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Thread: At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

  1. #1
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    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

    Title of the thread says it all. Side note, I'm shopping Dubnyk who just turned 32. I'm wondering how many years of top tier goaltending he has left.

    What are your thoughts gents?
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  2. #2
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    Dobber Sports Demi-God

    Default Re: At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

    Goaltending is mostly mental sharpness & prepositioning (anticipating puck movement/play) - so it's a question along the lines of "When did you start to feel like you weren't sharp anymore?".
    Of the generic "age/performance" possible combinations in the NHL - I think this would be the least likely to have a good reliability of an answer.
    Yes... like anything, you could gather data and their would be a mean... but I think it would be among the most scatterered (high standard dev) of calcs.

    Some goalies have had dynamite rookie seasons - then fizzled out.
    Some don't blossom until their late 20s.
    Some have career years in their 30s. Curtis McElhinney just had his best year, age 35.
    Brodeur played until... what... age 42.

    In short - there's no crystal ball for this one - and I'd recommend that nobody even try to pretend they know.

  3. #3
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    Administrator

    Default Re: At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

    Goalies become riskier after 30 because their physical skills decline but momentum has more to do with having a good season than physical talent. Guys like Huet, Hammond, McElhinney and even Niemi have had great runs despite not being the most gifted athletes.

    The real answer is goalies are weird and they're each their own animal.


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  4. #4
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    Dobber Sports Apprentice

    Default Re: At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

    At what age does voodoo start to decline? Never, it's voodoo.
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  5. #5
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    The Great One

    Default Re: At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

    I wouldn't be worried about holding Dubnyk or trying to cash in before he declines. He is signed for 3 more years and it's not like there are any internal threats to take his position. I'd definitely advice selling low, just based on his age.

  6. #6
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    Dobber Sports Grand Master

    Default Re: At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

    There's physical and there's mental.Physical is easier to observe, as sometimes they just can't stay healthy for the long haul.

    Also it's not so much "start to decline" as become unable to be a starter. Once a goalie is no longer able to be at least a tandem goalie, there's really not much role left for him in the NHL. Too few goalie roster spots compared to a skater who can slide down the roster.

    Specifically, I'm not too worried about Dubnyk. Feel free to trae him for something that looks like reasonable value, but be willing to ride him until the end if needed.
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  7. #7
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    The Magnificent One

    Default Re: At What Age Do Goalies Start to Decline?

    I did a column on this last summer, and based on my research the "peak" age for goalies in terms of their save percentage is basically 29 years old. Here's a link if you're interested in reading it:

    https://dobberhockey.com/hockey-home...art-3-goalies/

    I also penned similar columns for forwards and defensemen - you can find those links in my signature. All columns were from last summer.
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