Star Player's Production Analysis - Post-Cup Finals Appearance Season

[quantaloup]

The Conundrum

"You know, buddy, XYZ player just had a huge year, went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Worked an extra two months at full steam! His team have a shorter summer to recover from the bruises. And imagine the partying, the alcohol, etc... Man, it will be tough season for him and ABCTEAM."


I have heard this argument in discussions a couple of times over my fantasy hockey "career", especially when a GM tries to buy my players, looking for reasons why they're worth less than what I'm asking for. Well, I thought, now is the time to shed some light on this... assumption?

Are star players really affected by working many weeks of overtime, battling through the league's best teams all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, the following season?

I have decided to make a very non-scientific, but fun analysis. I picked the 3 or 4 top points producers for both Stanley Cup finalists and compared their regular season points production in the year they reached the Finals to their points production the following year. For example, I would compare what Jonathan Toews et al. did in the 2014-2015 regular season (when he won the cup), with what they did the following season, in 2015-2016. For the purpose of this "study", I went as far as the 2012-2013 season, all the way to the 2017-18 season. I did not consider playoffs stats, and used points per game (and not total points).

I was not too sure what to expect - or if I'd see a trend at all, but thought it was worth investigating.

The Results

As I finished the first two years of comparison, filling my Excel spreadsheet with data, I was struck that all the LA Kings and NJ Devils players had a slight or significant drop in production in the year after their 2012 Finals appearance. It was especially hard for Kovalchuk (-22%) and Elias (-22%). A trend already?

I went on and noticed another drop in production from Chicago's Kane (-14.5%) and Toews (-12.75%), in 2014, the year after they won the Cup in 2013. However, Boston's guys followed that Finals appearance with a whopping 56.72% increase for Seguin (in Dallas, though) and a 22.86% increase for Krejci.

Hmk. What's next?

The 2015 Kings didn't seem too affected by their 2014 conquest of the Cup with minor variations, while the Rangers's Zuccarello's production went down 19.48% and Richards (moved to CHI) went down 21%. Stepan went up by 15.71%, however...

The 2016 Chicago Blackhawks saw a post-Cup Kane go up 22.86% in his points production, while Toews went down 9.88%. Hossa went down 29.73%. For Tampa Bay, it was a hard year for Johnson (-41.5%!). Kucherov went up 8.86% (season before huge breakout).

The 2017 Penguins almost all gained significant pts/g production the year after they won the cup (Crosby 12%, Kessel 18%, Malkin 14%), with the exception of LEtang (-12%). The Sharks? Boy it was though for Thornton (minus 37%) and Pavelski (11.5%), but Burns maintained (+1.43%).

In 2018, somehow most Penguins still managed to produce even more! Crosby up by 6%, Kessel by... 32% (!) and Malkin by 9%! What an incredible 3 years period for the Penguins. Letang continued to slide by another 22%. Nasvhille's boys almost all went up, too : Arvidsson (3%), Forsberg (35%!), and Josi (4%). Only Johansen saw his production decline (8%). To be fair, 2018 saw a surge in scoring for almost every team.

Goalies

But what about goalies? During those 6 years, goalies mostly maintained their performance after a Stanley Cup finals appearance. In fact, only Murray (2018), Crawford (2014) and Quick (2013) saw what, I guess, we could call a noticeable decline in statistical performance.

Conclusion

I can only conclude that a participation in the Stanley Cup Finals is NOT a viable indicator of a future decline or rise in points production the following year. If anything, I could underline how a Cup finals seemed to affect older star players who've had a great season, but that most of us would have predicted a steep decline the following year (Elias in 2013, Richards in 2015, Hossa in 2016, Thornton in 2017). I would comfortably draft Kuznetsov, Holtby, Ovechkin, and Backstrom for 2018-19.



You boys can look at the actual data I've gathered and compiled by clicking here (Google Document).

Thanks for reading!

[evans334]

I love stuff like this!

Great work!

[HonkyTonkMan]

A very polarizing example (not in the finals but still) is Guentzel. Monster in the playoffs (last 2 years) and such a dud last year. So hard to project a guy like that; could be a top fantasy player or a jabroni like he was this year.

Great work on this by the way!

[PenguinHunter]

This is awesome stuff!! Thanks!! REP for sure!!

[quantaloup]

I think this also shows how these athletes really are human-machines... Also shows how the Penguins are just friggin' monsters. Most of them actually increased their production, even after 2 Cup runs! Impressive.

[mounD]

A very polarizing example (not in the finals but still) is Guentzel. Monster in the playoffs (last 2 years) and such a dud last year. So hard to project a guy like that; could be a top fantasy player or a jabroni like he was this year.

Great work on this by the way!

The thing with Guentzel is that he spent a large part of the season away from Crosby, which I wouldn’t expect to be the case going forward. The issue, however, remains exposure to the Penguins lethal PP1 unit. As long as Hornqvist is around and healthy, he will mostly be getting those PP minutes ahead of Guentzel — who isn’t such a bad net-front player in his own right. Guentzel is a great value at EV strength, but in fantasy hockey the powerplay is so crucially important. He’s just not getting access to the most productive ice-time.

[HonkyTonkMan]

The thing with Guentzel is that he spent a large part of the season away from Crosby, which I wouldn’t expect to be the case going forward. The issue, however, remains exposure to the Penguins lethal PP1 unit. As long as Hornqvist is around and healthy, he will mostly be getting those PP minutes ahead of Guentzel — who isn’t such a bad net-front player in his own right. Guentzel is a great value at EV strength, but in fantasy hockey the powerplay is so crucially important. He’s just not getting access to the most productive ice-time.

Great point; I held Hornqvist all year because of the sweet front of the net presence on the PP. It's tough because I'm in a points league so Horny isn't a monster but with that PP, I couldn't give up on him. The more I watched Pens games, the more I realized how dialed in Horny was on the PP. Because of that I dumped Guentzel and he never really rebounded so I did well.

[stevegamer]

How did you select the star players? Are you going to classify the star players from the most recent Cup Final now, before the season? Seems like that might be a good idea.

[quantaloup]

How did you select the star players? Are you going to classify the star players from the most recent Cup Final now, before the season? Seems like that might be a good idea.

I selected only the top 3-4 regular-season points producers (more often than not, this eliminates d-men) from every team that made it to the finals, and compared that to their regular season performance the following season. I could have looked maybe at the top d-man also. Also did not want to put dozens of hours into that research and just wanted to see if there was a trend at all.

For 17-18, following that method, I will need to wait until the end of the 18-19 season to compare Kuznetsov, Ovie and Backstrom's numbers, but will surely add it to the sheet then.

Note that this exercise doesn't take into consideration at all point production in the playoffs. Strictly season performance.

- Rob

[BranDOOM]

Nice job Rob. Interesting topic and a great read. Thank you sir!

[stevegamer]

Sounds good. Just wanted to see what the methodology was, as the scorers were a bit all over the place, but teams vary.

Now that you have your guys, will be easy.

[mapleleafs1967]

Really good read.
One thing that sparks my curiosity now is how Stanley Cup Winners do vs. the Losers. Whether they take their foot off the gas the following summer/year, or whether the difference is negligible.