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Thread: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

  1. #1
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    Default Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    So it's way too early for this, and a lot can change, but I'm bored and curious to start gathering early thoughts on this. This is a 12 team league with 4 keepers each year. PPR. However, we added a clause this year about designating a 5th player for preseason trade talks. Here are my worthy options:

    LeSean McCoy
    Kareem Hunt
    Julio Jones
    Keenan Allen
    Michael Thomas
    Rob Gronkowski

    There are some other decent names, but no one else worth conversing about. My original thought was keep McCoy, Hunt, Jones and Thomas, while shopping Gronk as my 5th based on name. However, Allen had a nice season and is younger than most people realize. Do I dare go younger and let go of Shady? Keep Hunt/Jones/Allen/Thomas and be set at WR for a while? I've had Gronk for a long time, but can't see keeping him in a dynasty league as him and Brady get closer to the sunset. Thanks for the thoughts all.
    All trade questions are for a 30 team keeper league with 27 man rosters. Scoring for skaters are accumulated from points (ES, PP, SH) and plus/minus rating.

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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    LeSean McCoy - I am concerned about his age and think other GMs would be as well. I Would let him go because you got other, safer options
    Kareem Hunt - Must keep after last year!!
    Julio Jones - Debate below
    Keenan Allen- Debate below
    Michael Thomas - His target share and his talent and age - definite keeper
    Rob Gronkowski - Still the best TE in the game.. others are getting closer... but you got to keep him!

    It comes down to Allen vs Jones here. And it is a horribly tough decision. Lets look at important factors:

    Age - Allen (26 years) Jones (29 years) - So slight advantage to Allen, but its not like Jones is old by any terms. (TIE)

    Injury - Allen has missed a lot of games in the recent history. Jones hasn't missed as much time since 2013. Having a keeper that isn't an injury risk is important. But anyone in the NFL is an injury risk. But Allen has missed a lot where Jones has been healthy. (Advantage -Jones)

    Receptions - Allen had 102 receptions last year, a career high by like 25. Jones had 88 receptions last year, quite a bit less than career year. If we are basing it off just last year, the advantage is for Allen for having 14 more receptions and he was lighting it up at the end of the season. If we base it on the career receptions per year, Jones has the advantage beause he has several 80 + receptions with a high of 136. (TIE)

    TDs - Allen had 6 last year, Jones had 3 last year. TDs are so hard to predict and it is not like Allen had 8 more TDs than Allen, a gap of 3 TDs is minimal (TIE)

    Team offense
    - Rivers is 36 years old. Matt Ryan is 32. Both have talented backfields. Allen and Jones are both the main target for these quarterbacks (TIE)

    So basically this is as close as it can get.

    Conclusion -

    Base on my analysis above, I would have to go with Jones, but by the tiniest of margins. And it is only because Allen's injury risk scares me. But as I mentioned above, injury risk is such a fickle item to base a keeper decision on. Look at top-notch keepers last year David Johnson and Odell Beckham JR... both injured early and without much injury history. So basically it is a very weak tie breaker. And even as I am typing this I am trying to find a reason to recommend Allen because I have high expectations for the Chargers offense this year and fell in love with Allen late in the season last year cause he was amazing. And it might be some bias against Jones because he plays for Atlanta which is in the same division as CArolina. I think you have to go with the guy you trust most and hope they don't get injured!!
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  3. #3
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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    Wow thanks for that PH! Keep in mind, I have the ability to trade one player that I don't keep. You don't think I should hang onto all of Hunt/Thomas/Jones/Allen and try to land a high pick for Gronk? I just feel like Gronk is nearing the end of the dominance.
    All trade questions are for a 30 team keeper league with 27 man rosters. Scoring for skaters are accumulated from points (ES, PP, SH) and plus/minus rating.

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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    To me the argument is between Gronk/McCoy/Allen for the last keeper spot.

    I'd float them all in trade talks obviously see what ya fetch. The next would be what you think you'll be able to get in the re-draft.

    If you can't trade anyone, I'd keep the guy you think you won't be able to get back in the draft, which would be Gronk I think.

    All 3 can outperform each other though. You can't make a wrong decision really. RBs are now not as shallow as they once were, so it's not like you need to keep 2 RBs like in the past.
    12 team, H2H, 6 keeper league
    G, A, Pts, +/-, PPP, PIM, FW
    W, GAA, S%, Saves
    2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G
    C: Backstrom, Stamkos
    RW: Tarasenko, Marner
    LW:
    D: Karlsson
    G: Andersen

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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    PPR I'd keep Hunt/Jones/Allen/Thomas ... I'd float out gronks name for a pick, he isn't in this offseason and is noncommittal towards next season with Bellichek.
    16 Team H2H Dynasty
    G A Pt PIM SoG PPP H+B FOW DZS
    W Svs GAA Sv%

    C Scheifele Kuzy Wenneberg Eller
    LW Domi Aho Ritchie Sobotka
    RW Tarasenko J Williams Laine Sheary
    D Klefbom M Rielly Spurgeon Provorov Ellis MacAvoy
    R Dvorak Kase Schmaltz Anston-Reese Lindell Dahlin

    G Crawford C Anderson
    R Kuemper

    M Thomas White Bjork Klostin Raddysh Senyshyn Tolvanen Kravtsov Ylonen Dobson Soderstorm Gilles Gustavsson Point Khakonen


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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by WeissAsNice View Post
    So it's way too early for this, and a lot can change, but I'm bored and curious to start gathering early thoughts on this. This is a 12 team league with 4 keepers each year. PPR. However, we added a clause this year about designating a 5th player for preseason trade talks. Here are my worthy options:

    LeSean McCoy
    Kareem Hunt
    Julio Jones
    Keenan Allen
    Michael Thomas
    Rob Gronkowski

    There are some other decent names, but no one else worth conversing about. My original thought was keep McCoy, Hunt, Jones and Thomas, while shopping Gronk as my 5th based on name. However, Allen had a nice season and is younger than most people realize. Do I dare go younger and let go of Shady? Keep Hunt/Jones/Allen/Thomas and be set at WR for a while? I've had Gronk for a long time, but can't see keeping him in a dynasty league as him and Brady get closer to the sunset. Thanks for the thoughts all.

    I'm keeping Jones, Allen and Thomas for sure in a ppr. My last keeper would be McCoy. I think he has another season of RB1 numbers from him. Also, you will be able to get a nice haul for Hunt. I'm thinking you could get a 1st round pick this year plus a 1st or 2nd next year.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    Bumping this because I'm 3 weeks away from the trading period opening up. My current thought process is keep the WR triumvirate of Jones/Thomas/Allen, as well as Hunt. I already have someone dangling a 1st round pick for Gronk. Guess Shady goes back into the pool, but at his age and with BUF's issues, it's not the end of the world.
    All trade questions are for a 30 team keeper league with 27 man rosters. Scoring for skaters are accumulated from points (ES, PP, SH) and plus/minus rating.

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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by WeissAsNice View Post
    Bumping this because I'm 3 weeks away from the trading period opening up. My current thought process is keep the WR triumvirate of Jones/Thomas/Allen, as well as Hunt. I already have someone dangling a 1st round pick for Gronk. Guess Shady goes back into the pool, but at his age and with BUF's issues, it's not the end of the world.
    Given the PPR format, that's how I'd play it too. I wouldn't worry about McCoy.

    Age, continued questions with his line and supporting cast, and a real risk of either suspension or being outright cut (yup, there is a risk of that as this situation continues to unfold) make McCoy expendable without much heartburn for me.
    14 Team H2H Dynasty League (14 keepers, no farm)
    Weekly Starts (3C, 5W, 5D, 1Util, 2G)
    G, A, PPP, SOG, BS, +/-, GAA, W+OTL, SV%


    C: Backstrom/Giroux/Rakell/Stepan/Domi
    W: Ovechkin/Hall/E.Kane/Neal/Bjorkstrand/Yamamoto/Parise
    D: Klingberg/Faulk/Gardiner/Provorov/Theodore/Russell
    G: Fleury/Raanta

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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    Kareem Hunt
    Julio Jones
    Keenan Allen
    Michael Thomas
    Rob Gronkowski

    Those are my five keepers, off field issues for McCoy aside. In PPR formats RBs 2 nd 3 are much easier to replace than in standard scoring scoring formats where you do not have the point per compensating for any lack of TD production. So RBs like Tarik Cohen, Duke Johnson, Dion Lewis (emphasis added), Chris Thompson all serve as viable RB2s with upside.

    Regardless of format (eg, dynasty, keeper, redraft) the object of the exercise is to win championships every year. That core above of pass catchers and Hunt as your RB1 crushes. Keep it!

    EDIT: how many TD opportunities will McCoy have in that anemic offense immersed in negative (see: heavy passing) game script. No Thank ya
    @SmittysRant

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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Bazz View Post
    PPR I'd keep Hunt/Jones/Allen/Thomas ... I'd float out gronks name for a pick, he isn't in this offseason and is noncommittal towards next season with Bellichek.
    This ^^^^^^^
    @SmittysRant

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Another Early Keeper Conundrum

    Sweet guys, unless something crazy happens in the next couple of weeks, I'll be keeping Jones/Allen/Thomas/Hunt and dealing Gronk for most likely a first round pick. Appreciate the thoughts!
    All trade questions are for a 30 team keeper league with 27 man rosters. Scoring for skaters are accumulated from points (ES, PP, SH) and plus/minus rating.

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