Rank These Goalies!

[rooneypoo]

Full details on my roster and league settings are below.

Our keepers are due this Sunday, and I will be keeping Vasilevskiy, Karlsson, Ovechkin, Kucherov, Benn, and Tarasenko. Our 12-round draft takes place the next week, and I have the following picks: a 1st, a 3rd, a 4th, 2 5ths, a 6th, a 7th, one 9th, 10th, and 11th, and 2 12ths. Quality starting goalies are a bit of a scarcity in our league (historically, 15~ goalies will be kept), so here's the list of top 10 goalies I expect will be available for drafting:

Raanta
Rinne
Rask
Bishop
Hutton
Lundqvist
Smith
Elliott
Grubauer
Crawford

I'm anticipating that I'll have to use my 1st (pick 9) or 3rd (pick 21) to scoop up a good second goalie (there is often a run on goalies in round 2), since historically every GM in the league wants to have two good starters on their roster by the end of round 2 or 3. What goalies would you target, and with what picks? My other picks in the top half of the draft are #s 39, 48, 49, and 59. Mostly I'm thinking about being competitive for this year, but I'm also open to acquiring a potentially longer-term value asset.

[Seeds of Grapes]

Rask
Rinne (could easily be no. 1. Age is a concern)
Bishop
Raanta
Lundqvist
Smith
Elliott
Crawford (based on health uncertainty. If healthy, much higher)
Grubauer (for this year; as a third G in a keeper league, much higher)
Hutton

[4T2]

Rask
Rinne
Bishop
Raanta
Crawford
Smith
Lundqvist
Grubauer
Hutton
Elliott

I've got the unquestioned starters ranked higher as you don't need to be looking at keeper implications when it comes to your goaltending. With Vas, you should be set for the foreseeable future and I doubt you would ever keep 2G in a limited keeper like your league.

[rooneypoo]

Rask
Rinne (could easily be no. 1. Age is a concern)
Bishop
Raanta
Lundqvist
Smith
Elliott
Crawford (based on health uncertainty. If healthy, much higher)
Grubauer (for this year; as a third G in a keeper league, much higher)
Hutton

Thanks for this!

Strangely, when I run Fantasy Hockey Geek with my league settings and Dobber's 2018-2019 projections, Raanta comes out as the #1 goalie (and, in fact, player). I found that crazy strange, so it's good to see that I'm not alone in thinking that Rask and Rinne are both safer, better options.

[rooneypoo]

Rask
Rinne
Bishop
Raanta
Crawford
Smith
Lundqvist
Grubauer
Hutton
Elliott

I've got the unquestioned starters ranked higher as you don't need to be looking at keeper implications when it comes to your goaltending. With Vas, you should be set for the foreseeable future and I doubt you would ever keep 2G in a limited keeper like your league.

Thanks for this. It's interesting that you and Grapes both put Crawford, Smith, and Lundqvist in the middle of the pack. I think it's possible that one of Rask or Rinne will be there at pick #9, but I expect those two, plus Bishop and maybe Raanta will go in the 1st 2 rounds otherwise. But it does strike me as possible that at least one of Smith, Crawford, and Lundqvist could be available at pick 21.

[RizzeeDizzee]

Rask
Bishop
Rinne
Raanta
Crawford - if healthy
Smith
Elliott - I think he runs with the gig and Philly plays well
Grubauer - he becomes the #1 or at least 1A guy by Christmas
Lundqvist
Hutton

[parky777]

Thanks for this!

Strangely, when I run Fantasy Hockey Geek with my league settings and Dobber's 2018-2019 projections, Raanta comes out as the #1 goalie (and, in fact, player). I found that crazy strange, so it's good to see that I'm not alone in thinking that Rask and Rinne are both safer, better options.

I have had good success using FHG. However, when it comes to goalies the algorithm spits out some bizarre numbers some time. I think it is partly due to not being able to weight the GP correctly. I find, with G you are better to use the Dobber Guide, and look at the G “tiers” to determine relative value and placement. Otherwise FHG works great, especially if you are using “unusual” cats.

[LawMan]

Rinne --> bit of a wildcard longterm due to contract being up this season
Rask
Bishop
Lundqvist
Smith
Raanta --> solid SV% but bad team, needs to stay healthy to move up
Crawford --> huge wildcard due to health
Elliott
Hutton
Grubauer

[rooneypoo]

Rask
Bishop
Rinne
Raanta
Crawford - if healthy
Smith
Elliott - I think he runs with the gig and Philly plays well
Grubauer - he becomes the #1 or at least 1A guy by Christmas
Lundqvist
Hutton

That's a good looking list. I really need to find a way to avoid having to pick between Elliott, Grubauer, Lundqvist, and Hutton, because frankly they all make me nervous.

[rooneypoo]

I have had good success using FHG. However, when it comes to goalies the algorithm spits out some bizarre numbers some time. I think it is partly due to not being able to weight the GP correctly. I find, with G you are better to use the Dobber Guide, and look at the G “tiers” to determine relative value and placement. Otherwise FHG works great, especially if you are using “unusual” cats.

That's probably some good advice. I'll have to take those FHG scores/values with a grain of salt.

[rooneypoo]

Rinne --> bit of a wildcard longterm due to contract being up this season
Rask
Bishop
Lundqvist
Smith
Raanta --> solid SV% but bad team, needs to stay healthy to move up
Crawford --> huge wildcard due to health
Elliott
Hutton
Grubauer

Ideally, I'd take Saros in round 5 if I take Rinne, although I have a feeling there will be another GM in my league looking to pick up Saros if he sees me take Rinne. He'd rather frustrate me that do what's best for his own team, which I find hilarious, but what can you do.

If 14 goalies are kept, as I expect, that will leave 4 GMs with 2-3 goalies (so they're unlikely to draft one in the first 20 picks), 5 with 1 goalie (including me), and 1 with 0 goalies. Of those 5 other GMs, only 4 have any of the top 20 picks -- that's 4 picks before my pick #9, and another 5 before my pick #21. Presumably those 4 GMs with picks will be looking to pick up, collectively, 5-6 goalies early in the draft. So I should be able to either 1) take Rinne or Rask with pick 9 (if either is still there), or 2) proceed with some level on confidence that one of Bishop, Smith, Raanta, Crawford, or Lundqvist will available at pick 21, because it strikes me as likely that the max number of goalies that will go in the first 20 picks is 6, including me. My least favourite scenario would be to pass on a goalie with pick 9, then end up having to take, say, Lundqvist at 21.

Thanks for your thoughts, everyone! This really does help me to strategize.