Trade offer. Will Rep.

[DocMcPuffin]

Hey folks. Team in Sig. Need some advice on a trade that was offered. A fellow GM wants the 3rd overall pick in this years draft. He already has 1 and 2 locked down. He offered me the 8th overall and 11th overall. That would mean I most likely pick 4 or 5th overall, 8th overall and 10th and 11th overall. I'm a rebuilding team so obviously 4 1st rounders are great but is it worth giving up possibly Dahlin, Svechnikov and Zadina? We have 11 teams currently in our pool.

[GoNucks]

It's quite a deep draft so I would definitely take that deal, Dahlin won't fall to #3 so move the pick and gain 8 & 11

[Jouko-Pouko]

I would stay at #3. You'll get a great player at #3, there are question marks with players in that #8 to #11 range.

[Cdot588]

Don't take the Deal. If you can get Svechnikov or Zadina your team will be much better than it is now. After the top 3-5 picks this year, the talent starts to fall off. You might find a sleeper, but the top 3 guys are pretty much sure things.

[DocMcPuffin]

Thanks guys! I ended up taking the deal. I know the top 3 will more than likely be great players but for me, one great player perhaps won't help more than 4 good players potentially. If I luck out and get Wahlstrom at 4, I'll be happy. Plus next year I'll the best shot at J.Hughes.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Thanks guys! I ended up taking the deal. I know the top 3 will more than likely be great players but for me, one great player perhaps won't help more than 4 good players potentially. If I luck out and get Wahlstrom at 4, I'll be happy. Plus next year I'll the best shot at J.Hughes.

You got four 1st round picks for #3? I thought it was just two. If you already had two 1st rounders, that's irrelevant.

[DocMcPuffin]

You got four 1st round picks for #3? I thought it was just two. If you already had two 1st rounders, that's irrelevant.

I originally had 3, 4 or 5 and 10 before the offer. I now have 4 or 5th, 8, 10 and 11th overall. Again, I know those 3 are VERY good but I think with some careful thought, I can still get some good value out of those 4 picks. My prospect pool is lacking considering I have to call up most of them or lose them all together.

[Jouko-Pouko]

I originally had 3, 4 or 5 and 10 before the offer. I now have 4 or 5th, 8, 10 and 11th overall. Again, I know those 3 are VERY good but I think with some careful thought, I can still get some good value out of those 4 picks. My prospect pool is lacking considering I have to call up most of them or lose them all together.

Already having four 1st rounders makes trading down even worse IMO. Your team needs elite talent, and that's not available with picks #8 and #11. You could have had it with pick #3 but you gave it away. I would much rather have one 80-point player than two 65-point players. But to each their own - I just think your rebuild just got longer and harder.

[DocMcPuffin]

Maybe my wording is messed up. I had 3 1st round picks. The 1st would be 3rd overall. After that it would either be 4th or 5th overall as the two GM's are very close in points. Then, I'd be guaranteed the 10th overall. So, 3rd (for sure,) 4th or 5th overall (depending on final standings as both GM's are seperated by only 8 points) and 10th overall (for sure.) Now, I will pick 4th or 5th overall, 8, 10 and 11th. Make sense? I'm looking at quantity over quality at this point. Considering my team has a bunch of hacks for the most part, one guy like Svechnikov or Zadina doesn't really mean much. BUT, if I draft smart, and say 3 out of the 4 picks work out, would it not be better to have 3 solid players over one really good player? Plus, like I said for next year, I have the best shot at drafting Hughes who in my opinion is better than anyone in the top 3 this year. Thank you all for your input, though. Love hearing what you guys have to say.

[Jouko-Pouko]

Maybe my wording is messed up. I had 3 1st round picks. The 1st would be 3rd overall. After that it would either be 4th or 5th overall as the two GM's are very close in points. Then, I'd be guaranteed the 10th overall. So, 3rd (for sure,) 4th or 5th overall (depending on final standings as both GM's are seperated by only 8 points) and 10th overall (for sure.) Now, I will pick 4th or 5th overall, 8, 10 and 11th. Make sense? I'm looking at quantity over quality at this point. Considering my team has a bunch of hacks for the most part, one guy like Svechnikov or Zadina doesn't really mean much. BUT, if I draft smart, and say 3 out of the 4 picks work out, would it not be better to have 3 solid players over one really good player? Plus, like I said for next year, I have the best shot at drafting Hughes who in my opinion is better than anyone in the top 3 this year. Thank you all for your input, though. Love hearing what you guys have to say.

But it's not "3 solid players over one really good player", it's "3 solid players over one elite player and 2 solid players". Those extra picks make no difference to the trade. Your next year's picks make no difference. The trade is very simple: #3 for #8 and #11. That's all that matters.

Always quality over quantity unless the difference in quality is minimal (which it isn't in this case) or the quantity part is much higher (which it isn't in this case). Like if you were trading #3 for #4 and #5, I could get behind that. Or if you traded #3 for three high-ish 1st rounders. But #8 and #11? That's just not good enough in this draft class.

At some point, you'll have a bunch of 60-point players and you're wishing you could package 3 of them to acquire one 80-point player. But you probably can't because elite players are worth a ton.

[DocMcPuffin]

JP, I already have an 80 point guy in Gaudette HAHAHA! Maybe not but one can dream.

[Bass56]

I would have stuck with the 3rd. You would have gotten Zadina and possibly Tkachuk with your next one. That’s a heck of a 1-2 punch!

Quality over quantity here

[als_revenge]

Hate to say it, but JP is right. Trading 3 for 8 and 11 is a recipe for a longer rebuild. You are trading elite talent for question marks.

Think of it this way....would you trade a shot at McDavid for a couple of pretty good 2nd line players?

I'm exaggerating, but the point holds...

[Bazz]

Could’ve had Zadina/Wahlstrom/Hughes. That’s pretty good in a rebuild, two years ago I had 2/6/7 took Laine/Aho/Keller. I had numerous offers for pick 2 but elite goal scorers don’t grow on trees. Needless to say I hit a homerun which accelerated my rebuild and squeked in. Remember elite talent > mid tier talent.

[chuckcouples]

Taking the deal was a mistake. 3 is greater than 8+11 more times than not.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-spe...value-1.786131

Ignore the average rating category and look at the top 6, top 4, 1G column. 79% of #3 picks become a top 6 forward or top 4 dman or starting goalie while only about 30% of picks at 8 or 11 become that. In most fantasy leagues, 3rd liners are not worth anything because there are a bunch of them available on the waiver wire. Based on your signature, your league only uses 228 skaters. That means less than 75 skaters in your league are not 1st line guys. That makes this trade even worse than I originally thought.