Thoughts on Rantenen

[Joker]

Was last year the breakout year or an anomaly? Thinking of acquiring him in either team in sig. Not sure what to offer. Drai on team 2? Boeser on team 1?

[Sidenown]

This is a really interesting question that I am eager for folks that are more in tune with the Avalanche to answer. Since I know in my league Draisaitl is talked about as an echelon above Rantanen, however I am growing low on Drai to be honest and would consider making that flip. Hope you get a real answer rather than just this comment haha

[Timmins_Tornado]

I wouldnt offer either Drai or Boeser. It seems crazy to me.

[stevegamer]

I'd think you can get him for slightly less than Boser/Draisatl in most formats. Maybe not a lot less, but slightly less.

I'm thinking of making a big move for him as the main part of a package coming back.

[fungchen3]

I think Rantanen is the real deal, however, I would expect 70-75 out of him, not 80-85, which is still awesome.
Instead of moving Boeser, I would try to sell a flashy prospect like Tolvanen+ or even Puljujarvi+.
I wouldn't move Draisaitl for him. With Team 2, try something around Connor+

[saucelife90]

Everyone expected Rantanen's production to take a hit when MacKinnon went down for 3 weeks, but he continued to produced at around a PPG pace. He's got the size and skill to produce even if he's not handcuffed to Mack (obviously their chemistry helps). I put his floor around 75 with a ceiling of 95, but I'd expect around 85 for him again this year. The kid's the real deal.

[Wonko]

I think Rantanen had a big year, likely one of his best, but he looks to be a solid player once given the opportunity. I can see him staying around 75 points most seasons with the possible 'explosion' season or two if everything comes together like it did last year.

[fungchen3]

Everyone expected Rantanen's production to take a hit when MacKinnon went down for 3 weeks, but he continued to produced at around a PPG pace. He's got the size and skill to produce even if he's not handcuffed to Mack (obviously their chemistry helps). I put his floor around 75 with a ceiling of 95, but I'd expect around 85 for him again this year. The kid's the real deal.

As a Rantanen owner, if he scores around 85 again this year, I will dance a jig! I'm expecting MacKinnon to drop a bit... around 85 points and Rantanen around 75. That said, I always try to rank the players I own a tad more conservative. Man, I hope you're right!

[lucafen4]

it was breakout, but you want the best player in the deal - if I'm the other GM and I see Drais or Boeser 1-1, I snatch it cuz I believe I just got the best player

try buy him with quantity

[Joker]

Thanks for the input everyone!

[FrozenInferno]

Rantanen was by far my best pick of our whole startup draft last year. I took him in the 20th round (out of 22) for $1 and he turned out to be a stud.

He was also crazy consistent. Fun fact: He didn't go more than two games in a row without a point until the very last handful of games in the season. Even when Mack was out he kept up that pace. In a weekly matchup league like mine that goes a long way.

I don't expect 84 or more from him every season but if he gives me an average of 75 or so with the occasional jump into the 80s I'll be very very happy with that.

[HonkyTonkMan]

I think he's the real deal. Kept thinking he was gonna slow down, especially when Mack got hurt but was still Dynamite (like the above poster said).

I think he gets 70 minimum going forward.

[HabsBlood]

Great player but definitely don't be expecting another 35 powerplay points from him. He had 10ppp the year prior. I would adjust him down to 70 as it's the prudent thing to do. He's totally capable of another 85 season but I just wouldn't bank on it considering how much went right for the Avalanche top line last year.

Some factors to consider here that haven't been mentioned yet:

Rantanen started the season playing 4 minutes per game on the powerplay. In the third quarter, he averaged 2 minutes and his production dipped to 15 points in 19 games. The fourth quarter was by far his best (28 points in 21 games) and stands as an outlier last season. He ended it playing about 3 minutes (quarterly averages).

His PDO last season was quite high - 102.9. The team shot about 10% at 5v5 when he was on the ice, which is somewhat high, but considering he played with Mack, Landy and Barrie etc. it's probably within the reasonable range. That said, his PDO in the season prior was 98.6.

His possession (corsi) was strong last year after getting caved in during 2016-17. Relative to his teammates, he did alright.

He saw a meaningful bump in the quality of his linemates for 2017-18 and saw a significant decrease in defensive-zone starts.

He still struggled with shot suppression and generating his own chances individually, which is pretty surprising for a guy who posted 3.3p/60 at 5v5. I would say until he improves in this area, there will always be a chance that he gets shuffled around. But given the team's construction, I wouldn't think this is imminent. He's also young enough that progress is still happening here.

He had a good portion of secondary assists at 5v5. He was in the 69th percentile league wide for primary assists at 5v5, but the 98th percentile for secondaries.

[Fly13]

Take him, he’s the real deal

[am78]

Everyone expected Rantanen's production to take a hit when MacKinnon went down for 3 weeks, but he continued to produced at around a PPG pace. He's got the size and skill to produce even if he's not handcuffed to Mack (obviously their chemistry helps). I put his floor around 75 with a ceiling of 95, but I'd expect around 85 for him again this year. The kid's the real deal.

Agreed 100%