Need your opinions on last keeper spots !

[obie4life]

Here's the league info:

1) I finished 2/5 last year and won the year before....I should still compete for the top this year.
2) We keep 15 players out of 30.
3) We dress 2G, 6D and 12F, so 10 on the bench
4) Points only, but for Goalers: 2W + 1OTL + 2SO
5) Cheap defensemen who can produce decent numbers are very rare...that's why I plan on keeping Pulock/Montour
6) Here is my keeper list of 12 keeper locks so far:

Player Cap Hit Years left

Devan Dubnyk $4,333 3
Braden Holtby $6,100 2

Shayne Gostisbehere $4,500 5
Brent Burns $8,000 7
Jake Gardiner $4,050 1 (Cheap for 1st PP unit in TOR)
Ryan Pulock $2,000 2 (Cheap contrat and already had 39 point pace in 2017-2018)

Eric Staal $3,500 1 (one of the best bargain in 2016-2017)
Brad Marchand $6,125 5
Artemi Panarin $6,000 1
Clayton Keller $1,673 2
Rickard Rakell $3,800 4
Pavel Buchnevich $0,925 1 (very cheap for top 6 role & maybe 1st PP unit)

Bubble keepers:
Cam Talbot $4,167 1
Mark Stone RFA 0 (88 point pace in 2016-2017, can he repeat ?)
Max Pacioretty $4,500 1 (not sure where he will be traded)
Nikolaj Ehlers $6,000 7 (Can he leapfrog Kyle Connor ?)
Brandon Montour $3,388 2 (40-45 points possible without 1st unit ?)
John Tavares $11,000 7 (Can he reach 90-95 points with TOR to make for his salary ?)

So, I need your advice on these questions:

1) Take a gamble on Talbot & the Oilers to comeback to 2016-2017 form or take the safer choice with Dubnyk ? (almost same Cap Hit)

2) Out Stone, Pacioretty, Ehlers, Montour & Tavares, I can keep only 3. Who would you keep for the next 2-3 years (not sure league will continue beyond that) ? My picks so far: Stone, Pacioretty & Montour (I like his upside)

[The Comish]

Interesting dilemmas with years left to factor in as well.

1) Fairly easy decision for me (an optimistic Oiler fan, lol), you keep Dubnyk for 3 years versus Talbot for 1
2) I'd be very tempted to ride the Tavares train in Toronto and hope for the best. I would also keep Ehlers and bank on his upside on a very good, young Jets team. I would like also keep Montour, who I think will end up on the Ducks top PP.

The bubble players are tough because I also think Pacioretty will rebound nicely and I really like Mark Stone, but his contract situation, the team and his penchant for getting hurt take the shine off him for me.

Best of luck with your decisions.

[Eskimo Brother]

Do you really only have a cap of 75M for 30 players? If so, I'm sorry but Tavares is a drop.

Dubnyk over Talbot, but both if that's an option.

Of the rest of the list, I like Montour, Patches, Talbot, but if not Talbot then I go Ehlers.

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Depends on Stone's salary as well. When do you need to submit keepers?

[obie4life]

Do you really only have a cap of 75M for 30 players? If so, I'm sorry but Tavares is a drop.

Dubnyk over Talbot, but both if that's an option.

Of the rest of the list, I like Montour, Patches, Talbot, but if not Talbot then I go Ehlers.

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Depends on Stone's salary as well. When do you need to submit keepers?

Thanks for your input ! Here's the answers to your questions:

1) Only the 20 actives players count against the cap....so Tavares salary is manageable. But if he finishes with 80-85 points like past seasons, he's not worth it. Might as well have Ehlers or Stone with 65 points at almost half the cost !

2) Almost every owner will keep their 2 starting goaltenders...so I could probably re-draft Talbot in later rounds. Not so sure with Ehelrs ou Stone !

3) We haven't settled on a date yet...Stone salary should be known before the keeper deadline ! But if I want to trade my bubble keepers for draft picks...I must decide quickly !

[obie4life]

Interesting dilemmas with years left to factor in as well.

1) Fairly easy decision for me (an optimistic Oiler fan, lol), you keep Dubnyk for 3 years versus Talbot for 1
2) I'd be very tempted to ride the Tavares train in Toronto and hope for the best. I would also keep Ehlers and bank on his upside on a very good, young Jets team. I would like also keep Montour, who I think will end up on the Ducks top PP.

The bubble players are tough because I also think Pacioretty will rebound nicely and I really like Mark Stone, but his contract situation, the team and his penchant for getting hurt take the shine off him for me.

Best of luck with your decisions.

I think I'll go with Elhers over Patches....almost same production (60-65 points) but Patch will make at least 7.5 M$ next year.

Between Stone/Tavares: Is Tavares a 95 point player in Toronto or he keeps his career average of 80-85 points ? If that's the latter, I rather keep Stone who can produce 65-70 points but at about 6,5 M $.