Mittelstadt vs #2 Pick in 2018 Draft *REP*

[SergeP]

Not for the league in my signature but a different league with a nearly identical scoring and roster set up.

I've got Mittelstadt on my farm team and am wondering if I should offer him straight up to the team with the #2 pick in this year's draft.

Would you give up Mitts for the #2 pick? I've also got the #16 pick in this year's draft. Would you be willing to add pick 16 to Mittelstadt in order to get #2 or is that too much?

Thoughtful answers repped as always

[Hunter9]

I would do it for #2 I think. Wouldnt add the 16th

[finnys_fanatsy]

I guess it would depend if positions are used or just F vs D.

I own the 2nd OA pick this year and I wouldn't take Mitts unless I needed another C. I would really have to think on it though to determine if he would be better than Svech. And I don't even know he he would be?

[Belexus75]

if i owned #2 pick i would be asking for much more than Mittlestadt...i personally think Svechnikov will be a stud but mostly cause in majority of leagues picks are hold about extra 50% of value vs a players that are picked with those picks...

This is high end example but as great as McDavid is, you could get more for that pick 3 years ago than you can for Mcdavid himself now..in my experience it works with just about any pick...

[Zorro]

40 goals in 44 games as a 17/18 year old..
I would want Svechnikov over Mittlestadt..

And if Svechnikov goes 1st then you get Dahlin!!

[fungchen3]

First, I'll say that Mittelstadt could be my favorite drafted prospect in the NHL right now. I like him more than Pettersson, Tolvanen, etc.
That said, based on your format, goals are more valuable than assists, which plays a part in your thinking.

For starters, Mittlestadt + 16 is too much. I wouldn't even consider offering that.
Also, if I were in your position, I wouldn't do anything until draft day when you see where these kids end up.
And, if I were considering trading Mittelstadt for the 2nd overall, I would take Zadina with the pick, not Svechnikov, as I think Zadina could be a high-end sniper at the NHL level.

Without knowing where Svechnikov and Zadina end up, this is pure speculation that doesn't factor in teammates, combos, situation, opportunity, coaching scheme, etc. ...

Mittelstadt, Casey
3 Yr Projection: 24/44/68
Prime Production: 28/49/77
Likely ceiling: 31/57/88
Comparison: Nicklas Backstrom / Patrick Kane / Johnny Gaudreau

Svechnikov, Andrei
3 Yr Projection: 25/39/64
Prime Production: 30/45/75
Likely ceiling: 35/53/88
Comparison: Evgeny Kuznetsov / Mikko Rantanen / Blake Wheeler

Zadina, Filip
3 Yr Projection: 30/33/63
Prime Production: 38/36/74
Likely ceiling: 45/40/85
Comparison: Vlad Tarasenko / Filip Forsberg / William Karlsson / Rickard Rakell

I think the separation between Mittelstadt and Svechnikov could be razor thin. I am also not as high on Svechnikov as some, and I don't think he'll score as much in the NHL as many think (80+ on average etc.) However, I think his 200 foot game is very polished for a kid his age so he might end up the best overall NHLer in the group, but I'm not really gushing over him in a points only fantasy format. Not like past #2s.
Yes, his OHL goal totals are sweet, but if you watch him play, he does much of his damage taking the puck to the net. This is a lot easier at the lower levels, and not as easy to achieve in the NHL - see: Nichushkin.

The other thing that caught my attention is his position in the draft. 2 years ago he was being talked about as potentially the 1st pick in the draft, at least on par with Dahlin. About 14 months ago, Dahlin completely blew past him and made the 18 draft a one horse race. Now Zadina has pretty much closed the gap, and is in the billing for 2nd pick. Zadina also outplayed him in the WJs and at the Prospects game (by a lot). It also speaks volumes that Carolina has already gone on record saying, they're "open" to moving the 2nd overall pick. If Svechnikov was an Eichel or Laine, those words are never spoken.

As for Zadina, I was blown away by him, watching him up close at the WJs in Buffalo. For one, he looks bigger than he is, because he's stocky, upright, and plays a strong game. He's not the tallest kid in the world but he's thick, solid and strong (think Crosby).
Zadina's hockey sense is off the charts and his release is absolutely disgusting. I don't care what anyone says, there's no way on earth Svechnikov has a better shot than this dude - it's not even close for me. Zadina's shot, today, is very Tarasenko, Forsberg, Rakell ish. And, like those guys, he picks goalies apart in every place. Top cheese, five hole, high-glove, short side. He's a total sniper.

At the end of the day, I think trading Mittelstadt for Svechnikov could be a wash at best, or a slight decrease at worst. I don't think Svechnikov will be a bust by any means, but I don't see his offensive game dominating in the NHL. And you know what you're getting with Mittelstadt. He's part of that Buffalo core that will be improving. Let's see where the other kids end up.

But in a goals = 3 format, I'd be licking my chops if I could draft Filip Zadina.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I'd be willing to trade Mittelstadt for the #2 pick but I wouldn't add anything to it. Just comes down to personal preference for me.

Sounds like fungchen3 has been drinking the World Juniors Kool-Aid but the latest TSN Drat Ranking revealed that NHL scouts see some separation between Svechnikov and Zadina. It's good to remember that Zadina is a year older, and that plays a big part in their projection for the future. I think Svechnikov is the better player right now, and when you add in the age difference, it just makes the difference between them more clear. Some scouts also think that Zadina will become more of a playmaker at the NHL level which would hurt his value in OP's league.

Cam Robinson did a great job breaking down the differences between Svechnikov and Zadina's goal-scoring abilities here: https://dobberprospects.com/prospect...-the-nhl-more/

[fungchen3]

I'd be willing to trade Mittelstadt for the #2 pick but I wouldn't add anything to it. Just comes down to personal preference for me.

Sounds like fungchen3 has been drinking the World Juniors Kool-Aid but the latest TSN Drat Ranking revealed that NHL scouts see some separation between Svechnikov and Zadina. It's good to remember that Zadina is a year older, and that plays a big part in their projection for the future. I think Svechnikov is the better player right now, and when you add in the age difference, it just makes the difference between them more clear. Some scouts also think that Zadina will become more of a playmaker at the NHL level which would hurt his value in OP's league.

Cam Robinson did a great job breaking down the differences between Svechnikov and Zadina's goal-scoring abilities here: https://dobberprospects.com/prospect...-the-nhl-more/

JP

I read that piece by Cam Robinson recently. But he even said [in terms of goal scoring] he'd take Svechnikov by "the slimmest of margins." Zadina's bread and butter is his blistering release and goal scoring ability. I'm not saying he'll be Laine's caliber as a goal scorer, but any sccout speculating "Zadina will become a playmaker in the NHL" is silly to me - kinda like saying Tarasenko, Forsberg, Perry, etc. will be playmakers at the next level. Or that Quinn Hughes and Adam Boqvist will become stay-at-home defensemen. I don't see any coach suppressing Zadina's shot. And he loves to shoot. The thing is, he's not a selfish shooter, so he will pass, and is creative. My only concern with Zadina is his skating, but just like with Fil Forsberg, he gets from A-to-B fine.

I haven't been overly impressed by Svechnikov for most of the year. I think he's a very good prospect - I even had his offense on par with Mittelstadt and Zadina, with a better 200 foot game. Like I said, he could be the best NHLer of the group, I just don't expect insane offense from him. I'm often leery of junior players who score a bunch of goals by driving the net, not being able to continue that in the NHL. I felt the same way about Evander Kane, who is a decent scorer, but far from "the next Iginla" like some speculated.

Of course I can be completely wrong, and Svechnikov could be the next Pastrnak or Kucherov, but I just don't see it. I think there's a better chance that Zadina becomes a very high-end goal scorer. And, since the OP's format rewards goals, I give him the edge.

We will see though!

[Axeman33]

Every year we have some of these threads and if there's one thing I've learned over the years is people overvalue their draft picks because of the excitement of making the pick. We all love to make high draft picks but eventually the shine wears off.

Last year, Mittlestadt wasn;t even in the discussion (for 99% of the leagues I'd say) to be a top two pick. It was Hischier or Patrick and even after that, Mitts might have still slipped. Fast forward to today and here we are talking about Mitts for the 2nd overall. His value has climbed dramatically in a year and I dont see that slowing down.

Personally I'd keep Mittlestadt. True, it's not as exciting as making the high picks, but it's probably just as smart. Like Fung, I think he's that good.

[fungchen3]

Last year, Mittlestadt wasn;t even in the discussion (for 99% of the leagues I'd say) to be a top two pick. It was Hischier or Patrick

Axe,

I just wanna go on record saying that I was on an island waiving the Mittelstadt flag last year. Being from Philly, and a Flyers fan, I told all my friends that the Flyers should "go off the board" and pick him at 2. I thought from day one he had the most offensive upside in the entire draft, which for fantasy is gold. I still think he's going to be a better point producer than Hischier and Patrick down the line. That said, Patrick (if he can stay healthy) and Hischier have other aspects to their game that Mittlestadt doesn't have yet.

But fantasy wise, Mittlestadt will be a goodie. Last year, post draft, Mittlestadt was playing with CHL players and one of the coach's went on record as saying, "this is the only time in my life I've seen a college kid come here and basically toy with junior players."

Mittelstadt is as gifted as they come. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Sabres continue to go with 2C on the main PP unit with Casey eventually taking O'Reilly's spot.

[Jouko-Pouko]

JP

I read that piece by Cam Robinson recently. But he even said [in terms of goal scoring] he'd take Svechnikov by "the slimmest of margins." Zadina's bread and butter is his blistering release and goal scoring ability. I'm not saying he'll be Laine's caliber as a goal scorer, but any sccout speculating "Zadina will become a playmaker in the NHL" is silly to me - kinda like saying Tarasenko, Forsberg, Perry, etc. will be playmakers at the next level. Or that Quinn Hughes and Adam Boqvist will become stay-at-home defensemen. I don't see any coach suppressing Zadina's shot. And he loves to shoot. The thing is, he's not a selfish shooter, so he will pass, and is creative. My only concern with Zadina is his skating, but just like with Fil Forsberg, he gets from A-to-B fine.

I haven't been overly impressed by Svechnikov for most of the year. I think he's a very good prospect - I even had his offense on par with Mittelstadt and Zadina, with a better 200 foot game. Like I said, he could be the best NHLer of the group, I just don't expect insane offense from him. I'm often leery of junior players who score a bunch of goals by driving the net, not being able to continue that in the NHL. I felt the same way about Evander Kane, who is a decent scorer, but far from "the next Iginla" like some speculated.

Of course I can be completely wrong, and Svechnikov could be the next Pastrnak or Kucherov, but I just don't see it. I think there's a better chance that Zadina becomes a very high-end goal scorer. And, since the OP's format rewards goals, I give him the edge.

We will see though!

There are definitely some people who like Zadina as much as you do. For example, Mitch Brown from The Athletic wrote a great article about Zadina's goal-scoring abilities: Why Filip Zadina is the draft?s premier NHL-ready sniper.

But I'd say majority believe Svechnikov will be the better goal-scorer. This is from The Athletic Mock Draft:

In Svechnikov, they get the best pure goal scorer in the class and a player who can create for his linemates when he?s tightly checked. Unlike Filip Zadina, Svechnikov doesn?t need the puck to make plays as a carrier, which will allow him to score with a variety of linemates. Svechnikov can break open games in a split second, and has 40-goal upside. He?s also ready to play in the NHL next year. ? Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler)

(By the way, it was also Wheeler who said Zadina will be a high-end playmaker at the NHL level.)

EDIT: Just wanted to add this great graph from Mitch Brown's Twitter account:

[fungchen3]

There are definitely some people who like Zadina as much as you do. For example, Mitch Brown from The Athletic wrote a great article about Zadina's goal-scoring abilities: Why Filip Zadina is the draft?s premier NHL-ready sniper.

JP

Thanks for sharing - interesting stuff for sure.
I'm down with Mitch Brown!!
Somebody buy that man a beer!

In all seriousness though, I guess we'll see. I'm old school. Not that i don't like stats, analytics, what have you, but I trust my eyes and gut more than anything - not always right of course, but that's how I evaluate, then dig deeper into the digits. The funny thing is, there's a chance one of Svech or Zadina will fall to me in my main league, and I'm obviously hoping for Zadina, but I would take Svech without thinking twice if Zadina goes. Goals and D points are gold in my league, so snipers and high-end D are gobbled up quick.

Watching Svechnikov over the last two years, I keep saying to myself, "he reminds me exactly of Kuznetsov at the same age, but a wing version who is a little more physical." So I think he oozes talent. Some think he'll make an immediate impact like Matthews or Laine, and I just don't see that. But we'll know by Feb of 19. And, in a straight points league, I'd give him the nod over Zadina, as I think he'll get more overall points. But I'm still thinking Zadina ends up the better sniper in the NHL, and with goals worth double, I really like him.

[Belexus75]

Every year we have some of these threads and if there's one thing I've learned over the years is people overvalue their draft picks because of the excitement of making the pick. We all love to make high draft picks but eventually the shine wears off.

Last year, Mittlestadt wasn;t even in the discussion (for 99% of the leagues I'd say) to be a top two pick. It was Hischier or Patrick and even after that, Mitts might have still slipped. Fast forward to today and here we are talking about Mitts for the 2nd overall. His value has climbed dramatically in a year and I dont see that slowing down.

Personally I'd keep Mittlestadt. True, it's not as exciting as making the high picks, but it's probably just as smart. Like Fung, I think he's that good.

exactly what i tried to say above even if it didnt come out that way lol....pick looses value as soon as player gets selected...

[Jouko-Pouko]

JP

Thanks for sharing - interesting stuff for sure.
I'm down with Mitch Brown!!
Somebody buy that man a beer!

In all seriousness though, I guess we'll see. I'm old school. Not that i don't like stats, analytics, what have you, but I trust my eyes and gut more than anything - not always right of course, but that's how I evaluate, then dig deeper into the digits. The funny thing is, there's a chance one of Svech or Zadina will fall to me in my main league, and I'm obviously hoping for Zadina, but I would take Svech without thinking twice if Zadina goes. Goals and D points are gold in my league, so snipers and high-end D are gobbled up quick.

Watching Svechnikov over the last two years, I keep saying to myself, "he reminds me exactly of Kuznetsov at the same age, but a wing version who is a little more physical." So I think he oozes talent. Some think he'll make an immediate impact like Matthews or Laine, and I just don't see that. But we'll know by Feb of 19. And, in a straight points league, I'd give him the nod over Zadina, as I think he'll get more overall points. But I'm still thinking Zadina ends up the better sniper in the NHL, and with goals worth double, I really like him.

I guess I'm a new school guy then because I like to take as much input as possible - comments from trusted scouts, analytics, and the good old eye test. It's impossible to watch all the prospects 50 times a year, so stats can sometimes reveal something you may not see during those ~10 times you watch a player. And different scouts value different things on prospects and most likely watch different games than I do, so it's good to take their inputs as well even though I may not always agree with it. But to each their own - everyone can scout prospects just as they wish.

[SergeP]

Thanks for the comments and analysis guys, some great stuff as always. Repped everyone I could, some of you apparently get too much from me and I need to spread it around before I can hit you again.

After reading through I think I'll stick with Mittelstadt. One thing I failed to mention is that I also own the #3 pick in the draft so I'll end up with one of Svech/Zadina anyway and I kind of like being 3rd since it takes the guess work out of it for me. I just take whoever is left between the 2, no need to rack my brain figuring out which guy to go with.