TSN Draft Ranking

[Jouko-Pouko]

Bob McKenzie revealed some really interesting details about the upcoming draft ranking in his latest Bobcast. I wrote down some notes and posted them on Twitter but figured I'd copy them here as well.

1) Some players don't crack the consensus Top 93 even though they're ranked late 1st / early 2nd by one or two teams but aren't in the Top 90 by others.
2) Svechnikov consensus #2 prospect now.
3) Multiple scouts have Zadina falling out of their top 5.
4) Kotkaniemi got multiple top 5 votes, Dobson as well.
5) Hayton and Kravtsov got a top 5 vote as well. Sounds like they're going to be top 12 guys on his list.
6) Kotkaniemi at #3 to Montreal isn't considered a reach anymore. Sounds like he's going to be high on the final consensus list.
7) Dobson is the 2nd highest ranked defenseman which probably means he's top 5. Has overtaken Bouchard and Boqvist since the last ranking.
8) Boqvist is ranked behind Dobson, Bouchard and Hughes, meaning he's likely somewhere around #9 or #10.
9) Merkley is ranked anywhere from #16 to #60. The teams that have him in their top 25 are not sure they'd actually take him that high.

Sounds like it's Zadina, Dobson, Kotkaniemi and Tkachuk from #3 to #6 but not sure about the exact order. Then it's probably Bouchard, Hughes, Wahlstrom and Boqvist rounding out the top 10. Kravtsov and Hayton could be coming next.

I thought this was interesting so I figured I'd share. I believe the final ranking is officially revealed next Monday.

[lucafen4]

so... maybe more appropriately titled, TSN Draft Ranking Teaser? since... there are no rankings...

yet

[PenguinHunter]

so... maybe more appropriately titled, TSN Draft Ranking Teaser? since... there are no rankings...

yet

+1 I got so excited to see their rankings! #Clickbait!!

All joking aside... thanks for sharing these.

1) Crazy how different players can be ranked.
2) No surprise here.
3) I would be shocked to see Zadina fall out of top 5.
4) I think Dobson goes top 5 for sure, Kotkaniemi I see him outside the top 5.
5) These two getting a top 5 vote... wow, impressive. This likely means that Hayton won't be available for my Flyers.
6) See point #4
7) I like Dobson over those other two D-men as well.
8) 5 D-man in top 10... that would be impressive for D!
9) Could slip a long way then!

[Daydream Nation]

Thanks for sharing Jouko.

[STONE.]

The Canucks need a dman, and this makes me increasingly excited for the choices they'll have.
Of course, when they shockingly take Merkley a round earlier than expected as a compliment to the back-broken Juolevi, I'll be doubly unhappy.

[Zorro]

JP, you got me really excited.... ��

[Axeman33]

As an Oilers fan, I really like their chances of getting a very good Dman in this draft at 10 if we go by this.

[forsbergfan]

Thanks for the link JP.
Another point important to point out, McKenzie also said that Quinn Hughes basically doesn't play defence. I wonder if that effects his draft position. Not too fall far, but maybe enough to push him behind Dobson and Bouchard. I could see him falling to the Rangers, who already have a whole bunch of defensive defencemen in their cupboard (Hajek, Lindgren come to mind).

[DocMcPuffin]

Wonder why Zadina isn't in some scouts top 5?

[forsbergfan]

Wonder why Zadina isn't in some scouts top 5?

I suppose a lot now have Kotkaniemi in their top 5, and listening to the Bobcast, it seems like Dobson is becoming a consensus top 5 player as well. Along with Dahlin and Svechnikov, that's already 4. It only takes one more. Between Hughes, Bouchard, Wahlstrom, Boqvist, and even Hayton and Kravtsov, he could fall out of the top 5. However, practically in the draft, I don't see him falling out of the top 5. Even if the Habs don't take him, and if the Sens decide they need a dman cause it doesn't look like Karlsson is staying after this past week, the Coyotes will jump on him. Imagine Zadina and Keller playing together. Scary.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Sorry for the title, guys. Didn't realize it would create such confusion. I mean, Bob has already released like three TSN Draft Rankings this season. But yeah, a mod can modify that.

Thanks for the link JP.
Another point important to point out, McKenzie also said that Quinn Hughes basically doesn't play defence. I wonder if that effects his draft position. Not too fall far, but maybe enough to push him behind Dobson and Bouchard. I could see him falling to the Rangers, who already have a whole bunch of defensive defencemen in their cupboard (Hajek, Lindgren come to mind).

He also said he doesn't really watch prospects. I'm guessing Bob has only seen him at the WJC where his defense looked quite bad but it improved a lot throughout the season in college. At this point, Hughes is actually very good defensively. His defensive reads and positioning are very good, better than Bouchard's. Obviously his size hurts him in some situations, so he still needs to work on that. He is an offensive defenseman, a rover. But to say he doesn't play defense is a bit misleading.

[forsbergfan]

Sorry for the title, guys. Didn't realize it would create such confusion. I mean, Bob has already released like three TSN Draft Rankings this season. But yeah, a mod can modify that.



He also said he doesn't really watch prospects. I'm guessing Bob has only seen him at the WJC where his defense looked quite bad but it improved a lot throughout the season in college. At this point, Hughes is actually very good defensively. His defensive reads and positioning are very good, better than Bouchard's. Obviously his size hurts him in some situations, so he still needs to work on that. He is an offensive defenseman, a rover. But to say he doesn't play defense is a bit misleading.

True, but the way he spoke about his defence was really bad. When comparing him to Adam Boqvist, who is being projected to fall a bit (could be the 4th of the non-Dahlin dmen to go) because of his defence, he says that at least Boqvist attempts to play defence, while Hughes doesn't. If Bob doesn't want prospects, he's getting that from the scouts he talks to. Now, those scouts still have Hughes really high, but that just goes to show how good he is offensively.

[Jouko-Pouko]

True, but the way he spoke about his defence was really bad. When comparing him to Adam Boqvist, who is being projected to fall a bit (could be the 4th of the non-Dahlin dmen to go) because of his defence, he says that at least Boqvist attempts to play defence, while Hughes doesn't. If Bob doesn't want prospects, he's getting that from the scouts he talks to. Now, those scouts still have Hughes really high, but that just goes to show how good he is offensively.

Like I said, it's probably coming from his performance at the WJC where Bob definitely watched him. Most likely he didn't check from the scouts if it's improved since then or not. Hughes is definitely better defensively than Boqvist.

Craig Custance and Corey Pronman just talked about Hughes' defensive game at The Full 60 podcast, and there really are no concerns anymore. Pronman has been watching him all season long (said he got about 15 live views of Hughes this season) whereas Custance was watching him live at the Worlds in Denmark.

And here's a quote about Hughes from Mitch Brown's new article at The Athletic:

Let?s start with defence, not because I think it?s his best asset, but because it?s an area where I feel Hughes is generally underrated.

[Pengwin7]

re: Playing Defense.
It is more of a mental aspect than anything else. Hughes is a smart player. I think he's going to go through the same bumps as Gostisbehere. When a guy comes out of NCAA, sometimes he gets used to anticipating puck turnovers - things that maybe don't happen because the quality of teammates and opposing players is quite varied and more unpredictable. At the NHL level, the players are all so good, that play becomes a bit more predictable. This means players have to buckle down more and think about defense more. It takes a WHILE for some players to do it, both Ghost & MacKinnon, got over those bumps in becoming dynamic two-way players over past couple years. They are both such complete players now. (*So as to not derail, I actually think MacKinnon over-focused on defense as a center, which limited his offensive game for previous years when people were doubting him - but with a complete defensive game established, he finally was able to pop as an offensive player w/Rantanen, this past year. Its sort of an opposite case to what happened with Ghost... having one part of the game, but not the other, while young in the NHL. That is the point.)

So - I think it's both accurate to say that Hughes sometimes doesn't look like he's playing defense... and to also say that "I'm not worried about it."
He's a smart player and a great skater... so he will adjust at the NHL level.
Also - defenseman are paired - and a good coach will have five options to try pairing with any given other D man.
Usually, a best fit is there.

Hughes will eventually be a D1 or D2 pairing guy with a more stay-at-home partner.
And he's going to be a PP1 beast.

Even PHI gave Ghost a 6x$4.5m contract after a sort of disappointing first half of the 2016-2017 season.
The second half of that season and 2017-2018 he showed what a complete player he could be.
It was just focus. It will be same for Hughes.
He will be a top 15 NHL scoring defenseman in/by his 3rd NHL season.

I do think he falls a bit, as some players are rising.
I forecast Detroit drafting him at #6.

Though, Arizona (& Chayka) at #5 love investing in defensemen... but I foresee them trading down and hauling a better total asset return.
Top five, I still feel, will all be forwards (incl. Tkachuk & Kotkaniemi or Wahlstrom)

[Pit Bulls]

Kotkaniemi at 3rd doesn't seem like such a stretch anymore in light of the Galchenyuk deal. MTL's biggest need is a C and I don't see them as a contending team for JT