy with my 4D, ok with my 2G and realize I need to focus on C and RW over the next few rounds.

    12-140: Sam Reinhart - Was completely focused on RW at this point, and Reinhart may be a round or two early here, but I like him as a breakout target this year and needed a RW.

    13-149: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - I was entirely focused on Galchenyuk with this pick, but he was taken two picks in front me (thankfully not Jobbers for once). I liked some of the D on the board, but I was sitting with 4 strong D already so I picked RNH. I like him as a player, it's just hard to count on him for a full season, and with Schwartz already in the fold, I was hesitant to add another potential injury. Ultimately I like the pick, probably even better than Galchenyuk.

    14-156: Nico Hischier - I was targeting another C as I liked the value available. O'Reilly, Johansen, Kadri were all in the queue, and all taken with picks 4, 3, 2 just ahead of me. I swore Jobbers was going to take Hischier, but I lucked out with him grabbing a defenseman.

    15-173: James Reimer - Not sure I love this pick, but I don't trust Allen to be workhorse and I like Florida as a team. With an ageing Luongo, I thought this was a good bet to add some starts and hopefully W.

    16-188: Bo Horvat - Looking for a C here who can score some goals with some PPP, Horvat should be able to give me 20 and 10-15.

    17-197: Hampus Lindholm - Was looking for a D who could add some hits.

    18-212: Mats Zuccarello - Needed a RW and again looking for PPP potential. I acknowledged the minus here but thought I was in good enough shape to absorb it. Looking back, not my favourite pick as Buchnevich might have been the better choice.

    19-221: Jakob Silfverberg - Again looking at RW.
    20-236: Dion Phaneuf - Solid D who will add to hit totals.
    21-245: Nick Schmaltz - Decent winger with upside at this point in the draft.
    22-260: Tyler Johnson - Decent production hopefully with some upside albeit with injury risk.
    23-269: David Backes - Mainly looking for some hits here.
    24-284: Kevin Labanc - Probably should have taken Chad Johnson and Ville Husso with the last two picks instead of just Johnson.
    25-293: Chad Johnson - Allen Handcuff, see above.

    Overall I was happy with my draft. I felt like I was getting sniped left and right, but going back through it, it wasn't too bad other than 2 or 3 instances where I was really flustered. I think overall it was just due to each and every manager having a game plan and being well informed, making it a challenging one. I feel like I have a solid lineup at each position with solid stat coverage, which should at least keep me in the middle of the pack, pending a devastating injury which would likely have to happen to my goaltending. Drafting is only half the battle though, with another part being luck in hitting on a few picks and then using the waiver wire to your advantage.

  10. #25
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    Dobber Sports Blue-Chipper

    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Projected standings

    Team Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    Last Resort 56 16 72
    Yellow Dogs 52 19 71
    Kofax TBD 45 25 70
    The Jobbers 39 22 61
    Lonny Bohonos Magic 44 16 60
    Horny for Hedman 37 22 59
    Lord of the Rinks 38 21 59
    Mario's Team 28 28 56
    holypuck 33 22 55
    Monster Manthas 25 24 49
    Han's Labyrinth 32 14 46
    Bench Warmers 39 5 44

    Just in general my skater projections have had some predictive value usually, but goalie projections have been nearly useless last two season so I wouldn't place much stock into the goalie projections.

    Projections suggest it's going to be a pretty competitive league and even my team is just barely at the top due to my GAA-punting strategy so we'll see how that works. Yellow Dogs, holypuck, Han's Labyrinth and Bench Warmers aren't projected to hit 164 GP with their goalies so those teams goalie projections are likely bit underestimated as 2 of the 3 goalie categories are volume stats(W,SV).
    How do you project the standings? I'd like to do it for the ADAMS division!
    12 team Keeper League.
    25 man roster, 5 man bench, 2 prospects, keep 9. Must ice 4D, 1 Goalie
    Skaters 1pt G/A,
    Goalies .05pts per save, 1pts SO, .75pts per win -.25 for GA

    Forwards
    Crosby, Malkin, Seguin, Eichel, Backstrom, Svechnikov, Stone, Meier, Perron, Voracek, Wilson, Pearson, Vrana, E. Stall, Pajeau

    Defence
    Hedman, Klingberg, Letang, Yandle

    Goalie
    Bobrovsky

    Bench
    Ritchie (G), Zucker, Guentzel, Neal, Ekblad (D)


    Prospects
    Zegras, Kaprisov

  11. #26
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    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by DAAKS View Post
    How do you project the standings? I'd like to do it for the ADAMS division!
    He does it with his own made player projections.
    Associate Editor for DobberHockey (Wednesdays). Click that Ramblings button on the the menu bar!
    (No I don't have a hockey problem...)

  12. #27
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    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Team name is Horny for Hedman

    C - B. Schenn, J. Pavelski, M. Barzal, P. Stastny
    LW - C. Kreider, A. Lee, B. Jenner, B. Tkachuk
    RW - B. Wheeler, P. Kane, M. Rantanen, P. Hornqvist
    D - V. Hedman, R. Pulock, C. Fowler, W. Butcher, T. Myers, B. Skjei
    G - S. Varlamov, P. Mrazek
    BN - D. Perron, T. Rattie, J. Halak, M. Subban, A. Khudobin
    IR/IR+ - S. Weber, C. Crawford, T. Jarry

    I'll start off by saying that this is one of the toughest leagues I have played in. Everybody here knows their stuff. Saying that, sometimes you have to reach for players if you really believe in them because these managers won't let them slip down very far from where their true value is.

    I had the 11th pick and wanted to prioritize three things in this draft - 1) Do not take a goalie early, 2) Do not take a goalie early, 3) Do not take a goalie early. Last season, I took Price and Murray with my first two picks and had to scrape and claw my way out of relegation status all year long. So this season, I hoped that one of the top 3 defensemen would be there at 11 and then I would build around that.

    1. (11) Victor Hedman (TB - D)
    I was expecting one of Karlsson or Hedman to fall to 11 and since Karlsson went at 9, Hedman it is! There was a brief thought about taking Mackinnon or Wheeler in this spot but I figured I would let horrofan's auto-draft rankings decide my fate on that choice.

    2. (14) B. Wheeler (WPG - C,RW)
    As per above, HF went with Mackinnon and Tavares so naturally I took Wheeler. I'm expecting a little regression this year but still expecting 80+ from the Jets captain.

    3. (35) Patrick Kane (Chi - RW)
    This was the pivotal point where I would have to commit to my original strategy of not taking a goalie early. I saw a run developing but had to stay firm. I figured this was far enough for Kane and maybe he could return to dominance this season...

    4. (38) Brayden Schenn (StL - C)
    With 2 goalies taken back-to-back by HF, I decide on Schenn, who won't likely be there at my next pick, hoping that he can maintain his performance from last season and perhaps have a small uptick on the PP with the new additions (Maroon, O'Reilly) and a healthy Schwartz.

    5. (59) Mikko Rantanen (Col - RW)
    I was hoping that a defensemen would fall to this spot, maybe Seth Jones, but no such luck as he went 7 picks earlier. After Subban and Hamilton are also grabbed, I decided to shift my focus back to forwards. Rantanen may have some regression coming his way but I'm banking that it won't be much. The Avs are still a young team, maybe last year was just the beginning?

    6. (62) Joe Pavelski (SJ - C,RW)
    Little Joe was a regular top 30 pick in this league the last couple years but he wasn't very good last year relative to his draft position. I'm hoping the addition of Karlsson can help reinvigorate him to a top 30-40 ranking by year end.

    With work in the am, this post is to be continued...
    10 Team Yahoo H2H Keep 5 G, A, PPP, FOW, SOG, HITS, BLKS, W, GAA, SV, SV%
    C,C,LW,LW,RW,RW,F,F,D,D,D,D,G,G,BN,BN,BN,BN,BN,IR+ ,IR+
    Keepers:
    Makar, J. Hughes, T. Meier, K. Connor, Ovechkin

  13. #28
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    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    So going into last year I was pondering drafting for +/- which I usually ignore. Mostly because I cannot pass up counting stats no matter which team they are from. But then I thought that the league would likely be close overall with close category totals and this meant that punting +/- in order to fill up the other cats would give an advantage. In weaker leagues there is always that guy who knows his stuff and you need to score 12's just to keep up but not in this league because no one person is dominating in that fashion. And I was kind of right except that my +/- was good: 10 points but it became apparent in the second week that I was going to finish last in hits. I don't run spreadsheets or projections and I had no idea my hits were that bad. So I punted hits but scored 12, 12, 10, 12 and 8 in goals, assists, +/-, PPP and SOG. Too bad about my goalies. So I debated punting hits on purpose this year as well but decided not to make that decision before the draft.

    As in other drafts I tried to take players with established floors near their floor rather than fliers near their ceiling.

    1.3 Kucherov. Having the 3rd pick I knew I was taking McDavid, Ovi or Kucherov. Already behind in hits but good in all other cats.

    2.22 Malkin and 3.27 Matthews. This happened last year as well. It seems like multi-catplayers, D and goalies are being targeted and high scoring centres slide. Stamkos was there too but Malkin is an animal if healthy and I am a Toronto fan by geography so I couldn't pass up Matthews. But with that Matthews pick the hits punt was on. I still tried to get some but it wasn't a priority.

    4.46 Bishop. Last year I picked 48 and Vaselevskiy went 47. The last early goalie I wanted.I was hoping for a good one here. Not sure if Bishop is it. Every time I drafta goalie a little part of me dies.

    5.51 Seth Jones. I like to get solid D. So I started with Jones. He fills up all the cats.

    6.70 Klingberg. Hoping for 60 points and 200 shots.

    7.75 Kuznetsov. One of those sliding centres but in the 7th round. 75-80points seems likely again. Given what I was thinking I couldn't pass him up again.

    8.94 Werenski. Just grabbing another scoring D. Hurt last year.

    9.99 Radulov. Partially a token hits grab, not that he's a monster. He does provide decent category coverage across the board.

    10.123 William Karlsson. If his shooting percentage is halved and he doesn't increase his shot volume or see increased PP scoring he likely falls right around here at the end of the year. Otherwise he was the 19th player by Yahoo's rating system last year.

    11.123 Giordano. Another mid-range hits guy. 200 shots. Should have strong PP role.

    12.142 DeBrincat. Was last year's 141st player by Yahoo. His /60 numbers were in line with Kane's. Likely to be better than this spot.

    13.147. Galchenyuk. Betting on new surroundings and positive regression.

    14.486 Elliott. Starter on a pretty good team. Sometimes a good goalie. I own him in 3 of 5 leagues drafted this year. I am not necessarily happy about that.

    15.171 Faulk. He still shoots and hits. So far it seems that Hamilton and Faulk are sharing PP1. Hopefully a new coach will bring the +/- down.

    16.190. Eberle. Last year Yahoo had him 122nd. He may see more ice time. He's proven he has 65 points and 200 shots in him and he has a solid role.

    17.195. Darling. My own personal sleeper this year. It's been suggested that Peters' system kills goalies. Also Darling has come back fitter and motivated. We will see.

    18.214. Turris. Yahoo ranked 115th last year. He has it in him to be better than last year. Solid role and he's proven he can be better than this spot many times. Likely a good +/- too.

    About here I had to throw a bunch players into the queue and leave the draft. I wound up with several sleeper plays.

    19.219 Buchnevich. People who know more about hockey than I swear he's insanely talented. With a rebuild and a new coach I am hoping for the full Tarasenko/Kuznetsov. I have him in three of the deeper leagues I have drafted this year. Yahoo's 17-18 rank was 222.

    20.238 Sprong. At the time he was playing with Crosby. Apparently he is now on the 4thl line but he is cheap, killed in the AHL last year and is the kind of player that could still slot in with Crosby and do interesting things.

    21.243 DeSmith. Read an article in the preceding days that he was winning the back-up battle. Good team. Murray has been shaky and hurt with a short track record.

    22.262 Vrana. The last four are all young talented players with deployment upside. If I hadn't been driving to work I might have taken different players.

    23.267 Bertuzzi.

    24.286 Yamamoto.


    25.291. Hinostroza.


    I only drafted 5 D and Jones is already hurt. I dropped Bertuzzi because I simply forgot IR+ existed. Coming down the back stretch in fantasy baseball had me focused on not being able to put day-to-day players on the DL. I have added Gustafsson, DeAngelo and Goligoski. We will see how long any of these last six players lasts.

    When it was done my first thought was "woof" but once I glanced at everyone's team I began to feel more optimistic. Everyone has some holes. We will see. Good luck.

  14. #29
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    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    I was surprised that Pengwin was drafting early goalies. I was waiting to see his value goalies this year.

    Stamkos and Kessel didn't seem like Temek picks either but they clearly fell. I thought I was going to wind up with Eichel in this draft and I was heartened/disappointed that Temek grabbed him. Although I am not sure that I don't like Malkin and Matthews more.

  15. #30
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    Default Re: 2018/19 Dobber Expert - Stanley League

    Quote Originally Posted by temek View Post
    Projected standings

    Team Skater pts Goalie pts Total pts
    Last Resort 56 16 72
    Yellow Dogs 52 19 71
    Kofax TBD 45 25 70
    The Jobbers 39 22 61
    Lonny Bohonos Magic 44 16 60
    Horny for Hedman 37 22 59
    Lord of the Rinks 38 21 59
    Mario's Team 28 28 56
    holypuck 33 22 55
    Monster Manthas 25 24 49
    Han's Labyrinth 32 14 46
    Bench Warmers 39 5 44

    Just in general my skater projections have had some predictive value usually, but goalie projections have been nearly useless last two season so I wouldn't place much stock into the goalie projections.

    Projections suggest it's going to be a pretty competitive league and even my team is just barely at the top due to my GAA-punting strategy so we'll see how that works. Yellow Dogs, holypuck, Han's Labyrinth and Bench Warmers aren't projected to hit 164 GP with their goalies so those teams goalie projections are likely bit underestimated as 2 of the 3 goalie categories are volume stats(W,SV).
    Looking forward to once again doing everything I can to best the projections.
    -----------------

    LEAGUE: keeper -- 6 keepers per year, no farm; roto; 10 managers, 18-man rosters; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 4 D, 1 UTIL, 2 G, 5 Bench; limits of 99 games per skater position & 82 games per goalie position; daily roster moves; max 100 waiver wire transactions per year; scoring categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, PPP, SOG, DEF (points by d-men), W, GAA, SA%, and SV.

    ROSTER:

    C: Draisaitl* (LW), Dubois, Nelson
    LW: Svechnikov* (RW), Hagel
    RW: Kucherov*, Tarasenko, Wilson, Stone, Laine, Reinhart, P. Kane (IR)
    D: Fox*, Karlsson*, Chabot (IR), Faulk, Martinez
    G:: Vasilevskiy*, Vanecek, Adin, Knight (IR)

    * = 2023 keepers

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