Matheson + Johansen vs Montour + Schenn

[ginf17]

Jut got an interesting offer in my keeper league where we count the goal and assist for all players. No other stats are calculated. Only goal and assists. 2 pts per goal for a defenceman.

I don't know what to do. Hold my Schenn and Montour or go with the package of Matheson and Johansen? In my opinion Schenn is rising in St-Louis, as Johansen is fading in Nashville. He score less goal and shoot less comparing of what he was doing in CLB, but I think he is an higher reward potential than Schenn.

My roster is not important here, because all these player will play in my team.

Wainting to hear you opinion on this one.

Thanks

[Belexus75]

i think year to year it will differ on which duo will get more points..its so close...i personally love Schenn so i would stay with what you got but either way i dont think you can go wrong

[stevegamer]

Need roster sizes & starting requirements here. It's close so positional scarcity is important.

[lucafen4]

if you count any peripherals at all - give me Schenn. RyJo's declining shot totals over the past several years have warded me off of him almost completely. RyJo gives some periph stats, but Schenn's at a different level in hits and shots.

[Kofax]

I'll take Shcenn/Montour without much thought here.

To me they are the two best players in the deal.

[nhloffencefirst]

I'll take Shcenn/Montour without much thought here.

To me they are the two best players in the deal.

I cannot agree with the post above. We're in Keeper Leagues here, so it's like the Stock Exchange. A year ago, everyone would have said 'Go for Johansen!' With the year Schenn has had, now some have changed their opinion.

I for myself think you should go with those who have the most chance of rising. Schenn just had a career year and RyJo has been ordinary. However, Johansen is showing what he's really made of in the playoffs. I think Schenn will regress and Johansen will rise in the next few years. He has more to offer, unless blocks and shots come into the equation. With his vision, he has more potential for a Keeper League. He could also start shooting again and score more than 30, like he did a few years back. Has I said, we're talking Keeper League here.

As for Montour vs Matheson, I love both, but I think Matheson is a little under the radar here. He was fantastic at the end of the year. Nobody knows who will be more productive in a few years. I'd say it's kind of even, but giving Matheson's trend, I'd take a chance on him. Just my opinion. You can't go wrong with either package anyway.

[plug]

I'll take Shcenn/Montour without much thought here.

To me they are the two best players in the deal.

Completely agree with this.

[havanablast21]

Give me Schenn and Montour here.

[MZac]

Schenn and Montour all day

[Axeman33]

I cannot agree with the post above. We're in Keeper Leagues here, so it's like the Stock Exchange. A year ago, everyone would have said 'Go for Johansen!' With the year Schenn has had, now some have changed their opinion.

I for myself think you should go with those who have the most chance of rising. Schenn just had a career year and RyJo has been ordinary. However, Johansen is showing what he's really made of in the playoffs. I think Schenn will regress and Johansen will rise in the next few years. He has more to offer, unless blocks and shots come into the equation. With his vision, he has more potential for a Keeper League. He could also start shooting again and score more than 30, like he did a few years back. Has I said, we're talking Keeper League here.

As for Montour vs Matheson, I love both, but I think Matheson is a little under the radar here. He was fantastic at the end of the year. Nobody knows who will be more productive in a few years. I'd say it's kind of even, but giving Matheson's trend, I'd take a chance on him. Just my opinion. You can't go wrong with either package anyway.

The reason why Schenn had a career year is because of the trade that allowed him to blossom. I think this is what is to come for Schenn, give or take a few points from year to year. RyJo unfortunately has been declining for some strange reason in NSH, especially in the goal department simply because he simply isn't shooting the puck as much as he used to. In the three years in NSH, he's scored 14, 14 and then 15 goals this past season. I think people are seeing what we are seeing for RyJo in NSH. It's too bad too because he's definitely got the skillset and ability to be a 30+G scorer but I dont see it happening in Nashville. I have to disagree with you when you said that Schenn will regress and RyJo will rise. Sure, Schenn may go down a bit on off years, but I think if anyone is going to rise, it's Schenn. RyJo is the guy who has regressed and haven't been able to turn it around and we've seen the same RyJo for three straight years given all the icetime he can handle in the top dog spot. I am not sure what makes you think things are going to change for him. He plays in all key situations, PP1 with their best wingers and D. I just do see RyJo turning it around.

As far as the D goes, Matheson in his second full pro season improved his scoring by three goals and 10 points, surprisingly on less shots taken. Unfortunately, he's a 3rd option for years because both Ekblad and Yandle are 1-2 on the blueline for the Panthers. Montour has his own challenges in Anaheim, but for offensive opportunities, I see Montour as the 2nd best option for the Ducks.

I would keep what you have in Schenn and Montour. It's not a bad offer, but I like your side more.

[Kofax]

I cannot agree with the post above. We're in Keeper Leagues here, so it's like the Stock Exchange. A year ago, everyone would have said 'Go for Johansen!' With the year Schenn has had, now some have changed their opinion.

I for myself think you should go with those who have the most chance of rising. Schenn just had a career year and RyJo has been ordinary. However, Johansen is showing what he's really made of in the playoffs. I think Schenn will regress and Johansen will rise in the next few years. He has more to offer, unless blocks and shots come into the equation. With his vision, he has more potential for a Keeper League. He could also start shooting again and score more than 30, like he did a few years back. Has I said, we're talking Keeper League here.

As for Montour vs Matheson, I love both, but I think Matheson is a little under the radar here. He was fantastic at the end of the year. Nobody knows who will be more productive in a few years. I'd say it's kind of even, but giving Matheson's trend, I'd take a chance on him. Just my opinion. You can't go wrong with either package anyway.

The numbers tell the story here and they support Schenn and Montour.

Schenn started hot and then slowed, but overall, he posted 70 points and a career year because of the opportunity provided to him:
- Bump in minutes to 19:44 from 17:48
- Resulted in increased shot totals to 210 from 178
- S% and 5on5 S% remain in line with his historical averages
Thus he is very capable of maintaining this production.

Similarly, it's very easy to support Johansen's current production of 61 points as well.
- Minutes remained consistent at 18:33 vs 18:50 last season
- BUT his shot production dropped to 129 from 154
- S% and 5on5S% remain in line with his historic numbers (slightly above actually, same as Schenn)
(btw, he's playoff S% is 22% compared to 9.2% for his regular season average. He's having a great playoffs, but it's not sustainable)
When he put up 70 points in the past, he was taking 200 shots (same as Schenn), but that was 3-4 years ago. Unless he can find a way to start shooting more again, I wouldn't expect more than 50-60 points from him.

Schenn is the safe and easy pick rather than counting on Johansen to rediscover his shooting ability from 3-4 years ago.

Same thing for the defensemen:

Montour in his second season put up 32 points:
- Minutes increased from 17:23 to 20:28 showing increased trust
- PP TOI was 2:15 showing opportunity
- S% and 5on5S% are close to historical averages and at expected values
Given the continued growth and opportunity, we expect his production to increase

Matheson in his second full season put up 27 points:
- Minutes remained at 21:20 showing great trust
- PP TOI limited to 1:07 showing moderate opportunity
- As axeman pointed out, he's behind Ekblad and Yandle for PP time for the forseeable future limiting opportunity
- S% is a little high compared to historic but reasonable
- 5on5S% is a little low, but in line with historic


Montour and Matheson may be similarly capable offensively, but the biggest difference is opportunity. Montour appears to have a direct line to top line PP minutes, which is essential for elite defensive production. Matheson on the other hand has two players ahead of him for PP time which will limit his opportunity to produce. It also seems that Florida is more confident with Matheson in a defensive roll, which is great for his real life value, but poor for his fantasy value.

All the evidence points to Schenn and Montour being the more valuable players for fantasy production. Anything can happen and it's fair if you believe that Johansen/Matheson will end up being more valuable, but in my opinion, at this point there really isn't any evidence suggesting that will be the case.