Lehner Island

[4T2]

I'm on the same page as you guys in that I would take Lehner over Demko and Saros for sure, I'd probably have him in the same tier as Rinne.

All that being said, the explanation is really at the top of the article where Dobber explains:

As always, goalies within the same tier should be considered equal. At that point you would differentiate based on your team's need – immediate help, or long-term upside, or low-risk (i.e. doesn't get hurt a lot), etc.

This means that Lehner is in Tier 2 the same as Rinne/Saros/Hutton and a whole bunch of other goalies.

He also explains the ranking:

Some goalies have a higher/lower tier and yet because it is sorted by rating it may not make sense. Goalies are such a hard animal to figure out. A fantasy-useless goalie can become a stud in a matter of a month (ahem, Jordan Binnington). A weaker goalie can be…oh I don't know, sixth… strictly due to getting tons of guaranteed starts on a winning team year after year.

This shows why Demko is ranked just higher than Lehner in this current set of rankings.

[FFleming5]

1) I think you must wait on the contract situation to unfold; 2) I think you need to wait to see what the splits are for next year.

Greiss had a great year too even though Lehner is the sure starter... but what kind of contract does he ask for? If he’s smart he takes a raise and a team friendly deal. Next, if Greiss starts 35-40 games next year again you’d have to put Lehner in the 25-30 win zone... not certain on splits atm. Last point, Sorokin. I know it’s hard to peg goalies for too long of a timetable in any circumstances but it’s still relevant to see what the Isles do with one of the top KHL goalies and goalie prospects.

[ericdaoust]

Lehner's been through a lot so to me it makes sense to stay where it works, even if that means taking a bit less money/term. He has chemistry with this team and the coaches while not being overwhelmed with a busy schedule trying to be the team's savior. Maybe he sees it differently though.

[butch]

1) I think you must wait on the contract situation to unfold; 2) I think you need to wait to see what the splits are for next year.

Greiss had a great year too even though Lehner is the sure starter... but what kind of contract does he ask for? If he’s smart he takes a raise and a team friendly deal. Next, if Greiss starts 35-40 games next year again you’d have to put Lehner in the 25-30 win zone... not certain on splits atm. Last point, Sorokin. I know it’s hard to peg goalies for too long of a timetable in any circumstances but it’s still relevant to see what the Isles do with one of the top KHL goalies and goalie prospects.

I know that theres the koskinen contract lehner can point to but he might take the security of 4 m x 5 years to stay put .Sorokin has one year left in khl , Greiss has one year left with Isles so that timeline for Sorokins arrival is perfect . Lehner--Sorokin for 2020-2021 and then you just take it one season at a time from there .