Originally Posted by
fungchen3
Hey jaga, this is not an easy call, but I'll spitball out loud ...
Strome has been one of the top NHL drafted, forward prospects (if not the top) for a couple of years now. I thought he was a lock to make the Yotes this past year but he was sent to the AHL, where he played well, putting up 53 points in 50 games. In 21 NHL games this year, he scored 9 points - looking good late in the season, as you said. However, that was late in the season when the Dogs were toast and there was no pressure, etc. So, while it was a good sign, I wouldn't be overly seduced by that. I'll start with Strome; let's dig in ...
THE GOOD:
- He is a center, which could give him access to more point opportunities and TOI if he pans out.
- Good NHL size: 6-3, 190.
- He was a 3rd overall pick, ahead of players such as Marner, Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski, Rantanen, Barzal, Connor, etc.
- He put up over a PPG in the AHL this year, during his 1st stint in the A.
- He looked good during his late-season NHL call-up.
- If he stays in the desert, he will have some nice, young talent to eventually play with.
THE BAD:
- His skating and two-way play hasn't been sound enough for him to break into the NHL full-time.
- He had a very unimpressive showing at Yotes development camp this year, when many thought he was ready to secure a gig with the big club.
- He is 21 years old and has already been surpassed by many in his draft class, including the ones I named ^ as well as Boeser, Konecny, Chabot, DeBrusk, Meier, Beauvillier, etc. That's half the pack of players drafted behind him in the 1st round.
- He hasn't been good (or well-rounded) enough to crack the Yotes - a team starved for talent, which has promoted many youngsters recently, including Chychrun, Keller and Dvorak.
- His bloodlines. For whatever reason, the Strome brothers have all been rated good-to-excellent prospects, and none of them have really done anything in the NHL. Ryan is 24 and has already been traded, after putting up a modest career high 50 points in his best NHL season. Many thought he would blossom after being moved to Edmonton and he put up a measly 34 points in 82 games.
- You have to wonder if the Coyotes have developed him properly, but the fact that other young players have performed well makes me think they can develop.
- His fantasy value has taken a hit and GM's are wondering if he's going to be a late-bloomer or bust altogether.
As for Tolvanen, there's not as much to dissect. I mean, he's only 18 years old, and to the surprise of many, became one of the most hyped players of the 2017 draft class this season. He came out of nowhere to dominate the KHL and solidify a sign and call up with the Preds at the end of the season. Let's look at him ...
THE GOOD:
- He's still a puppy at 18.
- He dominated the KHL this year as an 18 year old, breaking the records of great KHLers such as Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, etc.
- His shot is absolutely lethal.
- He was drafted 30th overall in the 2017 draft but only 7 players selected in the first 3 rounds have played more NHL games than him so far.
- He has a very dynamic skill set and is a human highlight reel.
- The Preds could use another scoring winger and he'll be given every chance to earn a full-time gig next year, and if he does, he'll likely play a top-6 role and get PP2 time.
- He has awesome trade value in fantasy.
THE BAD:
- He dropped in the 2017 draft. He was a projected top-15 pick and ended up dropping to 30th, which means multiple teams saw something in his game they didn't like.
- His shot has been elite at other levels, but so was Teemu Pulkkinen's.
- He didn't look particularly good during his 3 game stint at the end of the season. But, he was coming off a lot of hockey, and walking into a championship-caliber NHL room.
- His two-way play has been questioned, so has his lack of hustle and penchant for cherry-picking.
- He's on the smaller side: 5-10, 180. This isn't a flaw, but it's not an advantage.
I guess, all-in-all, there more to consider with Strome. But the question I am asking myself is: Will Tolvanen surpass where Strome is today, 3 years down the road when he's 21? And the answer is most likely yes. If Tolvanen comes to camp in September fit, focused, and ready to roll, he should be able to sure up a job in Nashville and immediately start paying dividends. His shot alone makes him a future top PP fixture, unless he busts altogether.
IMO, 2018-19 is a do-or-die year for Strome. If he can't make the Yotes, gets traded, or makes the team and has a horrible season as a 22 year old, the B word will begin to cross my mind. If he steps in and flirts with 50 points as an NHL rook, I'll believe a little bit, assuming he passes the eye test as well.
If I had to speculate on their future production, I would say ...
STROME:
- Lights Out Case (30/50/80, Anze Kopitar/Nicklas Backstrom) 5%
- Best Case (30/40/70, Ryan Johansen) 25%
- Modest case (20/30/50, current day Adam Henrique) 50%
- Worst Case (total bust, NHL dropout) 20%
TOLVANEN:
- Lights Out Case (45/45/90, Nikita Kucherov/Patrik Laine) 10%
- Best Case (40/35/75, William Karlsson/Phil Kessel) 35%
- Modest Case (30/25/55, Cam Atkinson) 45%
- Worst Case (Teemu Pulkinen, NHL dropout) 10%
If it were me, I would roll the dice on Tolvanen, especially if you could get some nice sweetener added in the deal. The main reason is that Tolvanen is only a baby at 18 and projects to not only be an NHL regular - but perhaps a surprise rookie - next year. I think both prospects could be considered boom-or-bust, but Tolvanen possesses something that Strome doesn't - an elite shot and uncanny goal scoring ability.
Tolvanen + for D Strome
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