Morgan Rielly, to keep or not to keep

[staticRhymes]

Last year he got 52 points as a 24 year old playing second fiddle to Gardiner. I believe Rielly is the best dman on the team and will take another step this year, possible hitting 60 points.

The acquisition of Tavares to the Leafs makes this a tougher decision. The team I've assembled is in the signature with the league details.

Essentially its come down to Rielly as my bubble boy and not sure what to do. I have a deal out right now for a 2nd rounder 11th overall for Rielly straight up, if I get that I think I'm happy, however I give this deal happening about 30% chances of happening since people don't like giving up 1st or 2nd rounders.

I'm not sure if OEL has more trade potential, but he's definitely not someone I want to sell "low" right now. I have huge hopes in Ristolainen so I'm not trading him.

What do you guys think? Is Rielly someone who has trade value in a 13 team league? Should I expect a 2nd, drop to a 3rd, or if I don't get a 2nd just let him go and target him as redraft material? What do you think Rielly has in store for next year?

[HonkyTonkMan]

I think Rielly is going to be a fantasy stud for a long time in Toronto. I'd keep him and not look back

[DusterDave]

I wouldn?t trade Reilly, you justified keeping him in your post so why are you trying to convince yourself to trade him? Same with OEL. I?ll have to disagree with you on Risto as well, he is the one to trade of the three.

[MasterX57]

Depends on what you can get as an 11th pick..

[hockeymanG23]

I'm curious what your roto stats are but 11th overall for Reilly sounds like a decent return in a limited keeper.

[BreadManPanarin]

Personally I think your faith in Ristolainen is misplaced, unless you just think he can be a great Nikita Zadorov type (minus the PIM). He just isn't all that talented offensively. If he isn't on PP1 w/ Darlin then he is gonna go from 40-50ish points down to 20-30ish points pretty damn quick.

If you value physicality, keep Risto. If you value points in bunches, keep Rielly. Whoever you don't keep you should obviously trade for best asset offered.

[PrairieDog]

I'd definitely keep him over Ristolainen (and Raanta). He's either going to be backing Mathews' or Tavares' lines - I could be wrong but IMO he should be a shoe-in for 60 points at least.

[staticRhymes]

Thanks for all of responses, I've been humming and hawing about this one. The thing about it is Risto is a peripheral stat stuffer, and my league is looking to add blocks as well which increases his value even more. Rielly doesn't block as much, and not even close for hits. I realize Rielly is pegged for 50-60 points for the forsable future, but can Risto get 45-50 in the same time frame because if he can I think Risto is my guy here.

For the record, I'm was leaning towards Ristolainen, I'm a fan of his and traded for him last year. Just wanted to see if I was way off base with keeping Risto and attempting to trade Rielly here or let him go if trade doesn't happen.

*Roto stats for players are G, A, Hits, PIM, SOG, +/-, PPP, SHP with blocks substituted for PIMS in the following year. Interesting that dobber roto rankings has Risto at 38 and Rielly is not listed.

* Also last year Gostisbehere, Shultz and Carlson went in the 2nd round in my league

[Wonko]

IMO (and i have studied this topic extensively with other forcasters results) Rielly likely puts up 50-60 points next season if he stays healthy. Approximately, 190 shots, 50 hits, 25 PPP and 100 blocks. It is up to you to decide if that type of production merits a spot on your squad. You know your league settings better than we do. Those are pretty damn good numbers in most leagues though coming from a D man.