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Thread: Dahlin upside and timeline

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    jman's Avatar
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    Default Dahlin upside and timeline

    So we know this guy is borderline generational or actually generational. Just looking to streamline opinions here.

    I'll start.

    upside: 80pt

    1st yr: 45pt
    2nd yr: 50pt
    3rd yr: 50pt
    4th yr: 70pt


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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    You have to remember that he is an 18 year old defenseman which is the hardest position to transition from, coming over from international ice that hasn't played the North American game aside from tournaments. Also with Ristolainen there it gives Dahlin some time to adjust and I think will be better for him down the road. I am tempering expectations off the bat.

    I think he takes a similar path as Hedman, but hits his stride a bit sooner. 30 points wouldn't be a bad first year for him.

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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    I think he plays in the NHL next year and sees the press box a few times to watch the game and learn from there.

    My guess is 25 points next year. And that is not a hit on his talent... that is a hit on Buffalo's scoring if they draft him.
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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    He won’t be in the box, I say 42 next year. Casey, Alex, Eichel, Okposo, Reinhart and ROR the Sabres will start to show promise.
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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    Quote Originally Posted by Bazz View Post
    He won’t be in the box, I say 42 next year. Casey, Alex, Eichel, Okposo, Reinhart and ROR the Sabres will start to show promise.
    I have a hard time accepting Okposo as an asset to any other players fantasy value.. sub for Ristorante and I’ll agree... well that and Nylander needs to step up in a big way
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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    I put this in another thread, but I figured I would share my opinion here, as this pertains 100% to Dahlin ...

    "Dahlin is going to be a different animal. He is in the perfect situation on a young, up-and-coming Swords squad, with players like Eichel, Mittelstadt and Nylander who can match his creativity. He also has a monster like Ristolainen to feed one-timers to.

    Here's what you'll see from Dahlin:

    2018-19: 10g/32a/42pts
    2019-20: 11g/35a/46pts
    2020-21: 17g/40a/57pts
    2021-22 (and on): average of 17g/45a/62pts (some years 54, a couple that are 68-70)

    And his career year will be something like: 22g/53a/75pts

    I don't expect him to hit Karlsson / Burns numbers, but he'll reach Hedman. And he'll be in the Subban, Carlson, Josi, Klingberg, Gostisbehere, rat race every year by 2020-21."

    Personally, I don't see him hitting the mega 80 number, but I could see 75 as a career year. He's too well-rounded to be a strictly offensive animal. In Ottawa, the offense goes through Karlsson, in Buffalo, there will be multiple touch points. So I expect Dahlin to fall between Subban and Karlsson offensively. I think we're looking at Nick Lidstrom numbers, minus the 80 point anomaly.

    Let's not forget, Ekblad came into the league with almost the same fanfare (generational type defenseman) and he hasn't hit 40 yet. I think Dahlin is more dynamic than Ekblad - and will produce more for sure - but 80 is reserved for a demigod like Karlsson. Even freaks that were converted from F to D like Burns and Buff fall short.

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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    Quote Originally Posted by fungchen3 View Post
    I put this in another thread, but I figured I would share my opinion here, as this pertains 100% to Dahlin ...

    "Dahlin is going to be a different animal. He is in the perfect situation on a young, up-and-coming Swords squad, with players like Eichel, Mittelstadt and Nylander who can match his creativity. He also has a monster like Ristolainen to feed one-timers to.

    Here's what you'll see from Dahlin:

    2018-19: 10g/32a/42pts
    2019-20: 11g/35a/46pts
    2020-21: 17g/40a/57pts
    2021-22 (and on): average of 17g/45a/62pts (some years 54, a couple that are 68-70)

    And his career year will be something like: 22g/53a/75pts

    I don't expect him to hit Karlsson / Burns numbers, but he'll reach Hedman. And he'll be in the Subban, Carlson, Josi, Klingberg, Gostisbehere, rat race every year by 2020-21."

    Personally, I don't see him hitting the mega 80 number, but I could see 75 as a career year. He's too well-rounded to be a strictly offensive animal. In Ottawa, the offense goes through Karlsson, in Buffalo, there will be multiple touch points. So I expect Dahlin to fall between Subban and Karlsson offensively. I think we're looking at Nick Lidstrom numbers, minus the 80 point anomaly.

    Let's not forget, Ekblad came into the league with almost the same fanfare (generational type defenseman) and he hasn't hit 40 yet. I think Dahlin is more dynamic than Ekblad - and will produce more for sure - but 80 is reserved for a demigod like Karlsson. Even freaks that were converted from F to D like Burns and Buff fall short.
    I couldn't agree with Fungchen more. And I've been saying the same to my Fellow GM's in each of the league's I'm in. Temper expectations to start. And no... he is NOT the McDavid of Defensemen. Sure... there's always a chance that he could prove me wrong, but it's far easier and more likely for him to fall into the Subban, Carlson, Josi etc that Fungchen stated. That's exactly where I see him. If he's drafted with that standard in mind, owners shouldn't be disappointed. If you're expecting a PPG player (something the McDavid of D, Erik Karlsson (and slightly behind him Burns) still is challenged to do, then prepare for a long wait and most likely a disappointment.
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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    I'm fine with giving him point-per-game UPSIDE but that shouldn't be your expectation, that's the best case scenario.

    40 points in his rookie season would be great, and it's difficult to see him scoring more than that.
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    Default Re: Dahlin upside and timeline

    Season 1: 35-40 pts
    Season 2: 35-50 pts
    Season 3: 40-60 pts
    Season 4: 50-70 pts

    Kind of a wide range but it's fairly difficult to predict scoring that far down the line.

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