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Thread: 1st overall, who you pick

  1. #16
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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by vandalay View Post
    Ok so this is more of a list for those seeking more immediate production rather than those in leagues with farm systems and/or front-running teams that have the luxury of waiting and going for long-term upside?
    Well, not really. As I said, there's also less risk with someone who is closer to producing. Prospects who are further along could have their development stalled and they never reach their potential. Beyond these eight names I've mentioned, I don't see anyone having a higher upside than Borgstrom.

    I'm a bit lower on Mittelstadt and Zadina than most, so that might be throwing you off, though. A lot of people would probably put them in the top tier but I'm not that high on them.

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Yes, the fact you're not as high on Mittelstadt and Zadina helps me understand, but only a bit.

    I can definitely see some significant upside for Borgstrom. He was a very good college player and is a late bloomer with size. But what I don't see is how he stands out in any significant way from the guys you mentioned before that are 1.5-2 years younger than him and developing really impressively. IMO at most he stands out from that crowd in a marginal way... personal preference, essentially.

    Take Vesalainen, for example. Also a Finn with size and oodles of skill. While Borgstrom put up big numbers in college hockey in his D+2 and D+3 seasons Vesalainen played against men in Liiga in his D+1 season and completed one of the best U19 seasons ever in that league. He finished 18th in the league in scoring despite missing some games due to the WJC and some minor injuries (he was 14th in points per game).

    Borgstrom is now turning pro and should get a few games in this season. But Vesalainen has already been playing pro hockey and will be signing with the Jets once his Liiga season is over. Both guys will be competing for NHL spots next fall.

    Another example: Cale Makar. How is he not in a tier that Borgstrom is in, if not higher?

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by vandalay View Post
    Yes, the fact you're not as high on Mittelstadt and Zadina helps me understand, but only a bit.

    I can definitely see some significant upside for Borgstrom. He was a very good college player and is a late bloomer with size. But what I don't see is how he stands out in any significant way from the guys you mentioned before that are 1.5-2 years younger than him and developing really impressively. IMO at most he stands out from that crowd in a marginal way... personal preference, essentially.

    Take Vesalainen, for example. Also a Finn with size and oodles of skill. While Borgstrom put up big numbers in college hockey in his D+2 and D+3 seasons Vesalainen played against men in Liiga in his D+1 season and completed one of the best U19 seasons ever in that league. He finished 18th in the league in scoring despite missing some games due to the WJC and some minor injuries (he was 14th in points per game).

    Borgstrom is now turning pro and should get a few games in this season. But Vesalainen has already been playing pro hockey and will be signing with the Jets once his Liiga season is over. Both guys will be competing for NHL spots next fall.

    Another example: Cale Makar. How is he not in a tier that Borgstrom is in, if not higher?
    I usually watch between 1 and 3 games of Vesalainen every week (you can find my Liiga report from my signature), and his upside isn't as high as Borgstrom's. I don't know what else to tell you.

    I see a lot of risk in Makar and how his game translates to the NHL. Loads of offensive talent but will his all-around game improve enough to become a player who is trusted to play big minutes at the NHL level? I have my concerns about that. That risk puts him in the next tier for me.

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    I guess we'll just have to disagree. I think the hype on Borgstrom is getting out of control.

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Bazz View Post
    So if Petterson and Middlestat are available that means Tolvanen is as well? So the top 8:
    Dahlin
    Tolvanen
    Pettersson
    Svechnikov
    Middlestat
    Zadina

    So at 8 you?re looking at an Andersson Chityl Whalstrom Necas Boqvist Hughes. You may want to see what it would cost to move up to 4. Pick 8+? If it?s my second I do it, if it?s next years 1st I usually don?t deal my next years 1. Too volatile.
    Iike that list can you keep going? please? lol

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    The trade proposed is a no brainer. If you can get 2 and 8, with the talent available, for just 1, you do that 100 times out of 100

    However, FWIW, I'd take Svechnikov, Zadina, and Tolvanen over both Pettersson and Dahlin. Don't really care if that's a hot taek or not, Dahlin basically has to become Karlsson to be worth 1st overall. even if he produces like Doughty or Hedman, you're probably disappointed.

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by rataylor22 View Post
    The trade proposed is a no brainer. If you can get 2 and 8, with the talent available, for just 1, you do that 100 times out of 100

    However, FWIW, I'd take Svechnikov, Zadina, and Tolvanen over both Pettersson and Dahlin. Don't really care if that's a hot taek or not, Dahlin basically has to become Karlsson to be worth 1st overall. even if he produces like Doughty or Hedman, you're probably disappointed.
    What are your concerns about Pettersson? Why a tier below those other three? I am interested because I have the chance to draft as many as 3 of these players.
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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Pettersson is the top drafted prospect. Draft without reservation.
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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    This seems to be a common topic right now, so I gave it some serious thought and here's where I landed.

    I think these four players form the top tier in prospects who have yet to play in the NHL:
    Dahlin
    Pettersson
    Svechnikov
    Tolvanen

    The exact order of them depends on the league. Defensemen take a bit longer to become elite options, so maybe Dahlin loses value because of that. If I can get any of those four players, I'm happy.

    The next tier of players with no NHL games:
    Mittelstadt
    Borgstrom
    Zadina
    Heiskanen

    These four are also elite prospects but just slightly below the top tier. Again, the exact order could change depending on the league, and again I would be very happy with any of these players.

    Things get very murky after that because then you'll get a long list of prospects who are very good but not quite elite.

    Hopefully this helps. (Yes, I copied this from another thread where something similar was asked.)
    Hey Jouko-Pouko,
    I'm curious as to why you have Svechnikov a tier above Zadina. Most of the reading I've done on them have them pretty even. Mind sharing your reasoning? Always appreciate your insight.
    Thanks!
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  10. #25
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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    It's a couple times I see Zadina lower than Svechnikov and I've even seen people put him out the top 3 for 2018. The usual reasoning is along these lines:
    -Did the most out of events where everyone could see him play, like WJC, and a lot of scouts were there, which makes him consensus #3 and very close to #2 on most lists, but people who've actually followed his season closely realize his usual level of play is lower than what's been showcased in these events.
    -Average acceleration and top speed.
    -Some would call him selfish with the puck, that did not stand out in the games I've seen him play.

    Maybe Jouko-Pouko has something else, but that's the main critics I've seen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ccsitdown View Post
    Hey Jouko-Pouko,
    I'm curious as to why you have Svechnikov a tier above Zadina. Most of the reading I've done on them have them pretty even. Mind sharing your reasoning? Always appreciate your insight.
    Thanks!
    I like Zadina but I'm just really high on Svechnikov and think he could become a special player. I also have my reservations about older players in the draft, and Zadina is a '99 kid compared to most who are '00 born.

    Cam Robinson did a great job breaking down their differences in his ramblings some time back: https://dobberprospects.com/prospect...-the-nhl-more/

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Yeah, I think Svechnikov is clearly better than Zadina. To me he and Pettersson are clearly the two best forward prospects.
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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by mcmcpher2 View Post
    What are your concerns about Pettersson? Why a tier below those other three? I am interested because I have the chance to draft as many as 3 of these players.
    I don't think he's as good? That's not exactly an unpopular opinion across the NHL.

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Jouko-Pouko View Post
    I like Zadina but I'm just really high on Svechnikov and think he could become a special player. I also have my reservations about older players in the draft, and Zadina is a '99 kid compared to most who are '00 born.

    Cam Robinson did a great job breaking down their differences in his ramblings some time back: https://dobberprospects.com/prospect...-the-nhl-more/
    Matthews was the oldest player of his year draft and i pick him 1st anyway. Talent is better than the age!

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    Default Re: 1st overall, who you pick

    Quote Originally Posted by Slythefly View Post
    Matthews was the oldest player of his year draft and i pick him 1st anyway. Talent is better than the age!
    Matthews was also many tiers above where Zadina is. It's fine to be older than others but then you need to be further along in your development. It was very obvious to everyone that Matthews was way ahead of the draft class in his development. Zadina isn't.

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