Results 1 to 13 of 13

Thread: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

  1. #1
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Padawan

    Default Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Hey guys,

    Just looking for some advice on a potential draft strategy for the league I'll be taking part in this year. By advice, I'm looking for suggestions on a rough guideline on which positions to select and when. I don't know what position I pick from yet. I can provide the details of the pool though to hopefully make providing some suggestions a bit easier...

    Fantrax
    12 teams. 16 total players (5 F, 3D, 2G & 6 Reserve)
    No trades, but unlimited waive wire claims.

    Scoring:
    Scoring Group Scoring Category Points
    Skaters Assists (A) 3
    Skaters Goals (G) 4
    Skaters Hits (Hit) 0.25
    Skaters Short Handed Goals (SHG) 2
    Skaters Shots on Goal (SOG) 0.5
    Skaters Power Play Points (PPP) 1
    Goalies Assists (A) 3
    Goalies Goals Against (GA) -1
    Goalies Saves (SV) 0.25
    Goalies Shutouts (SHO) 5
    Goalies Wins (W) 5
    Thanks in advance!
    Yahoo, H2H Categories, 1 Year, 12 Teams
    2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 4BN

    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SHO


  2. #2
    newper114's Avatar
    newper114 is offline
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    8,601
    Rep Power
    45

    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    No trades wikes!!!

    Without knowing yet what position it's hard to say. Based on league setup looks like goalies are very valuable. Assists for goalies hmmm - not sure where to pull that stat from but do your research.

    Goals and sog makes goal scored valuable so ovechkin, laine, stamkos are good..

    I would typically go forward first but it depends where you pick if it's later in the round then probably grab a goalie
    18 team H2H Keeper League
    G/A/PPP/SHP/GWG/SOG/FOW/Hits&blks/W/GAA/SV/SV%
    play 4c/8w/6d/1G (2min start)/6 bench/
    C: Hughes, Zacha, Howden, compher, Tierney, Frederic
    W: Gaudreau, Schwartz, M.Tkachuk, Fabbri, Bratt, Yamamoto, Wahlstrom, Okposo, Heinen, M.Folingo, Hinostroza, Mcginn
    D: Hughes, Ceci, Pelech, oleksiak, Holden, Poolman
    G: Markstrom, Oettinger,
    P:Rossi,Bowers,Heponiemi,Kupari,Wise,Dorofeyev,Fir stov,Clarke,Fortin,holloway,Nygard,Aberg,Rasmussen ,Elynuik,M.Jones,Chlapik,Platzer,Bracco,Kuokkanen, Lind,Liljegren,J.Roy,Montembeault,Raaymakers,Woll, prosvetov,Larmi

  3. #3
    Rep Power
    50

    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Yeah - goalies are 20% of a starting roster but are worth far more than that in the standings. Vas, Gibson, or Hellebuyck should be targeted early.
    DobberHockey Senior Writer (columnist since 2012)
    Click here to read my weekly "Roos Lets Loose" columns, going live every Wednesday morning and consisting of a rotating schedule of a "forum buzz" column, a fantasy hockey mailbag, a tournament/poll, and an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters: https://dobberhockey.com/category/ho...key-rick-roos/

  4. #4
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Padawan

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Quote Originally Posted by newper114 View Post
    No trades wikes!!!

    Without knowing yet what position it's hard to say. Based on league setup looks like goalies are very valuable. Assists for goalies hmmm - not sure where to pull that stat from but do your research.

    Goals and sog makes goal scored valuable so ovechkin, laine, stamkos are good..

    I would typically go forward first but it depends where you pick if it's later in the round then probably grab a goalie
    Yeah I wish there were trades... but unfortunately this is how Fantrax operates their public cash leagues. Thanks for the advice!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by RizzeeDizzee View Post
    Yeah - goalies are 20% of a starting roster but are worth far more than that in the standings. Vas, Gibson, or Hellebuyck should be targeted early.
    I can understand grabbing Vas or Helle, but does Gibson really belong in their company?!
    Yahoo, H2H Categories, 1 Year, 12 Teams
    2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 4BN

    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SHO


  5. #5
    Moses's Avatar
    Moses is offline
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    4,242
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Genius

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    That is an interesting set up:

    Scoring Categories: (Points)
    Skaters - A (3), G (4), PIM (0.5), SHG (2), SOG (0.5), PPP (1)
    Goalies - A (3), GA (-1), PIM (0.5), SV (0.25), SHO (5), W (5)

    Weekly Starts:
    5 Forwards, 3 Defensemen, 2 Goalies

    I can't say I have any experience in something quite like this.

    2 shots on goal = 1 powerplay point? Hmm... A player that "Shoots and Scores!" looks to be valuable. Doesn't matter if they do it on the PP or not, but then, if you aren't on the powerplay your chances of scoring are less. We are getting into Fantasy Hockey Geek territory.

    This needs the FHG bat signal.

    - I said... "God damn this tablet is heavy!"

  6. #6
    Location
    Toronto
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Star

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Thanks for the holler, Moses -- good stuff.

    What a weird format. Let's tackle it!

    First off, this is a relatively shallow league with 16 player rosters and 12 teams. Let's keep that in mind because it means that only 192 players are owned.

    It's head-to-head.

    You start 5F, 3D, 2G, and have 6 bench spots. Lets for now assume that the bench is 3F, 2D, 1G. So each team will have 8F, 5D, and 3G which means that ~100 forwards should be owned, only 60 defense, and every starting goaltender. Do you have IR spots?

    Now let's take a gander at the scoring.

    Skaters
    G = 4
    A = 3
    Hits = 0.25
    SOG = 0.5
    SHG = it doesn't matter because they're so low-event they should be ignored
    PPP = 1

    Volume shooters and hitters, or goalscorers. But not soft goalscorers! That's all you care about. How about some perspective using last year's numbers?

    Barzal - 85 points! Calder! But wait! Terrible SOG and hit numbers. 394.25 fantasy points in your format.
    Evander Kane - Just 54 points. Meh. Right? 393.25 fantasy points in your format because he hits and shoots like a maniac.

    That's a 30 NHL point spread, but in your format it's a wash. 4-5 shots a game is worth just less than an assist. Hits matter too, especially for defense where scoring is going to be more limited. Hitters and shooters. Even better if they can score goals, but you'll need to turn your brain off when it comes to "points".

    Now for goalies, it's even jucier.

    W: 5
    SO: 5 - ignore because they're only worth 5... a great number is 8, so 40 FPTs... yes, they're nice but good luck predicting them from season to season.
    GA: -1
    SV: 0.25
    A: ignore because it's so low-event it doesn't matter.

    What does this tell you? 5 saves to make up for a goal against. Channel out the noise. The thing that matters most here is goalie GP. Volume of starts. You want to get the big volume starters and because it's an h2h and you have weekly starts, you also want to keep the big volume starters off the other teams as they'll be at a massive strategic disadvantage.

    The top goalies should be in the high 500s for fantasy points, with top skaters in the mid 500s.

    So bottom line, GP is what you're after.

    In summary, I would target hitters/shooters with your skaters and aim for four or five 60 GP goalies. Every week you can set your lineup according to strength of schedule and both leverage that advantage for yourself and keep the goalies out of your opponents' hands.

    None of your defenders should have less than 100 hits unless they're monster shooters. Looking at skaters you want, guys like Ovechkin, Burns, Evander Kane, Seguin, Trochek, Tarasenko stand out. With smart drafting you should be able to get three or four of those guys, depending on how closely your leaguemates understand the scoring setup. Elite shooting PP1 defenders should have big value here too. Burns, Hamilton, Josi, etc.

    This draft could go a lot of different ways. I think you can keep your F effective by focusing on G, SOG and hits (Trochek, E Kane should be available later in the draft) while really swinging for the fences on elite D (Burns, Hamilton) and overloading on big start G.

    Hope this helps!
    Last edited by fantasyhockeygeek; September 6, 2018 at 9:47 AM. Reason: Oops, I see it's weekly starts.

  7. #7
    Moses's Avatar
    Moses is offline
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    4,242
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Genius

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    I love it when FHG chimes in. I always learn so much. +1
    - I said... "God damn this tablet is heavy!"

  8. #8
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Padawan

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Thanks for the holler, Moses -- good stuff.

    What a weird format. Let's tackle it!

    First off, this is a relatively shallow league with 16 player rosters and 12 teams. Let's keep that in mind because it means that only 192 players are owned.

    It's head-to-head.

    You start 5F, 3D, 2G, and have 6 bench spots. Lets for now assume that the bench is 3F, 2D, 1G. So each team will have 8F, 5D, and 3G which means that ~100 forwards should be owned, only 60 defense, and every starting goaltender. Do you have IR spots?

    Now let's take a gander at the scoring.

    Skaters
    G = 4
    A = 3
    Hits = 0.25
    SOG = 0.5
    SHG = it doesn't matter because they're so low-event they should be ignored
    PPP = 1

    Volume shooters and hitters, or goalscorers. But not soft goalscorers! That's all you care about. How about some perspective using last year's numbers?

    Barzal - 85 points! Calder! But wait! Terrible SOG and hit numbers. 394.25 fantasy points in your format.
    Evander Kane - Just 54 points. Meh. Right? 393.25 fantasy points in your format because he hits and shoots like a maniac.

    That's a 30 NHL point spread, but in your format it's a wash. 4-5 shots a game is worth just less than an assist. Hits matter too, especially for defense where scoring is going to be more limited. Hitters and shooters. Even better if they can score goals, but you'll need to turn your brain off when it comes to "points".

    Now for goalies, it's even jucier.

    W: 5
    SO: 5 - ignore because they're only worth 5... a great number is 8, so 40 FPTs... yes, they're nice but good luck predicting them from season to season.
    GA: -1
    SV: 0.25
    A: ignore because it's so low-event it doesn't matter.

    What does this tell you? 5 saves to make up for a goal against. Channel out the noise. The thing that matters most here is goalie GP. Volume of starts. You want to get the big volume starters and because it's an h2h and you have weekly starts, you also want to keep the big volume starters off the other teams as they'll be at a massive strategic disadvantage.

    The top goalies should be in the high 500s for fantasy points, with top skaters in the mid 500s.

    So bottom line, GP is what you're after.

    In summary, I would target hitters/shooters with your skaters and aim for four or five 60 GP goalies. Every week you can set your lineup according to strength of schedule and both leverage that advantage for yourself and keep the goalies out of your opponents' hands.

    None of your defenders should have less than 100 hits unless they're monster shooters. Looking at skaters you want, guys like Ovechkin, Burns, Evander Kane, Seguin, Trochek, Tarasenko stand out. With smart drafting you should be able to get three or four of those guys, depending on how closely your leaguemates understand the scoring setup. Elite shooting PP1 defenders should have big value here too. Burns, Hamilton, Josi, etc.

    This draft could go a lot of different ways. I think you can keep your F effective by focusing on G, SOG and hits (Trochek, E Kane should be available later in the draft) while really swinging for the fences on elite D (Burns, Hamilton) and overloading on big start G.

    Hope this helps!
    Wow... just wow. Thank you very much for the detailed advice FHG and thank you Moses for giving him that holler. Everyone seems quite surprised by the format of this league... but this is what all of the Fantrax cash leagues are structured like. What exactly would a normal league set-up look like and what sites offer them?
    Yahoo, H2H Categories, 1 Year, 12 Teams
    2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 4BN

    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SHO


  9. #9
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Padawan

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Just a few questions FHG... you mentioned none of my defenders should have less than 100 hits unless they're monster shooters... what range of shots would label someone as a monster shooter? Also, when it comes to keeping F effective you suggest focusing on G, SOG and hits... why not overall points here?

    Thanks in advance!
    Yahoo, H2H Categories, 1 Year, 12 Teams
    2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 4BN

    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SHO


  10. #10
    Location
    Central Ontario
    Rep Power
    44

    Dobber Sports Stud

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Thanks for the holler, Moses -- good stuff.

    What a weird format. Let's tackle it!

    First off, this is a relatively shallow league with 16 player rosters and 12 teams. Let's keep that in mind because it means that only 192 players are owned.

    It's head-to-head.

    You start 5F, 3D, 2G, and have 6 bench spots. Lets for now assume that the bench is 3F, 2D, 1G. So each team will have 8F, 5D, and 3G which means that ~100 forwards should be owned, only 60 defense, and every starting goaltender. Do you have IR spots?

    Now let's take a gander at the scoring.

    Skaters
    G = 4
    A = 3
    Hits = 0.25
    SOG = 0.5
    SHG = it doesn't matter because they're so low-event they should be ignored
    PPP = 1

    Volume shooters and hitters, or goalscorers. But not soft goalscorers! That's all you care about. How about some perspective using last year's numbers?

    Barzal - 85 points! Calder! But wait! Terrible SOG and hit numbers. 394.25 fantasy points in your format.
    Evander Kane - Just 54 points. Meh. Right? 393.25 fantasy points in your format because he hits and shoots like a maniac.

    That's a 30 NHL point spread, but in your format it's a wash. 4-5 shots a game is worth just less than an assist. Hits matter too, especially for defense where scoring is going to be more limited. Hitters and shooters. Even better if they can score goals, but you'll need to turn your brain off when it comes to "points".

    Now for goalies, it's even jucier.

    W: 5
    SO: 5 - ignore because they're only worth 5... a great number is 8, so 40 FPTs... yes, they're nice but good luck predicting them from season to season.
    GA: -1
    SV: 0.25
    A: ignore because it's so low-event it doesn't matter.

    What does this tell you? 5 saves to make up for a goal against. Channel out the noise. The thing that matters most here is goalie GP. Volume of starts. You want to get the big volume starters and because it's an h2h and you have weekly starts, you also want to keep the big volume starters off the other teams as they'll be at a massive strategic disadvantage.

    The top goalies should be in the high 500s for fantasy points, with top skaters in the mid 500s.

    So bottom line, GP is what you're after.

    In summary, I would target hitters/shooters with your skaters and aim for four or five 60 GP goalies. Every week you can set your lineup according to strength of schedule and both leverage that advantage for yourself and keep the goalies out of your opponents' hands.

    None of your defenders should have less than 100 hits unless they're monster shooters. Looking at skaters you want, guys like Ovechkin, Burns, Evander Kane, Seguin, Trochek, Tarasenko stand out. With smart drafting you should be able to get three or four of those guys, depending on how closely your leaguemates understand the scoring setup. Elite shooting PP1 defenders should have big value here too. Burns, Hamilton, Josi, etc.

    This draft could go a lot of different ways. I think you can keep your F effective by focusing on G, SOG and hits (Trochek, E Kane should be available later in the draft) while really swinging for the fences on elite D (Burns, Hamilton) and overloading on big start G.

    Hope this helps!
    That's some fantasy advice gold right there. Big stick tap FHG.
    RHRS, Yahoo, 12-team, Roto
    PQMC, Yahoo, 12-team, Keep 11, H2H
    Taro Tsujimoto Draft League, Fantrax, 6-team, pts-only (*2018 draftees or later only)
    Hanson Bros., Fantrax, 10-Team, Keep 8, weighted scoring
    Black & Blue, Fantrax, 12-Team, Dynasty, H2H weighted
    The Dream Team League, Fantrax, 14-Team, Dynasty, H2H
    On Frozen Ponds, Fantrax 10-Team, Dynasty, Roto

    ​"When I do not know who I am I serve you, and when I do know who I am, you and I are one." - Hanuman-ji

  11. #11
    Location
    Toronto
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Star

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Quote Originally Posted by The Maritimer View Post
    Just a few questions FHG... you mentioned none of my defenders should have less than 100 hits unless they're monster shooters... what range of shots would label someone as a monster shooter? Also, when it comes to keeping F effective you suggest focusing on G, SOG and hits... why not overall points here?

    Thanks in advance!
    Good questions man, and thanks for the kind words! I'd suggest that probably about 200 SOG should be the threshold you're looking at for D. That's about the top-20 range. Ideally you'd be inside the top-10 at 220 or so.

    My reasoning for suggesting focusing on the peripherals is that they tend to be less volatile on a week to week basis, and build a nice base of "expected" production over top of which a couple points in a game makes them a monster in an h2h. For example, I'd consider it to be much more likely that a player who typically puts up 5 hits and 4 SOG in a game might pop for 2G and 2A on a nice night (gold in h2h - a "base of 1.25 FP for hits plus 2 FP for SOG = 3.25 plus the points for the G and A) whereas an assist-heavy player who doesn't shoot or hit much is either going to give you a good night or an utter zero. This way you build a base of steady production over which there is variance, rather than riding the variance to both highs and lows. "Cold streaks" don't happen if your peripheral scoring gives you that base... you just have "expected production" and "hot streaks". Does that make sense?

    And yes, if you can wrap your head around fantasy points as a standalone, sure just draft on that! I'd suggest taking it a step further and establish a percentage of the player's production that comes from peripherals vs pure scoring. That way if you're selecting between two players of similar projected totals, you get the nudge to take the one that has their week-to-week downside mitigated better.

    Hope this makes sense!

  12. #12
    Rep Power
    12

    Dobber Sports Padawan

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Quote Originally Posted by fantasyhockeygeek View Post
    Good questions man, and thanks for the kind words! I'd suggest that probably about 200 SOG should be the threshold you're looking at for D. That's about the top-20 range. Ideally you'd be inside the top-10 at 220 or so.

    My reasoning for suggesting focusing on the peripherals is that they tend to be less volatile on a week to week basis, and build a nice base of "expected" production over top of which a couple points in a game makes them a monster in an h2h. For example, I'd consider it to be much more likely that a player who typically puts up 5 hits and 4 SOG in a game might pop for 2G and 2A on a nice night (gold in h2h - a "base of 1.25 FP for hits plus 2 FP for SOG = 3.25 plus the points for the G and A) whereas an assist-heavy player who doesn't shoot or hit much is either going to give you a good night or an utter zero. This way you build a base of steady production over which there is variance, rather than riding the variance to both highs and lows. "Cold streaks" don't happen if your peripheral scoring gives you that base... you just have "expected production" and "hot streaks". Does that make sense?

    And yes, if you can wrap your head around fantasy points as a standalone, sure just draft on that! I'd suggest taking it a step further and establish a percentage of the player's production that comes from peripherals vs pure scoring. That way if you're selecting between two players of similar projected totals, you get the nudge to take the one that has their week-to-week downside mitigated better.

    Hope this makes sense!
    Thanks again FHG! Most all makes sense except for your suggestion of establishing a % of the player's production that comes from peripherals vs pure scoring... I'm not sure what you mean by that. Identifying goalies to draft will be easy as GP will be my main criteria. At the moment, I'm making a list of suitable F's (G, Sog, Hits) and D (Pts, > 100 hits unless monster shooters).
    Yahoo, H2H Categories, 1 Year, 12 Teams
    2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 4BN

    Skaters: G, A, +/-, PPP, SOG, HIT
    Goalies: W, GAA, SV%, SHO


  13. #13
    Location
    Toronto
    Rep Power
    50

    Dobber Sports Star

    Default Re: Draft Strategy - Advice Needed

    Quote Originally Posted by The Maritimer View Post
    Thanks again FHG! Most all makes sense except for your suggestion of establishing a % of the player's production that comes from peripherals vs pure scoring... I'm not sure what you mean by that. Identifying goalies to draft will be easy as GP will be my main criteria. At the moment, I'm making a list of suitable F's (G, Sog, Hits) and D (Pts, > 100 hits unless monster shooters).
    I'm saying make yourself a spreadsheet based on projections that calculates a player's total expected fantasy points for the season, and the same fantasy points on a per-game basis. Then, separately calculate the fantasy points that come from hits and SOG ("peripheral FPts"), and use yet another column to calculate the % of the total expected that come from peripheral fts. That'll help guide you on the volatility aspect.

    (if this is a barrier, I know a website that can do all this for you and let you download a CSV where this last little bit is super easy)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •